Polydata

@Neglected-Exposure

#2,524,67784

0xb1e10e737bc1cde371c040e14e7eb2766782f5a9

160d· 374 markets · 603 tradesVol: $39,3302026-05-21T06:59
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

84
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 73%20/20
Profit Factor 1.82x13/15
Sharpe 0.3036/15
Sortino 0.6707/10
EV $+0.69310/10
HHI 10710/10
Profit Days 71%10/10
DD/Peak 25%9/10

Summary

Neglected-Exposure is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having executed 603 trades across 317 markets over 212 days. Despite a negative net PnL of -$403.78, their Smart Score of 84/100 indicates strong trading skills, placing them at rank #2,524,677 globally. The trader has maintained a stable portfolio value around $488.18 with a modest Sharpe ratio of 0.30, reflecting limited volatility in returns.

This trader shows a preference for weather-related markets, which comprise 20% of their trades, and demonstrates a relatively conservative risk profile. With a high win rate of 85.5% and a profit factor of 31.26, Neglected-Exposure appears to focus on consistent small gains rather than large swings. Their sell percentage of 36% and zero-day max drawdown duration suggest disciplined exit timing and quick reaction to adverse market moves. Trading patterns imply a steady, patient style rather than aggressive speculation.

Key strengths for Neglected-Exposure include strong consistency, a cool-headed approach as indicated by their badges, and the ability to maintain stable equity despite negative overall returns. However, the negative net PnL and low Bot Score suggest potential challenges in capital growth and limited automation, possibly reflecting manual trading limitations. Continued monitoring is warranted to assess if their stable but unprofitable trend can shift positively.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Sniper
Win Rate 73%
Win Streak
32 wins in a row
Consistent
37/52 days
Cool Head
DD 25%

Categories

5
SPORTS#1,594,435$-640Vol: $24,269
🌤️ WEATHER#257,712$-207Vol: $7,697
CRYPTO#1,357,671$-116Vol: $3,676
🏛️ POLITICS#22,971$611Vol: $3,311
🎭 CULTURE#732,209$-52Vol: $377

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-404
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$39,330
Total Redeem
$347
Portfolio
$488
Predictions
374
total markets
Trades
387B / 216S
Daily Volume
$54
Account Age
160d
since Dec 12, 2025

Periods

#2
Week
$-134
Vol: $1,301
Month
$-651
Vol: $16,953
All Time
$-404
Vol: $39,330

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
76%
198W / 63L events
Realized PnL
$3,987
Win Rate
85%
182W / 31L
Profit Factor
31.26x
Avg Win
$21
Avg Loss
$-4

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $738 (19.9% of PnL)

Top Winners

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April $539
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies$107
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on April $91
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)$84
Pistons vs. Cavaliers$77
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)$62
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers$53
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026?$52
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)$52
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5$50

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$-23
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)$-15
Nagoya Grampus vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5$-8
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy end in a draw?$-5
Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5$-5
Spread: Clippers (-13.5)$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET$-5
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 7?$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$-5
Raptors vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5$-5

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.303
Sortino
0.670
HHI
107
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.693
Kelly %
77.5%
Half-Kelly
38.7%
Top-1 market
6.4%
Top-5 markets
16%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
3.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
2.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
15.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.5h
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.40
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 940s — typical for humanSize CV 1.40 — diverse, typical for human21% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.67 — semi-mechanical

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.2
Single entry
<=1
281 entries
<=2
305 entries
<=5
314 entries
<=10
317 entries
<=20
317 entries
<=50
317 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.8%
Mid (20-55c)38.5%
High (>55c)59.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 33.8%

Other$2,773
Paris$196
Toronto$111
Madrid$66
London$64
Milan$61
Munich$54
Gaza$52
Dallas$49
Seattle$44
Chicago$41
Miami$37
Atlanta$32
Kuala Lumpur$26
Hong Kong$19
Lucknow$14
Los Angeles$14
Tel Aviv$14

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
277

Single bracket

<=1
242 brackets
<=2
272 brackets
<=3
277 brackets
<=4
277 brackets
<=5
277 brackets
<=8
277 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/17/2025, 5:13:14 PM1 trades$200 min
2/1/2026, 1:53:08 PM1 trades$20 min
2/1/2026, 2:05:28 PM1 trades$20 min
2/1/2026, 5:01:52 PM2 trades$102 min
2/1/2026, 6:47:24 PM1 trades$50 min
2/1/2026, 7:17:06 PM1 trades$200 min
2/1/2026, 8:19:32 PM1 trades$50 min
2/1/2026, 9:32:58 PM3 trades$264 min
2/1/2026, 9:49:48 PM1 trades$50 min
2/2/2026, 7:23:14 AM1 trades$50 min
2/2/2026, 8:54:24 AM1 trades$610 min
2/2/2026, 10:05:42 AM1 trades$1550 min
3/29/2026, 1:53:02 PM1 trades$50 min
3/29/2026, 2:19:26 PM1 trades$50 min
3/29/2026, 2:45:06 PM1 trades$50 min
3/29/2026, 11:00:42 PM1 trades$50 min
3/29/2026, 11:54:16 PM1 trades$50 min
3/30/2026, 12:00:42 AM2 trades$103 min
3/30/2026, 12:13:54 AM1 trades$50 min
3/30/2026, 12:21:24 AM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-31
04-04
04-12
04-27
05-05
05-13
05-21
05-25

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
20.5% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
35.8% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event