Polydata
Oily-Tummy

@Oily-Tummy

#138,36892

0xf2a9fe128b0420c83facc86abfad6a3fc63efdb6

109d· 558 markets · 1116 tradesVol: $73,988 @cRyPaulinjo2026-05-28T03:14
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

92
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 21.22x15/15
Sharpe 1.14315/15
Sortino 18537.77410/10
EV $+0.0322/10
HHI 7610/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Oily-Tummy is an active trader on Polymarket with a strong track record, ranking #138,368 globally by net PnL. Over 161 days, they have executed 1,116 trades across 499 markets, generating a net profit of $265.74 on a total volume of nearly $74,000. Their smart score of 92/100 places them in the elite category, reflecting consistent and profitable trading behavior.

This trader exhibits a preference for high-frequency trading with a sniper-like precision, as indicated by a 98.4% win rate and a profit factor exceeding 21. Oily-Tummy typically holds positions for short durations and rarely sells (only 2% sell rate), suggesting a low-risk, confidence-driven approach. Their Sharpe ratio of 1.14 points to moderate risk-adjusted returns, while the zero-day max drawdown duration implies effective risk management and minimal exposure to sustained losses.

Oily-Tummy’s strengths lie in their consistency, high accuracy, and disciplined trading style, as evidenced by badges like Diamond Hands and Win Streak. However, their very small current portfolio value of $14.78 and relatively low bot score suggest manual trading with limited capital deployment. This could restrict scalability and may expose them to liquidity risks in larger markets. Overall, Oily-Tummy is a skilled and steady trader within Polymarket’s ecosystem.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Profitable
PnL $+266
Diamond Hands
2% sell
Win Streak
176 wins in a row
Consistent
64/64 days

Categories

6
CRYPTO#42,669$419Vol: $62,308
🎭 CULTURE#750,996$-91Vol: $4,744
🏛️ POLITICS#1,324,376$-21Vol: $2,982
📈 ECONOMICS#488,740$-2Vol: $2,897
💰 FINANCE#550,566$-14Vol: $660
SPORTS#1,352,265$-24Vol: $397

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$266
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$73,988
Total Redeem
$37,710
Portfolio
$15
Predictions
558
total markets
Trades
1099B / 17S
Daily Volume
$232
Account Age
109d
since Feb 7, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$101
Vol: $7,239
Month
$226
Vol: $28,379
All Time
$266
Vol: $73,988

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
251W / 3L events
Realized PnL
$1,164
Win Rate
98%
443W / 7L
Profit Factor
21.22x
Avg Win
$3
Avg Loss
$-8

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $71 (6% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$28
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$22
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$20
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$19
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$19
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? $19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$18
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$16
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$13

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$-15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$-14
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$-12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$-10
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$-4
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$-2

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
1.143
Sortino
inf
HHI
76
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.032
Kelly %
90.8%
Half-Kelly
45.4%
Top-1 market
3.2%
Top-5 markets
11.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
10.2
Active
Markets / Day
4.6
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
42s
between trades
Avg Gap
60.0m
between trades
Night Trading
9%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.20
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 42s — typical for humanSize CV 2.20 — diverse, typical for human9% at night — normal sleep pattern22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.36 — human randomness10 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.2
Moderate DCA
<=1
190 entries
<=2
315 entries
<=5
494 entries
<=10
499 entries
<=20
499 entries
<=50
499 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.5%
Mid (20-55c)2.4%
High (>55c)96.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 52.6%

Other$1,183
Madrid$4

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
498

Single bracket

<=1
497 brackets
<=2
498 brackets
<=3
498 brackets
<=4
498 brackets
<=5
498 brackets
<=8
498 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/7/2026, 12:10:35 PM1 trades$30 min
2/8/2026, 11:04:33 AM1 trades$10 min
2/8/2026, 11:18:53 AM2 trades$31 min
2/8/2026, 11:25:05 AM1 trades$30 min
2/8/2026, 1:13:53 PM1 trades$10 min
2/8/2026, 9:43:55 PM1 trades$560 min
2/9/2026, 2:39:11 PM2 trades$302 min
2/10/2026, 5:26:47 AM1 trades$200 min
2/10/2026, 2:57:45 PM1 trades$40 min
2/10/2026, 8:55:55 PM2 trades$101 min
2/10/2026, 9:54:57 PM1 trades$10 min
2/11/2026, 8:29:43 AM1 trades$50 min
2/11/2026, 11:42:11 AM1 trades$40 min
2/14/2026, 12:24:57 PM2 trades$695 min
2/14/2026, 4:59:43 PM1 trades$30 min
2/15/2026, 1:47:25 PM1 trades$20 min
2/15/2026, 1:54:41 PM1 trades$20 min
2/15/2026, 2:48:47 PM1 trades$20 min
2/15/2026, 8:24:39 PM1 trades$10 min
2/16/2026, 7:34:27 PM1 trades$20 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-08
02-22
03-04
03-19
04-02
05-01
05-25

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
1.5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event