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Negative-Currant

@Negative-Currant

#2,552,56310

0x9fb59ca60360d4a4663e5d8446c2617d736ad972

207d· 3638 markets · 1503 tradesVol: $27,977 @xw6aJWT6W3HFSTN2026-05-18T04:38
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

10
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 23%0/20
Profit Factor 0.32x0/15
HHI 1310/10
Profit Days 18%0/10

Summary

Negative-Currant is a relatively active trader on Polymarket, having executed 1,503 trades across 1,401 markets over 205 days. Despite this high activity level, their global rank is low at #2,552,563, reflecting a negative net PnL of $-575.62 and a modest portfolio value of $40.17. Their Smart Score of 10/100 indicates a beginner status, while the equity trend shows gradual growth.

This trader favors a high-volume, low-margin approach, demonstrated by an exceptionally high win rate of 99.5% but a very low sell percentage of 1%, suggesting a strong buy-and-hold or diamond hands strategy. The Profit Factor of 139.06 is unusually high given the negative net PnL, implying small wins with occasional large losses. Negative-Currant’s Sharpe Ratio of -0.85 and semi-bot trading style suggest a mixed manual and automated strategy with a risk profile that may not adequately compensate for volatility.

Negative-Currant’s key strength lies in their consistency and ability to maintain an upward equity trend despite losses, supported by badges like Diamond Hands and Win Streak. However, the low Smart Score and negative Sharpe Ratio indicate risks in risk management and strategy efficiency. Their minimal selling activity could expose them to prolonged drawdowns, and the negative net PnL highlights challenges in converting high win rates into sustained profitability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

2
Diamond Hands
1% sell
Win Streak
330 wins in a row

Categories

3
SPORTS#1,583,005$-575Vol: $27,939
CRYPTO#737,939$-0Vol: $36
🏛️ POLITICS#539,245$0Vol: $2

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-576
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$27,977
Total Redeem
$2,428
Portfolio
$40
Predictions
3638
total markets
Trades
1485B / 18S
Daily Volume
$25
Account Age
207d
since Oct 25, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$7
Vol: $52
Week
$7
Vol: $250
Month
$-34
Vol: $3,154
All Time
$-576
Vol: $27,977

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
24%
246W / 790L events
Realized PnL
$1,009
Win Rate
99%
545W / 3L
Profit Factor
139.06x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-1

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $32 (6.2% of PnL)

Top Winners

Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 219.5$12
Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 216.5$11
ZED FC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC: O/U 4.5$9
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5$8
CD Tolima vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: O/U 1.5$6
Tochigi SC vs. Vanraure Hachinohe FC: O/U 1.5$6
Club Santos Laguna vs. CF América: O/U 1.5$5
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-05-14?$5
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5$5
1. FC Slovácko vs. FC Baník Ostrava: O/U 1.5$5

Top Losers

Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 215.5$-3
Kings vs. Raptors$-1
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.845
Sortino
-0.935
HHI
13
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.671
Kelly %
99.2%
Half-Kelly
49.6%
Top-1 market
1.2%
Top-5 markets
4.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
7.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
6.9
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
2:00 UTC
Median Gap
27.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.5h
between trades
Night Trading
50%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.66
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.5

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1638s — typical for humanSize CV 0.66 — diverse, typical for human50% at night — bot never sleeps20/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.61 — semi-mechanical1103 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 2:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.1
Single entry
<=1
1325 entries
<=2
1394 entries
<=5
1401 entries
<=10
1401 entries
<=20
1401 entries
<=50
1401 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.6%
Mid (20-55c)19.5%
High (>55c)79.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 71.5%

Other$468
Wellington$7
Paris$5
Los Angeles$5
Seoul$4
Dallas$4
Madrid$3
Chengdu$3
Austin$3
Chongqing$3
Milan$3
Houston$2
Shanghai$2
Beijing$1
Seattle$0
Hong Kong$0
São Paulo$0
Kiel win$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
1236

Single bracket

<=1
1097 brackets
<=2
1214 brackets
<=3
1232 brackets
<=4
1236 brackets
<=5
1236 brackets
<=8
1236 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/25/2025, 3:07:05 PM1 trades$10 min
10/25/2025, 3:27:05 PM2 trades$24 min
10/25/2025, 3:37:15 PM2 trades$82 min
10/25/2025, 4:06:13 PM3 trades$34 min
10/26/2025, 12:30:49 PM2 trades$21 min
10/27/2025, 2:33:59 AM2 trades$22 min
10/27/2025, 9:01:33 AM1 trades$90 min
10/27/2025, 4:32:11 PM2 trades$63 min
10/27/2025, 11:12:03 PM2 trades$65 min
10/28/2025, 7:50:47 AM1 trades$30 min
10/28/2025, 8:09:13 AM2 trades$61 min
10/28/2025, 10:28:51 AM1 trades$30 min
10/28/2025, 1:30:19 PM1 trades$30 min
10/29/2025, 11:30:11 AM2 trades$60 min
10/29/2025, 11:50:51 AM4 trades$125 min
10/30/2025, 2:35:39 AM2 trades$62 min
10/30/2025, 7:23:45 AM1 trades$30 min
10/30/2025, 9:13:43 AM1 trades$30 min
10/30/2025, 11:24:07 AM2 trades$60 min
10/30/2025, 1:16:31 PM2 trades$62 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-25
11-29
01-01
02-01
03-06
04-16
05-17

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
1.2% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event