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@Novel-Cassava

#1,18683

0xf6415fa0aa9cb944c1c4afb9bc53ca82dd797b6f

712d· 6815 markets · 4531 tradesVol: $10,660,9282026-06-27T13:38
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

83
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 90%20/20
Profit Factor 1.23x5/15
Sharpe 0.78115/15
Sortino 1.69310/10
EV $+0.0663/10
HHI 5510/10
Profit Days 96%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Novel-Cassava is a seasoned trader on Polymarket, ranked #1186 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $154,305.53. Over 728 days, they have executed 4,531 trades across 397 markets, accumulating a total volume exceeding $10.6 million. Their consistent activity and a Smart Score of 83 indicate a very good overall performance, while a portfolio value of $210.76 suggests a focused capital deployment.

The trading style of Novel-Cassava leans towards a balanced risk profile, demonstrated by a 70.1% win rate and a profit factor of 1.23. They avoid weather markets entirely and maintain a notable sell percentage of 40%, implying active profit-taking and position management. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.78 points to moderate risk-adjusted returns, and the absence of prolonged drawdowns suggests disciplined timing. The badges earned, such as Sniper and DCA Master, reflect a strategy combining precision entry points with dollar-cost averaging.

Novel-Cassava’s strengths lie in their consistent profitability and disciplined execution, supported by a stable equity trend and a fast, likely human interface. However, their moderate profit factor and Sharpe ratio indicate some exposure to market volatility, and the relatively low portfolio size compared to volume traded may suggest cautious capital allocation. Overall, Novel-Cassava demonstrates effective trading on Polymarket with a focus on steady gains and risk control.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 90%
Profitable
PnL $+154,306
DCA Master
avg 6.9 entries/market
Win Streak
53 wins in a row
Whale
$646,896
Consistent
155/161 days
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

7
SPORTS#503$159,040Vol: $10,538,505
📢 MENTIONS#168,224$-1,255Vol: $53,723
CRYPTO#1,565,963$-1,301Vol: $44,931
💰 FINANCE#12,371$188Vol: $11,893
🎭 CULTURE#798,155$-1,638Vol: $5,704
🏛️ POLITICS#1,548,119$-283Vol: $3,090
📈 ECONOMICS#657,796$-394Vol: $2,000

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$154,306
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$10,660,928
Total Redeem
$81,194
Portfolio
$211
Predictions
6815
total markets
Trades
2740B / 1791S
Daily Volume
$889
Account Age
712d
since Jul 24, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$154
Vol: $6,983
Week
$5,013
Vol: $332,351
Month
$4,257
Vol: $713,009
All Time
$154,306
Vol: $10,660,928

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
91%
229W / 24L events
Realized PnL
$278,845
Win Rate
70%
223W / 95L
Profit Factor
1.23x
Avg Win
$971
Avg Loss
$-1,851

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $27,929 (68.8% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will France win on 2026-06-16?$10,106
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?$10,036
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?$7,787
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-01?$7,406
Braves vs. Reds$5,699
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-01-14?$5,136
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-01-24?$4,625
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?$4,370
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?$4,089
Blackhawks vs. Wild$3,985

Top Losers

New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays$-8,542
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-03-07?$-7,766
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-03-07?$-7,481
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-26?$-7,129
Will Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw?$-6,858
Orioles vs. Astros$-5,935
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26?$-5,765
Will Los Angeles FC vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?$-5,605
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-01-24?$-4,395
Will Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw?$-3,990

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.781
Sortino
1.693
HHI
55
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.066
Kelly %
27.2%
Half-Kelly
13.6%
Top-1 market
1.7%
Top-5 markets
6.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
12.2
Active
Markets / Day
1.1
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
10s
between trades
Avg Gap
36.7m
between trades
Night Trading
31%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.06
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.4

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 10s — suspiciously fastSize CV 2.06 — diverse, typical for human31% at night — bot never sleeps20/24 hours — extended daySession CV 1.36 — human randomness12 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
6.9
Active DCA
<=1
70 entries
<=2
112 entries
<=5
219 entries
<=10
321 entries
<=20
382 entries
<=50
396 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)6.3%
Mid (20-55c)25.7%
High (>55c)68%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 68.8%

Other$66,467
Seattle$3,609
Austin$1,077
Miami$594
Milan$568
San Francisco$0
Chicago$0
Toronto$0
Atlanta$0
New York City$-1,163
Houston$-1,960
Madrid$-2,691
Paris$-5,563
Los Angeles$-7,361
Dallas$-12,991

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
318

Single bracket

<=1
258 brackets
<=2
306 brackets
<=3
314 brackets
<=4
317 brackets
<=5
317 brackets
<=8
318 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
6/21/2025, 1:39:37 AM2 trades$1531 min
6/21/2025, 4:39:49 AM4 trades$1,5041 min
6/22/2025, 3:32:55 AM4 trades$861 min
6/22/2025, 3:54:07 AM3 trades$1,4020 min
6/22/2025, 4:00:57 AM8 trades$2,2054 min
6/22/2025, 4:13:49 AM4 trades$8631 min
6/22/2025, 6:57:37 PM5 trades$1,3090 min
6/22/2025, 7:19:39 PM2 trades$1,3060 min
6/22/2025, 7:44:09 PM1 trades$6400 min
6/22/2025, 8:41:17 PM1 trades$3,7510 min
6/24/2025, 11:26:05 PM8 trades$3,0085 min
6/25/2025, 12:11:29 AM1 trades$980 min
6/25/2025, 12:28:27 AM1 trades$2010 min
6/25/2025, 12:47:31 AM7 trades$2,5071 min
6/25/2025, 1:34:49 AM1 trades$1,2230 min
6/25/2025, 1:42:33 AM3 trades$1,5401 min
6/29/2025, 8:21:29 PM2 trades$3990 min
6/29/2025, 9:27:21 PM4 trades$822 min
6/29/2025, 9:54:09 PM8 trades$4592 min
6/29/2025, 10:18:29 PM1 trades$9010 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
05-31
09-12
01-02
03-04
04-26
06-26

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
39.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 6.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event