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@Negligible-Certification

#1,80930

0x3e73934b881659aa25a4f08bc8ab9067295bc4ec

309d· 4147 markets · 9797 tradesVol: $16,167,0932026-06-27T18:03
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.04x0/15
HHI 7210/10
Profit Days 25%0/10

Summary

Negligible-Certification is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranking #1809 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 294 days, they executed 9,797 trades across 524 markets, generating a net PnL of $95,873.86 from a total volume exceeding $16 million. Despite a below-average Smart Score of 30/100, their overall equity trend is upward, indicating consistent growth in profitability.

This trader demonstrates a preference for diverse markets, avoiding weather-related ones entirely, and maintains a relatively low sell percentage of 25%. Negligible-Certification exhibits a moderate risk profile, supported by a 63.8% win rate but a surprisingly low profit factor of 0.04 and a negative Sharpe ratio of -0.71. Their trading style suggests a human-operated approach with fast execution, leveraging strategies like dollar-cost averaging and sniper-like timing to capitalize on market opportunities.

Key strengths for Negligible-Certification include a solid win streak and consistent upward equity growth, which highlight effective market timing and position management. However, the negative Sharpe ratio and very low profit factor raise concerns about risk-adjusted returns and potential exposure to volatility. As a Polymarket trader, they show promise but may benefit from refining risk controls to improve long-term stability.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+95,874
DCA Master
avg 13.9 entries/market
Win Streak
115 wins in a row
Whale
$4,000,354
High Roller
$13,608/day

Categories

4
SPORTS#737$90,411Vol: $15,846,799
📈 ECONOMICS#4,850$403Vol: $251,275
🏛️ POLITICS#6,351$4,855Vol: $44,468
🎭 CULTURE#16,117$149Vol: $24,425

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$95,874
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$16,167,093
Total Redeem
$1,233,906
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
4147
total markets
Trades
7304B / 2493S
Daily Volume
$13,608
Account Age
309d
since Sep 5, 2025

Periods

#2
Week
$95
Vol: $9,546
Month
$6,072
Vol: $850,914
All Time
$95,874
Vol: $16,167,093

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
244W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$294,657
Win Rate
64%
331W / 188L
Profit Factor
0.04x
Avg Win
$224
Avg Loss
$-9,223

Top Winners

Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 0.5$12,225
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-01?$8,835
Will Finland win on 2025-11-14?$6,699
Olympique Lyonnais vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5$5,145
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliam$4,855
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 0.5$4,261
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-01-23?$3,437
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31?$2,020
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07?$1,900
CR Flamengo vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 1.5$1,809

Top Losers

Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22?$-65,154
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02?$-55,287
FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5$-47,653
Austria vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5$-47,068
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28?$-42,669
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04?$-42,598
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5$-38,943
Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-03-22?$-38,094
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23?$-36,629
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score$-34,853

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.710
Sortino
-0.697
HHI
72
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.415
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.9%
Top-5 markets
8.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
33.3
Active
Markets / Day
1.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
28s
between trades
Avg Gap
15.2m
between trades
Night Trading
4%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.11
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.8

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 28s — typical for humanSize CV 5.11 — diverse, typical for human4% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.07 — human randomness33 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
13.9
Heavy DCA
<=1
104 entries
<=2
171 entries
<=5
283 entries
<=10
364 entries
<=20
442 entries
<=50
495 entries
>50
29 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)26.8%
Mid (20-55c)7.8%
High (>55c)65.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 66%

Shenzhen$121
Shanghai$46
São Paulo$18
Wuhan$7
Chengdu$4
Singapore$3
Austin$0
Beijing$0
New York City$-13,067
Munich$-21,748
Milan$-23,816
Paris$-31,805
Madrid$-143,274
Other$-1,426,055

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
428

Single bracket

<=1
356 brackets
<=2
410 brackets
<=3
423 brackets
<=4
427 brackets
<=5
428 brackets
<=8
428 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/5/2025, 9:41:10 PM1 trades$8,2000 min
9/5/2025, 10:36:38 PM2 trades$85 min
9/5/2025, 10:54:58 PM1 trades$170 min
9/5/2025, 11:04:20 PM1 trades$00 min
9/5/2025, 11:10:38 PM2 trades$1814 min
9/5/2025, 11:28:58 PM8 trades$24514 min
9/5/2025, 11:51:58 PM9 trades$5487 min
9/6/2025, 12:17:20 AM22 trades$1,73717 min
9/6/2025, 12:40:40 AM23 trades$8,17216 min
9/6/2025, 1:08:10 AM12 trades$28423 min
9/6/2025, 1:36:04 AM5 trades$2032 min
9/6/2025, 2:33:52 AM1 trades$110 min
9/6/2025, 2:41:08 AM1 trades$10 min
9/6/2025, 2:53:16 AM5 trades$13510 min
9/6/2025, 7:34:48 PM3 trades$394 min
9/6/2025, 7:48:48 PM1 trades$790 min
9/6/2025, 7:56:34 PM1 trades$280 min
9/6/2025, 8:06:18 PM1 trades$20 min
9/6/2025, 8:34:30 PM1 trades$260 min
9/6/2025, 8:45:40 PM1 trades$230 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
09-07
10-25
12-03
01-15
03-01
05-18

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
25.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 13.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event