Polydata
Data is 16 days old — refreshing in background...

@Obvious-Harmonica

#64,64830

0x295bd19a815180f42a04964929b9a77c328adc60

96d· 7664 markets · 22504 tradesVol: $3,997,3122026-06-26T13:13
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.04x0/15
HHI 4210/10
Profit Days 21%0/10

Summary

Obvious-Harmonica is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 22,504 trades across 522 markets over 76 days. They hold a global rank of #64,648 on the PnL leaderboard, with a net profit of $1,358.31 and a total trading volume near $4 million. Despite a sizable volume, their Smart Score is below average at 30/100, and their current portfolio value stands at zero.

This trader appears to adopt a high-frequency approach, engaging in many trades but maintaining a low win rate of 35.8% and a profit factor of just 0.04, indicating frequent small losses relative to gains. Their Sharpe Ratio of -0.59 suggests negative risk-adjusted returns, and they do not participate in weather markets. The zero sell percentage implies a buy-and-hold style or minimal position liquidation. Obvious-Harmonica’s strategy blends bot automation with manual input, reflected in their semi-bot score of 60/100.

Obvious-Harmonica’s strengths include a consistent upward equity trend and badges like "Sniper" and "Diamond Hands," signaling discipline and persistence. However, the low win rate and negative Sharpe Ratio raise concerns about overall efficiency and risk management. Their current zero portfolio value also suggests they may be fully invested or not holding open positions, which could affect liquidity and flexibility in volatile markets.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+1,358
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
34 wins in a row
Whale
$441,222
High Roller
$5,808/day

Categories

1
CRYPTO#24,954$1,358Vol: $3,997,312

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,358
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$3,997,312
Total Redeem
$35,665
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
7664
total markets
Trades
22504B / 0S
Daily Volume
$5,808
Account Age
96d
since Apr 7, 2026

Periods

#2
Week
$-349
Vol: $19,478
Month
$-366
Vol: $19,763
All Time
$1,358
Vol: $3,997,312

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
250W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$207,905
Win Rate
36%
167W / 300L
Profit Factor
0.04x
Avg Win
$91
Avg Loss
$-1,396

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$842
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$698
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$554
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$521
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$514
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$505
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$504
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$504
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$502
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$396

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$-3,228
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$-3,166
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$-3,090
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$-2,982
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$-2,966
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$-2,949
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$-2,922
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$-2,904
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$-2,835
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$-2,825

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.589
Sortino
-0.559
HHI
42
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.919
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
0.7%
Top-5 markets
3.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
296.2
Very active
Markets / Day
6.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
6s
between trades
Avg Gap
1.8m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.21
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
7 min
Avg Trades / Session
155.0

Bot Detection

#6
60
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
60% < 10s — regular intervalSize CV 1.21 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.30 — human randomness296 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
43.1
Heavy DCA
<=1
37 entries
<=2
84 entries
<=5
136 entries
<=10
193 entries
<=20
249 entries
<=50
328 entries
>50
194 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)10.5%
Mid (20-55c)42.2%
High (>55c)47.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 43.2%

Other$-403,498

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
522

Single bracket

<=1
522 brackets
<=2
522 brackets
<=3
522 brackets
<=4
522 brackets
<=5
522 brackets
<=8
522 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/7/2026, 7:55:07 PM68 trades$1,0945 min
4/7/2026, 8:30:29 PM52 trades$1,4264 min
4/7/2026, 9:15:11 PM123 trades$1,9903 min
4/7/2026, 9:45:09 PM85 trades$2,0944 min
4/7/2026, 10:10:07 PM121 trades$2,2504 min
4/7/2026, 10:35:09 PM124 trades$2,2892 min
4/7/2026, 11:00:11 PM404 trades$6,27615 min
4/7/2026, 11:40:07 PM155 trades$2,1385 min
4/7/2026, 11:50:23 PM442 trades$6,95824 min
4/8/2026, 2:05:09 AM139 trades$3,07110 min
4/8/2026, 11:45:17 AM57 trades$1,2154 min
4/8/2026, 12:40:17 PM47 trades$1,0365 min
4/8/2026, 1:10:07 PM208 trades$3,78110 min
4/8/2026, 1:35:09 PM214 trades$4,3159 min
4/8/2026, 1:50:21 PM83 trades$1,9482 min
4/8/2026, 2:00:07 PM57 trades$2,3259 min
4/8/2026, 2:35:19 PM357 trades$5,66715 min
4/8/2026, 2:55:13 PM380 trades$7,34218 min
4/8/2026, 3:20:17 PM647 trades$13,22728 min
4/8/2026, 4:05:27 PM406 trades$10,86724 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-07
04-10
04-13
04-16
05-08
05-28
06-22

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 43.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event