Polydata

@Naive-Lotion

#44686

0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac

214d· 5410 markets · 6237 tradesVol: $14,513,1652026-06-19T04:36
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

86
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 46%8/20
Profit Factor 32.05x15/15
Sharpe 0.67613/15
Sortino 13.18510/10
EV $+20.59510/10
HHI 11410/10
Profit Days 79%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Naive-Lotion is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #446 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $401,686.94. Over 223 days, they executed 6,237 trades across 814 markets, accumulating a total volume exceeding $14.5 million. Despite the large volume, their portfolio value remains relatively modest at $21,460.45, reflecting a cautious capital deployment. Their smart score of 86 places them in the elite category, signaling strong overall performance.

Naive-Lotion’s strategy leans toward broad market participation with a consistent win rate of 59.5%, though their profit factor of 0.75 suggests that losses occasionally outweigh gains. The absence of weather market trades and zero sell percentage indicates a buy-and-hold or averaging approach, supported by badges like Diamond Hands and DCA Master. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.68 and zero max drawdown duration point to a moderate risk profile with stable equity trends, favoring steady execution over high volatility plays.

Key strengths for Naive-Lotion include disciplined trade frequency, contrarian positioning, and a reliable win streak, which collectively support sustainable profitability. However, the relatively low profit factor and stable but flat equity trend may suggest limited upside momentum. Additionally, the low bot score implies primarily human-driven decisions, which could affect reaction speed in fast-moving markets. Overall, Naive-Lotion demonstrates consistent, risk-aware trading on Polymarket with potential for incremental growth.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Profitable
PnL $+401,687
Contrarian
54% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
DCA Master
avg 7.7 entries/market
Win Streak
18 wins in a row
Whale
$340,733
Consistent
95/120 days
High Roller
$1,528/day
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

2
💰 FINANCE#3$393,491Vol: $13,097,209
SPORTS#6,962$5,674Vol: $1,394,893

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$401,687
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$14,513,165
Total Redeem
$110,984
Portfolio
$21,460
Predictions
5410
total markets
Trades
6237B / 0S
Daily Volume
$1,528
Account Age
214d
since Nov 18, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$115
Vol: $0
Week
$8,206
Vol: $205,640
Month
$19,436
Vol: $573,062
All Time
$401,687
Vol: $14,513,165

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
55%
293W / 243L events
Realized PnL
$1,182,344
Win Rate
59%
157W / 107L
Profit Factor
0.75x
Avg Win
$179
Avg Loss
$-349

Top Winners

Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $355?$2,204
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 15 above $410?$1,669
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 15 above $405?$1,454
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 12?$1,379
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 12?$1,337
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 18?$1,052
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 18?$943
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $345?$688
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 12?$686
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 15 above $400?$655

Top Losers

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June?$-2,704
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 end of June?$-2,248
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in June?$-2,222
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of June?$-2,187
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June?$-1,983
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June?$-1,480
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 18?$-1,460
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $4.50?$-1,194
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June?$-1,057
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $80 in June?$-1,039

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.676
Sortino
13.185
HHI
114
Diversified
EV per $1
$20.595
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.3%
Top-5 markets
17.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
30.4
Active
Markets / Day
4.0
Active Hours
8/24
Normal
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
30s
between trades
Avg Gap
20.5m
between trades
Night Trading
0%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.25
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.5

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
LOW
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 30s — typical for humanSize CV 3.25 — diverse, typical for human0% at night — normal sleep pattern8/24 hours — normal hoursSession CV 1.04 — human randomness30 trades/day — suspiciously high889 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
7.7
Active DCA
<=1
231 entries
<=2
351 entries
<=5
519 entries
<=10
644 entries
<=20
747 entries
<=50
804 entries
>50
10 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)22%
Mid (20-55c)37.1%
High (>55c)40.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 38.2%

Other$-9,311

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.1
Events covered
388

Moderate coverage

<=1
237 brackets
<=2
297 brackets
<=3
333 brackets
<=4
351 brackets
<=5
362 brackets
<=8
375 brackets
>8
13 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/25/2025, 5:08:51 PM1 trades$260 min
11/26/2025, 2:47:07 PM1 trades$30 min
11/26/2025, 3:43:23 PM1 trades$1860 min
11/26/2025, 8:11:53 PM2 trades$40 min
12/1/2025, 2:51:58 PM1 trades$60 min
12/1/2025, 3:12:24 PM1 trades$790 min
12/2/2025, 2:31:56 PM1 trades$150 min
12/3/2025, 2:35:53 PM1 trades$190 min
12/3/2025, 3:15:43 PM1 trades$70 min
12/3/2025, 3:32:13 PM1 trades$150 min
12/3/2025, 4:55:11 PM3 trades$431 min
12/8/2025, 2:36:55 PM1 trades$110 min
12/10/2025, 3:05:16 PM1 trades$200 min
12/10/2025, 7:41:26 PM1 trades$50 min
12/10/2025, 8:00:04 PM2 trades$110 min
12/11/2025, 5:59:35 PM5 trades$6164 min
12/11/2025, 6:23:09 PM6 trades$8404 min
12/11/2025, 6:40:09 PM1 trades$850 min
12/11/2025, 7:39:59 PM1 trades$1200 min
12/11/2025, 8:27:37 PM1 trades$1000 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-20
01-23
02-20
03-20
04-25
05-28

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 7.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.1 br/event