Polydata

@Novel-Cassava

#94698

0xf6415fa0aa9cb944c1c4afb9bc53ca82dd797b6f

662d· 6292 markets · 3621 tradesVol: $9,472,7932026-05-16T08:12
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

98
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 94%20/20
Profit Factor 48.29x15/15
Sharpe 0.77415/15
Sortino 0.8058/10
EV $+13.02310/10
HHI 6610/10
Profit Days 99%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Novel-Cassava is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #946 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $163,228.41. Over 728 days, they have executed 3,621 trades across 375 markets, accumulating a total volume of over $9.4 million. Their smart score of 98/100 places them in the elite category, reflecting consistent performance and strong trading acumen. Despite a large volume, Novel-Cassava’s portfolio value remains steady at around $19,000, indicating a focus on disciplined capital management.

The trader’s strategy appears balanced with a moderate risk profile, evidenced by a 71.7% win rate but a profit factor slightly below 1 (0.95). They demonstrate a preference for diverse markets rather than weather-related ones and employ a mix of buying and selling, with 39% of trades being sells. Novel-Cassava’s timing seems precise, as suggested by the "Sniper" and "DCA Master" badges, implying selective entries and averaging down positions to optimize outcomes. The flat equity trend and zero max drawdown duration indicate stable performance without significant prolonged losses.

Key strengths of Novel-Cassava include their elite smart score, high win rate, and ability to maintain consistent profits over an extended period. However, the profit factor below 1 and a Sharpe ratio of 0.77 suggest some inefficiency in risk-adjusted returns. Additionally, their relatively low bot score indicates mostly manual trading, which could limit scalability. Overall, Novel-Cassava demonstrates disciplined, steady trading on Polymarket but may face challenges improving risk efficiency.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 94%
Profitable
PnL $+163,228
DCA Master
avg 5.9 entries/market
Win Streak
57 wins in a row
Whale
$500,806
Consistent
157/159 days
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

7
SPORTS#412$167,963Vol: $9,350,369
📢 MENTIONS#162,337$-1,255Vol: $53,723
CRYPTO#1,468,497$-1,301Vol: $44,931
💰 FINANCE#11,316$188Vol: $11,893
🎭 CULTURE#769,292$-1,638Vol: $5,704
🏛️ POLITICS#1,484,604$-283Vol: $3,090
📈 ECONOMICS#631,553$-394Vol: $2,000

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$163,228
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$9,472,793
Total Redeem
$54,886
Portfolio
$19,018
Predictions
6292
total markets
Trades
2200B / 1421S
Daily Volume
$688
Account Age
662d
since Jul 24, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-2
Vol: $0
Week
$3,279
Vol: $310,926
Month
$12,616
Vol: $792,292
All Time
$163,228
Vol: $9,472,793

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
96%
252W / 11L events
Realized PnL
$266,806
Win Rate
72%
200W / 79L
Profit Factor
0.95x
Avg Win
$689
Avg Loss
$-1,838

Top Winners

Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-01?$7,406
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-01-14?$5,136
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03?$4,684
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-01-24?$4,625
Blackhawks vs. Wild$3,985
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2025-12-14?$3,708
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-24?$3,651
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10?$3,623
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals$3,609
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-17?$2,853

Top Losers

New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays$-8,542
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-03-07?$-7,766
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-03-07?$-7,481
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-26?$-7,129
Will Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw?$-6,858
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26?$-5,765
Will Los Angeles FC vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?$-5,605
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-01-24?$-4,395
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-26?$-3,728
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?$-3,277

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.774
Sortino
0.805
HHI
66
Diversified
EV per $1
$13.023
Kelly %
25.6%
Half-Kelly
12.8%
Top-1 market
2.2%
Top-5 markets
8.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
14.9
Active
Markets / Day
1.5
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
10s
between trades
Avg Gap
35.5m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.84
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.4

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 10s — suspiciously fastSize CV 1.84 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?19/24 hours — extended daySession CV 1.49 — human randomness15 trades/day — very active324 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
5.9
Active DCA
<=1
101 entries
<=2
141 entries
<=5
235 entries
<=10
314 entries
<=20
364 entries
<=50
374 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)4.7%
Mid (20-55c)18.2%
High (>55c)77.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 66%

Other$15,092
Seattle$3,609
Austin$1,044
Miami$1,031
Milan$961
Toronto$507
Atlanta$202
Chicago$98
Paris$-541
New York City$-1,163
Houston$-2,060
Madrid$-5,701
Los Angeles$-7,368
Dallas$-13,087

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
282

Single bracket

<=1
209 brackets
<=2
264 brackets
<=3
280 brackets
<=4
282 brackets
<=5
282 brackets
<=8
282 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/14/2025, 5:09:58 PM3 trades$2441 min
9/14/2025, 6:03:34 PM4 trades$1,0240 min
9/14/2025, 7:08:02 PM1 trades$4720 min
9/14/2025, 7:14:20 PM10 trades$2432 min
9/14/2025, 7:39:40 PM3 trades$5790 min
9/14/2025, 7:50:22 PM7 trades$2,9497 min
9/14/2025, 8:10:06 PM1 trades$5240 min
9/15/2025, 11:08:02 PM1 trades$5520 min
9/15/2025, 11:48:40 PM5 trades$1,3011 min
9/16/2025, 1:57:06 AM6 trades$1,7563 min
9/16/2025, 2:43:58 AM2 trades$1,1350 min
9/16/2025, 3:20:42 AM2 trades$1,1230 min
9/16/2025, 4:15:26 AM1 trades$480 min
9/16/2025, 4:25:26 AM1 trades$2,6800 min
9/23/2025, 6:21:46 PM1 trades$60 min
9/23/2025, 6:40:47 PM1 trades$150 min
9/23/2025, 6:55:31 PM1 trades$5860 min
9/25/2025, 2:41:04 AM2 trades$1621 min
9/25/2025, 3:45:54 AM2 trades$7455 min
9/25/2025, 4:53:42 AM1 trades$2100 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
05-25
08-30
11-30
02-21
04-11
05-17

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
39.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 5.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event