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@Obvious-Contest

#3,84269

0xdc88aa18314c5034e5831f00de8fce1c5acd7ef5

220d· 460 markets · 7435 tradesVol: $3,362,9542026-05-16T07:05
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

69
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 96%20/20
Profit Factor 0.04x0/15
Sharpe 0.4939/15
Sortino 1003520.41610/10
HHI 6910/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Obvious-Contest is an active Polymarket trader ranked #3842 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 390 days, they have executed 7,435 trades across 281 markets, generating a net PnL of $35,871.78 from a total volume exceeding $3.3 million. Their Smart Score of 69/100 reflects solid trading acumen, while their portfolio currently holds no open positions, indicating a closed or fully realized approach.

This trader exhibits a mixed strategy with a relatively low win rate of 40.2% and a profit factor of 0.04, suggesting that occasional large wins compensate for frequent smaller losses. Obvious-Contest appears to maintain a low-risk profile, highlighted by minimal selling activity (3%) and no exposure to weather markets. The semi-automated trading style, as indicated by a bot score of 50/100, combines manual input with algorithmic support. Their timing seems disciplined, avoiding prolonged drawdowns and maintaining an upward equity trend.

Obvious-Contest’s strengths lie in their persistence and ability to sustain profitable streaks, supported by badges like Sniper and Diamond Hands. However, the low profit factor and moderate Sharpe ratio (0.49) signal potential volatility in returns. The absence of open positions may limit immediate opportunities, but their growing equity trend and steady activity suggest continued relevance within Polymarket’s ecosystem.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 96%
Profitable
PnL $+35,872
Diamond Hands
3% sell
Win Streak
69 wins in a row
Whale
$2,574,457
Consistent
56/56 days
High Roller
$6,601/day

Categories

4
CRYPTO#894$38,756Vol: $3,323,813
SPORTS#108,745$96Vol: $27,129
🎭 CULTURE#771,022$-3,092Vol: $6,852
💰 FINANCE#15,099$112Vol: $5,160

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$35,872
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$3,362,954
Total Redeem
$968,794
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
460
total markets
Trades
7216B / 219S
Daily Volume
$6,601
Account Age
220d
since Oct 13, 2025

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
96%
247W / 11L events
Realized PnL
$77,156
Win Rate
40%
109W / 162L
Profit Factor
0.04x
Avg Win
$529
Avg Loss
$-9,575

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7AM ET$11,442
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8AM ET$6,513
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9PM ET$3,375
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2AM ET$2,859
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5AM ET$2,637
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3AM ET$2,202
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9AM ET$1,804
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 8PM ET$1,798
Solana Up or Down - March 2, 10PM ET$1,751
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1AM ET$1,608

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9AM ET$-39,587
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6PM ET$-34,826
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11PM ET$-34,465
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12AM ET$-33,785
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11PM ET$-32,227
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10AM ET$-27,216
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8AM ET$-26,885
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11AM ET$-26,130
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10PM ET$-25,428
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7PM ET$-25,320

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.493
Sortino
inf
HHI
69
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.585
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.9%
Top-5 markets
7.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
63.9
Very active
Markets / Day
2.4
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
10s
between trades
Avg Gap
12.5m
between trades
Night Trading
38%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.47
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.6

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 10s — suspiciously fastSize CV 3.47 — diverse, typical for human38% at night — bot never sleeps21/24 hours — extended daySession CV 1.36 — human randomness64 trades/day — mass trading

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
25.7
Heavy DCA
<=1
38 entries
<=2
54 entries
<=5
94 entries
<=10
129 entries
<=20
170 entries
<=50
229 entries
>50
52 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.1%
Mid (20-55c)1.5%
High (>55c)98.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 45%

Other$-1,493,601

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
279

Single bracket

<=1
277 brackets
<=2
279 brackets
<=3
279 brackets
<=4
279 brackets
<=5
279 brackets
<=8
279 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/18/2025, 1:18:49 AM1 trades$6800 min
11/24/2025, 1:10:07 AM1 trades$4,3430 min
11/25/2025, 3:21:39 AM4 trades$5,7383 min
12/11/2025, 12:31:25 PM5 trades$3,3153 min
12/12/2025, 6:17:52 AM4 trades$1640 min
12/12/2025, 8:52:36 AM1 trades$700 min
12/16/2025, 2:45:41 PM2 trades$3793 min
12/16/2025, 4:24:01 PM1 trades$360 min
12/16/2025, 5:02:23 PM2 trades$852 min
12/17/2025, 2:59:29 AM1 trades$8020 min
12/19/2025, 2:08:47 AM1 trades$4820 min
12/19/2025, 6:27:03 AM1 trades$3700 min
12/19/2025, 10:43:28 AM1 trades$1,5520 min
12/21/2025, 12:10:41 PM1 trades$21,2850 min
12/23/2025, 1:09:59 AM6 trades$21,3065 min
12/23/2025, 9:51:03 AM1 trades$10,6640 min
12/24/2025, 1:09:13 AM2 trades$10,6741 min
12/24/2025, 4:53:53 AM2 trades$4,9981 min
12/27/2025, 3:43:35 AM1 trades$490 min
1/1/2026, 1:21:15 PM1 trades$8,6970 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-07
01-09
02-05
02-15
02-25
03-06
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
2.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 25.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event