Polydata
Naive-Refuse

@Naive-Refuse

#11,94332

0x11f595efb56332743b05b803cfe9d557c5605d82

216d· 8219 markets · 1983 tradesVol: $749,657 @TrillionsClubX2026-05-25T19:30
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

32
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.31x0/15
HHI 2510/10
Profit Days 38%2/10

Summary

Naive-Refuse is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, participating in nearly 2,000 trades across more than 1,400 markets over 176 days. With a net profit of $10,623.37, they hold a global PnL leaderboard rank of #11,943. Despite a substantial trading volume of $749,657, Naive-Refuse's overall Smart Score is 32 out of 100, indicating below-average performance metrics relative to other traders.

This trader shows a preference for a broad range of markets but avoids weather-related ones entirely. Naive-Refuse maintains a high win rate of 75.4% but operates with a low profit factor of 0.31 and a negative Sharpe ratio of -0.43, suggesting that while they win frequently, the profitability per trade is limited and risk-adjusted returns are weak. Their trading style appears to be low-risk per trade with minimal selling (5%), holding positions over time, as implied by the Diamond Hands badge and upward equity trend.

Naive-Refuse’s main strength lies in their consistent winning trades and steady equity growth, which reflects disciplined market engagement. However, the low profit factor and negative Sharpe ratio highlight potential inefficiencies in capitalizing on winning opportunities. The lack of drawdown duration and the fast interface bot score imply a human trader with quick execution but possibly suboptimal risk management. These factors suggest that while Naive-Refuse is stable, there may be room to improve profitability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+10,623
Diamond Hands
5% sell
Win Streak
317 wins in a row
Whale
$93,440

Categories

3
CRYPTO#4,283$10,495Vol: $737,873
SPORTS#102,485$111Vol: $11,556
🏛️ POLITICS#135,241$17Vol: $227

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$10,623
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$749,657
Total Redeem
$33,445
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
8219
total markets
Trades
1875B / 108S
Daily Volume
$532
Account Age
216d
since Oct 21, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$39
Vol: $206
Week
$39
Vol: $629
Month
$156
Vol: $50,421
All Time
$10,623
Vol: $749,657

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
250W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$47,633
Win Rate
75%
700W / 228L
Profit Factor
0.31x
Avg Win
$24
Avg Loss
$-234

Top Winners

Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET$407
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$387
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$325
XRP Up or Down - April 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET$320
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$316
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET$286
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$281
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET$228
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET$186
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET$170

Top Losers

XRP Up or Down - December 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET$-1,100
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$-788
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$-788
XRP Up or Down - January 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$-700
Solana Up or Down - January 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$-594
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$-591
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$-551
Solana Up or Down - December 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET$-500
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET$-493
Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$-493

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.430
Sortino
-0.540
HHI
25
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.475
Kelly %
41.8%
Half-Kelly
20.9%
Top-1 market
1.2%
Top-5 markets
4.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
11.3
Active
Markets / Day
8.3
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
11.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.2h
between trades
Night Trading
37%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.08
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.2

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 670s — typical for humanSize CV 1.08 — diverse, typical for human37% at night — bot never sleeps23/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.11 — human randomness11 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.3
Single entry
<=1
1211 entries
<=2
1353 entries
<=5
1447 entries
<=10
1453 entries
<=20
1454 entries
<=50
1454 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.3%
Mid (20-55c)37.9%
High (>55c)61.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 40.9%

Other$-36,796

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
1454

Single bracket

<=1
1454 brackets
<=2
1454 brackets
<=3
1454 brackets
<=4
1454 brackets
<=5
1454 brackets
<=8
1454 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/1/2025, 3:29:18 AM1 trades$2000 min
12/3/2025, 2:14:25 AM1 trades$1800 min
12/3/2025, 2:26:39 AM4 trades$4952 min
12/7/2025, 1:44:55 AM1 trades$2200 min
12/7/2025, 3:56:51 AM1 trades$6000 min
12/7/2025, 4:14:01 AM1 trades$2460 min
12/11/2025, 1:13:59 AM4 trades$7044 min
12/11/2025, 1:29:21 AM1 trades$3200 min
12/13/2025, 5:11:40 AM1 trades$2800 min
12/14/2025, 10:43:15 PM1 trades$1500 min
12/15/2025, 2:29:23 AM3 trades$3352 min
12/16/2025, 8:42:49 PM1 trades$1500 min
12/17/2025, 5:27:21 AM1 trades$1650 min
12/18/2025, 7:57:15 PM1 trades$1400 min
12/19/2025, 12:41:51 AM11 trades$1,1003 min
12/20/2025, 5:43:48 AM4 trades$2700 min
12/21/2025, 10:11:23 AM6 trades$2702 min
12/22/2025, 10:43:39 AM3 trades$3000 min
12/22/2025, 8:28:19 PM3 trades$3741 min
12/24/2025, 10:14:13 PM4 trades$3151 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-01
01-02
01-27
02-22
04-09
04-30
05-22
05-25

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
5.4% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event