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@Noisy-Decrease

#2,485,79262

0x567e9ad403c7f683a7d46aa3bf96e3658e87770f

106d· 760 markets · 2483 tradesVol: $79,7532026-06-11T12:00
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

62
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 44%7/20
Profit Factor 0.83x0/15
Sharpe 1.12815/15
Sortino 13.51310/10
HHI 1810/10
Profit Days 97%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Noisy-Decrease is an active trader on Polymarket with 2,483 trades executed over 83 days. Despite a high trading volume of nearly $80,000 across 726 markets, their current net PnL stands at negative $180.70, placing them at rank #2,485,792 on the global leaderboard. Their Smart Score of 62 indicates good trading skills, while a Sharpe Ratio of 1.13 reflects moderate risk-adjusted returns. The trader’s portfolio value is currently zero, with a minimal sell percentage of 3%.

The trading style of Noisy-Decrease shows a strong preference for frequent market participation, maintaining a very high win rate of 99.2% and an exceptional profit factor of 468.68. Their approach appears to be low-risk and highly consistent, supported by badges like Diamond Hands and Cool Head, suggesting disciplined holding and measured decision-making. The trader does not engage in weather markets and tends to keep positions stable, as indicated by a flat equity trend and no drawdown duration.

Noisy-Decrease’s main strength lies in their consistency and risk management, demonstrated by a solid profit factor and low drawdowns. However, the negative net PnL and low portfolio value highlight potential concerns about overall profitability despite frequent wins. Their semi-automated trading style (bot score 55) suggests a blend of manual and automated tactics, which may affect responsiveness to market changes. These factors combined make Noisy-Decrease a cautious yet steady participant on Polymarket with room for improvement in generating positive returns.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Diamond Hands
3% sell
Win Streak
380 wins in a row
Consistent
73/75 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

6
CRYPTO#1,411,513$-137Vol: $75,292
🏛️ POLITICS#1,355,090$-23Vol: $3,499
SPORTS#935,015$-1Vol: $403
💰 FINANCE#95,030$2Vol: $171
🌤️ WEATHER#206,036$-3Vol: $114
📈 ECONOMICS#372,492$-0Vol: $13

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-181
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$79,753
Total Redeem
$37,524
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
760
total markets
Trades
2410B / 73S
Daily Volume
$447
Account Age
106d
since Mar 18, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-63
Vol: $157
Week
$-64
Vol: $1,613
Month
$-189
Vol: $4,899
All Time
$-181
Vol: $79,753

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
44%
250W / 322L events
Realized PnL
$14,872
Win Rate
99%
381W / 3L
Profit Factor
468.68x
Avg Win
$49
Avg Loss
$-13

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $473 (2.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$172
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$152
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET$150
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$149
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$148
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$143
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$137
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET$135
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$134
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$123

Top Losers

Will Trump visit China by May 31?$-35
Games Total: O/U 3.5$-5
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
1.128
Sortino
13.513
HHI
18
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.172
Kelly %
99.1%
Half-Kelly
49.6%
Top-1 market
0.8%
Top-5 markets
2.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
29.8
Active
Markets / Day
8.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.2h
between trades
Night Trading
26%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.29
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.8

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 72s — typical for humanSize CV 1.29 — diverse, typical for human26% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.20 — human randomness30 trades/day — suspiciously high572 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.3
Moderate DCA
<=1
379 entries
<=2
426 entries
<=5
570 entries
<=10
694 entries
<=20
724 entries
<=50
726 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.2%
Mid (20-55c)98.9%
High (>55c)0.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 48.6%

Other$18,772

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
725

Single bracket

<=1
724 brackets
<=2
725 brackets
<=3
725 brackets
<=4
725 brackets
<=5
725 brackets
<=8
725 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/20/2026, 5:40:13 AM2 trades$171 min
3/20/2026, 5:52:07 AM1 trades$30 min
3/20/2026, 6:11:03 AM1 trades$30 min
3/20/2026, 6:34:09 AM2 trades$21 min
3/20/2026, 6:50:23 AM5 trades$178 min
3/20/2026, 7:06:51 AM2 trades$72 min
3/20/2026, 7:25:15 AM1 trades$50 min
3/20/2026, 8:38:55 AM1 trades$20 min
3/20/2026, 9:25:19 AM3 trades$83 min
3/20/2026, 10:12:37 AM1 trades$30 min
3/20/2026, 12:36:23 PM1 trades$30 min
3/20/2026, 12:48:53 PM1 trades$30 min
3/20/2026, 3:04:21 PM2 trades$31 min
3/20/2026, 8:01:13 PM3 trades$120 min
3/20/2026, 8:25:05 PM3 trades$195 min
3/20/2026, 9:04:59 PM1 trades$80 min
3/20/2026, 10:43:03 PM1 trades$20 min
3/20/2026, 10:57:01 PM1 trades$10 min
3/21/2026, 1:51:17 AM2 trades$92 min
3/21/2026, 2:08:39 AM1 trades$40 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-21
04-02
04-14
04-26
05-13
05-28
06-09

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
2.9% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event