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Naive-Refuse

@Naive-Refuse

#12,58384

0x11f595efb56332743b05b803cfe9d557c5605d82

263d· 9638 markets · 1361 tradesVol: $795,688 @TrillionsClubX2026-07-06T17:59
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

84
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 39%4/20
Profit Factor 156.30x15/15
Sharpe 0.76714/15
Sortino 4.60010/10
EV $+0.77510/10
HHI 2610/10
Profit Days 72%10/10
DD/Peak 6%10/10

Summary

Naive-Refuse is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 1,361 trades across 1,295 markets over 217 days. Ranked #12,583 globally by net PnL, they have generated $11,284.37 in profit on a total volume of nearly $796,000. Their smart score of 84 indicates very good trading acumen, supported by a 99.5% win rate and an exceptionally high profit factor of 156.3.

This trader primarily employs a low-risk, high-consistency strategy, reflected in their extremely high win rate and low sell percentage of just 3%. Naive-Refuse appears to prefer a broad range of markets, avoiding weather markets entirely, and maintains a flat equity trend indicating stable returns rather than aggressive growth. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.77 suggests moderate risk-adjusted returns, while the absence of any drawdown duration points to disciplined risk management. The semi-bot score implies a hybrid approach combining automated signals with manual oversight.

Naive-Refuse’s strengths lie in their remarkable consistency, disciplined trading style, and strong risk controls, which have earned them badges like Diamond Hands and Cool Head. However, their relatively flat portfolio value and low sell activity may signal limited upside potential or a conservative approach that could miss out on larger market moves. Overall, Naive-Refuse represents a steady and reliable presence on Polymarket, but traders seeking higher volatility might find this style less appealing.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+11,284
Diamond Hands
3% sell
Win Streak
564 wins in a row
Consistent
91/126 days
Cool Head
DD 6%

Categories

3
CRYPTO#4,222$11,157Vol: $783,278
SPORTS#112,259$111Vol: $12,182
🏛️ POLITICS#140,131$17Vol: $227

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$11,284
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$795,688
Total Redeem
$14,188
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
9638
total markets
Trades
1321B / 40S
Daily Volume
$71
Account Age
263d
since Oct 21, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$52
Vol: $322
Week
$52
Vol: $1,780
Month
$259
Vol: $6,979
All Time
$11,284
Vol: $795,688

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
39%
250W / 396L events
Realized PnL
$47,749
Win Rate
99%
721W / 4L
Profit Factor
156.3x
Avg Win
$9
Avg Loss
$-10

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $429 (6.9% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$243
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$103
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$83
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$77
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$74
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$71
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$67
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$60
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$56
Solana Up or Down - July 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET$46

Top Losers

Solana Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$-29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$-6
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$-5
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.767
Sortino
4.600
HHI
26
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.775
Kelly %
99.3%
Half-Kelly
49.6%
Top-1 market
2.3%
Top-5 markets
6.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
28.9
Active
Markets / Day
27.5
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
3:00 UTC
Median Gap
15.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
50.1m
between trades
Night Trading
43%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.49
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 926s — typical for humanSize CV 1.49 — diverse, typical for human43% at night — bot never sleeps20/24 hours — extended daySession CV 1.01 — human randomness29 trades/day — suspiciously high28 markets/day — mass coverage646 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 3:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1
Single entry
<=1
1271 entries
<=2
1293 entries
<=5
1295 entries
<=10
1295 entries
<=20
1295 entries
<=50
1295 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.1%
Mid (20-55c)66.4%
High (>55c)33.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 55.7%

Other$6,249

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
1295

Single bracket

<=1
1295 brackets
<=2
1295 brackets
<=3
1295 brackets
<=4
1295 brackets
<=5
1295 brackets
<=8
1295 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/20/2026, 6:28:14 AM1 trades$100 min
5/20/2026, 6:44:47 AM1 trades$220 min
5/20/2026, 7:14:26 AM1 trades$500 min
5/20/2026, 4:59:49 PM1 trades$60 min
5/20/2026, 5:16:16 PM1 trades$130 min
5/20/2026, 5:28:38 PM1 trades$280 min
5/21/2026, 12:12:42 AM1 trades$100 min
5/21/2026, 12:27:45 AM2 trades$320 min
5/21/2026, 12:44:12 AM2 trades$681 min
5/21/2026, 12:54:30 AM1 trades$460 min
5/21/2026, 1:08:04 AM4 trades$2176 min
5/21/2026, 1:43:41 AM1 trades$100 min
5/21/2026, 2:00:01 AM1 trades$100 min
5/21/2026, 2:13:38 AM1 trades$220 min
5/21/2026, 2:28:53 AM2 trades$560 min
5/21/2026, 3:14:53 AM1 trades$100 min
5/21/2026, 3:28:42 AM2 trades$320 min
5/21/2026, 3:44:47 AM1 trades$500 min
5/21/2026, 3:57:56 AM1 trades$100 min
5/21/2026, 4:14:46 AM1 trades$100 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-01
01-02
01-27
02-22
04-11
06-16

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
2.9% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event