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@Noisy-Decrease

#126,39770

0x567e9ad403c7f683a7d46aa3bf96e3658e87770f

64d· 570 markets · 2095 tradesVol: $63,4372026-05-17T10:24
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

70
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 52%11/20
Profit Factor 1.02x3/15
Sharpe 1.10015/15
Sortino 14.62610/10
EV $+0.0191/10
HHI 2410/10
Profit Days 96%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Noisy-Decrease is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 2,095 trades across 549 markets over 60 days. They hold a net profit of $312.28, ranking #126,397 globally on the PnL leaderboard. Despite a modest portfolio value of $19.93, their overall trading volume is substantial at $63,437, indicating frequent market engagement. Their smart score of 70/100 reflects good trading acumen.

This trader primarily employs a low-risk, high-frequency strategy characterized by a remarkable 98.7% win rate and an exceptionally high profit factor of 217.65. Noisy-Decrease shows a strong preference for maintaining positions rather than selling, with only 5% sell transactions. Their Sharpe ratio of 1.10 suggests steady risk-adjusted returns. The absence of weather market exposure and a zero-day max drawdown duration indicate disciplined timing and risk management.

Noisy-Decrease’s key strengths include consistent profitability, demonstrated by their upward equity trend and multiple badges highlighting cool-headedness and consistency. However, potential risks stem from a relatively low portfolio value and a semi-automated trading style, as indicated by a bot score of 45/100. Overall, their performance on Polymarket suggests a reliable, steady approach but with limited capital scale.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+312
Diamond Hands
5% sell
Win Streak
285 wins in a row
Consistent
54/56 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

6
CRYPTO#45,157$356Vol: $58,976
🏛️ POLITICS#1,317,473$-23Vol: $3,499
SPORTS#1,308,814$-20Vol: $664
💰 FINANCE#89,677$2Vol: $171
🌤️ WEATHER#195,741$-3Vol: $114
📈 ECONOMICS#365,821$-0Vol: $13

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$312
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$63,437
Total Redeem
$29,857
Portfolio
$20
Predictions
570
total markets
Trades
1989B / 106S
Daily Volume
$491
Account Age
64d
since Mar 18, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$280
Vol: $712
Week
$465
Vol: $712
Month
$108
Vol: $10,359
All Time
$312
Vol: $63,437

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
52%
250W / 227L events
Realized PnL
$14,013
Win Rate
99%
293W / 4L
Profit Factor
217.65x
Avg Win
$51
Avg Loss
$-17

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $473 (3.2% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$172
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$152
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET$150
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$149
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$148
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$143
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$137
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET$135
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$134
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$123

Top Losers

Will Trump visit China by May 31?$-35
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - ESL Challenger$-21
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?$-13
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
1.100
Sortino
14.627
HHI
24
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.019
Kelly %
98.5%
Half-Kelly
49.2%
Top-1 market
1%
Top-5 markets
3.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
34.9
Active
Markets / Day
9.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
58s
between trades
Avg Gap
1.1h
between trades
Night Trading
24%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.38
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.4

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 58s — typical for humanSize CV 1.38 — diverse, typical for human24% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.19 — human randomness35 trades/day — suspiciously high477 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.6
Moderate DCA
<=1
259 entries
<=2
302 entries
<=5
417 entries
<=10
517 entries
<=20
547 entries
<=50
549 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.5%
Mid (20-55c)96.9%
High (>55c)2.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 47%

Other$14,979

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
548

Single bracket

<=1
547 brackets
<=2
548 brackets
<=3
548 brackets
<=4
548 brackets
<=5
548 brackets
<=8
548 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/18/2026, 9:01:21 AM1 trades$30 min
3/18/2026, 7:36:45 PM1 trades$20 min
3/18/2026, 9:10:03 PM14 trades$3411 min
3/18/2026, 9:54:23 PM7 trades$347 min
3/19/2026, 2:54:13 AM7 trades$312 min
3/19/2026, 4:06:57 AM2 trades$30 min
3/19/2026, 4:49:31 AM2 trades$10 min
3/20/2026, 3:38:51 AM1 trades$50 min
3/20/2026, 3:45:49 AM1 trades$60 min
3/20/2026, 5:40:13 AM2 trades$171 min
3/20/2026, 5:52:07 AM1 trades$30 min
3/20/2026, 6:11:03 AM1 trades$30 min
3/20/2026, 6:34:09 AM2 trades$21 min
3/20/2026, 6:41:49 AM2 trades$51 min
3/20/2026, 6:50:23 AM5 trades$178 min
3/20/2026, 7:06:51 AM2 trades$72 min
3/20/2026, 7:23:49 AM5 trades$242 min
3/20/2026, 7:37:49 AM1 trades$50 min
3/20/2026, 7:52:35 AM1 trades$20 min
3/20/2026, 8:04:25 AM5 trades$136 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-18
03-27
04-05
04-14
04-23
05-02
05-16

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
5.1% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event