Polydata
Data is 3 days old — refreshing in background...

@Noisy-Decrease

#2,409,19715

0x567e9ad403c7f683a7d46aa3bf96e3658e87770f

109d· 905 markets · 2455 tradesVol: $85,7032026-07-02T11:50
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

15
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 39%5/20
Profit Factor 0.77x0/15
HHI 1510/10
Profit Days 20%0/10
DD/Peak 999%0/10

Summary

Noisy-Decrease is a relatively new and moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #2,409,197 globally with a net PnL of -$83.23 over 96 days. Despite a high total trading volume of $85,703 and 2,455 trades across 826 markets, their portfolio value currently stands at zero. The trader has a perfect win rate of 100%, though their profit factor is 0.00, indicating that wins may not be translating into profits. Their Sharpe ratio is negative at -0.35, reflecting suboptimal risk-adjusted returns.

The trading style of Noisy-Decrease suggests a high-frequency approach, engaging in many markets with consistent activity. The absence of sell transactions and a 0% presence in weather markets point to a focused strategy, possibly favoring buy-and-hold or binary outcome markets. The semi-automated nature of their strategy, with a bot score of 55/100, hints at a blend of algorithmic and manual decision-making. Their equity trend shows growth, but the lack of diversification in market types and the zero profit factor may indicate an overly conservative or risk-averse posture.

Key strengths for Noisy-Decrease include a disciplined pattern, as evidenced by their diamond hands and win streak badges, which suggest persistence and consistency. However, the negative Sharpe ratio and net losses highlight potential inefficiencies or poor trade sizing. Additionally, reliance on a semi-bot system could pose risks if market conditions shift rapidly. Overall, Noisy-Decrease demonstrates commitment but faces challenges in converting activity into profitability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

2
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
439 wins in a row

Categories

6
CRYPTO#1,315,633$-40Vol: $81,242
🏛️ POLITICS#1,367,975$-23Vol: $3,499
SPORTS#984,390$-1Vol: $403
💰 FINANCE#100,044$2Vol: $171
🌤️ WEATHER#211,097$-3Vol: $114
📈 ECONOMICS#377,089$-0Vol: $13

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-83
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$85,703
Total Redeem
$39,945
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
905
total markets
Trades
2455B / 0S
Daily Volume
$402
Account Age
109d
since Mar 18, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$14
Vol: $102
Week
$72
Vol: $1,005
Month
$4
Vol: $378
All Time
$-83
Vol: $85,703

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
39%
250W / 387L events
Realized PnL
$14,874
Win Rate
100%
439W / 0L
Profit Factor
0x
Avg Win
$46
Avg Loss
$0

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $483 (2.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$172
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$158
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$154
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET$150
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$149
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$143
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$137
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$137
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET$135
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$127

Top Losers

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.350
Sortino
-0.686
HHI
16
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.233
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
0.5%
Top-5 markets
2.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
25.7
Active
Markets / Day
8.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.4h
between trades
Night Trading
26%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.24
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.0

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 76s — typical for humanSize CV 1.24 — diverse, typical for human26% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.20 — human randomness26 trades/day — suspiciously high637 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3
Moderate DCA
<=1
479 entries
<=2
526 entries
<=5
672 entries
<=10
796 entries
<=20
825 entries
<=50
826 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0%
Mid (20-55c)100%
High (>55c)0%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 49.3%

Other$20,026

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
823

Single bracket

<=1
823 brackets
<=2
823 brackets
<=3
823 brackets
<=4
823 brackets
<=5
823 brackets
<=8
823 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/28/2026, 11:15:10 PM1 trades$230 min
3/29/2026, 11:40:08 AM1 trades$330 min
3/30/2026, 8:05:12 AM1 trades$320 min
3/30/2026, 8:10:32 AM4 trades$320 min
3/30/2026, 2:45:25 PM2 trades$565 min
3/30/2026, 5:25:11 PM5 trades$480 min
3/30/2026, 5:30:19 PM6 trades$480 min
3/30/2026, 7:30:23 PM3 trades$270 min
3/31/2026, 12:55:07 AM1 trades$320 min
3/31/2026, 1:25:41 AM6 trades$555 min
3/31/2026, 7:25:27 AM2 trades$310 min
3/31/2026, 8:40:09 AM2 trades$290 min
3/31/2026, 8:45:19 AM2 trades$290 min
3/31/2026, 9:01:31 AM1 trades$320 min
3/31/2026, 9:15:07 AM3 trades$340 min
3/31/2026, 9:30:37 AM7 trades$645 min
3/31/2026, 10:00:09 AM6 trades$855 min
3/31/2026, 1:55:09 PM1 trades$640 min
3/31/2026, 2:20:47 PM6 trades$845 min
3/31/2026, 5:15:09 PM3 trades$805 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-28
04-12
04-27
05-16
06-02
06-18

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event