Polydata
Data is 5 days old — refreshing in background...

@Negligible-Certification

#1,67830

0x3e73934b881659aa25a4f08bc8ab9067295bc4ec

257d· 3809 markets · 9841 tradesVol: $14,343,9772026-05-16T11:15
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 0.04x0/15
HHI 7710/10
Profit Days 23%0/10

Summary

Negligible-Certification is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #1678 globally by net PnL with earnings of $89,477.93 over 251 days. They have executed 9,841 trades across 479 markets, generating a total volume exceeding $14 million. Despite a below-average Smart Score of 30/100 and a negative Sharpe ratio of -0.72, their portfolio value shows an upward equity trend, although it remains modest at $1,371.53.

This trader favors a diverse range of markets with no exposure to weather-related events and maintains a relatively low sell percentage of 25%. Their win rate is 61.7%, indicating consistent profitability, but the low profit factor of 0.04 suggests that gains per winning trade may be marginal. Negligible-Certification appears to employ a measured, human-driven strategy with some emphasis on dollar-cost averaging, as reflected in their badges, and timing that avoids prolonged drawdowns.

Strengths for Negligible-Certification include a strong volume and consistent trade execution, supporting steady growth in equity. However, the negative Sharpe ratio and low profit factor point to potential risks in risk-adjusted returns and volatility. Traders following Negligible-Certification on Polymarket should be aware of these trade-offs between volume-driven growth and overall risk management.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Profitable
PnL $+89,478
DCA Master
avg 15.4 entries/market
Win Streak
213 wins in a row
Whale
$3,463,342
High Roller
$13,798/day

Categories

4
SPORTS#725$84,070Vol: $14,023,810
📈 ECONOMICS#4,546$403Vol: $251,275
🏛️ POLITICS#5,980$4,855Vol: $44,468
🎭 CULTURE#15,204$149Vol: $24,425

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$89,478
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$14,343,977
Total Redeem
$832,858
Portfolio
$1,372
Predictions
3809
total markets
Trades
7385B / 2456S
Daily Volume
$13,798
Account Age
257d
since Sep 5, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $805
Week
$2,203
Vol: $244,368
Month
$3,541
Vol: $613,715
All Time
$89,478
Vol: $14,343,977

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
247W / 2L events
Realized PnL
$284,790
Win Rate
62%
293W / 182L
Profit Factor
0.04x
Avg Win
$240
Avg Loss
$-8,927

Top Winners

Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-05-15?$11,210
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-01?$8,835
Will Finland win on 2025-11-14?$6,699
Olympique Lyonnais vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5$5,145
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliam$4,855
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26?$4,397
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-01-23?$3,437
SS Lazio vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5$3,300
VfL Bochum vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5$3,111
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 4.5$1,589

Top Losers

Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22?$-65,154
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02?$-55,287
FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5$-47,653
Austria vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5$-47,068
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28?$-42,669
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04?$-42,598
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5$-38,943
Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-03-22?$-38,094
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23?$-36,629
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score$-34,853

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.716
Sortino
-0.708
HHI
77
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.450
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
2.2%
Top-5 markets
9.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
40.3
Active
Markets / Day
2.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
30s
between trades
Avg Gap
14.2m
between trades
Night Trading
5%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.10
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.5

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 30s — typical for humanSize CV 5.10 — diverse, typical for human5% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.05 — human randomness40 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
15.4
Heavy DCA
<=1
79 entries
<=2
127 entries
<=5
217 entries
<=10
313 entries
<=20
390 entries
<=50
450 entries
>50
29 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)26.6%
Mid (20-55c)6.1%
High (>55c)67.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 65.3%

Miami$107
Shanghai$63
São Paulo$12
Chengdu$10
Atlanta$4
Dallas$1
Wuhan$0
New York City$-13,067
Munich$-21,748
Milan$-27,976
Paris$-31,200
Madrid$-143,360
Other$-1,317,218

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
412

Single bracket

<=1
360 brackets
<=2
398 brackets
<=3
411 brackets
<=4
412 brackets
<=5
412 brackets
<=8
412 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/14/2025, 10:14:06 AM1 trades$4430 min
9/14/2025, 11:54:18 AM3 trades$2,2752 min
9/14/2025, 12:05:54 PM6 trades$1,3015 min
9/14/2025, 12:26:38 PM3 trades$5,2498 min
9/14/2025, 12:42:38 PM1 trades$350 min
9/14/2025, 12:48:46 PM2 trades$1,3363 min
9/14/2025, 3:15:20 PM7 trades$10,9152 min
9/14/2025, 6:34:02 PM34 trades$3,62312 min
9/14/2025, 6:51:44 PM3 trades$3,0853 min
9/14/2025, 7:43:56 PM1 trades$100 min
9/14/2025, 7:50:16 PM1 trades$860 min
9/14/2025, 8:16:46 PM19 trades$8,43118 min
9/14/2025, 8:39:52 PM35 trades$7,73649 min
9/14/2025, 9:40:00 PM4 trades$2,3562 min
9/14/2025, 9:47:26 PM2 trades$780 min
9/14/2025, 9:58:24 PM1 trades$30 min
9/14/2025, 10:05:06 PM2 trades$1,1151 min
9/14/2025, 10:40:10 PM1 trades$800 min
9/15/2025, 11:35:42 AM3 trades$2,4023 min
9/15/2025, 11:47:00 AM8 trades$1,94214 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
09-14
10-26
12-01
01-06
02-13
03-21
05-12

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
25% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 15.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event