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@Optimal-Swath

#25,56486

0x0c65840880163c0fd8b4bb4696077be3b4dad60d

562d· 372 markets · 1211 tradesVol: $617,9872026-05-14T03:26
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

86
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 87%20/20
Profit Factor 3.41x15/15
Sharpe 0.3577/15
Sortino 0.4504/10
EV $+0.23910/10
HHI 21710/10
Profit Days 87%10/10
DD/Peak 9%10/10

Summary

Optimal-Swath is an experienced and active trader on Polymarket, ranked #25564 on the global PnL leaderboard. With over 1,200 trades executed across 324 markets, they have generated a net profit of $4,101.78 from a total trading volume exceeding $600,000. Their portfolio value stands at nearly $100,000, and they have maintained consistent activity over 984 days, earning an elite Smart Score of 86 out of 100.

The trading strategy employed by Optimal-Swath appears focused on high win rate and consistent profits, as reflected in their 93.3% win rate and a remarkable profit factor of 147.46. They tend to hold positions briefly, indicated by a max drawdown duration of zero days and a relatively low sell percentage of 12%, suggesting a preference for quick, decisive trades. Their approach is likely low to moderate risk, emphasizing precision and timing over long-term speculation.

Optimal-Swath’s key strengths include their exceptional consistency and ability to maintain profitability with minimal drawdown, supported by badges like Sniper and Win Streak. However, their Sharpe ratio of 0.36 signals modest risk-adjusted returns, which might indicate limited upside during volatile market conditions. Additionally, the low Bot Score suggests they trade manually, which could affect scalability. Overall, Optimal-Swath demonstrates disciplined, steady performance on Polymarket with some constraints on growth potential.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 87%
Profitable
PnL $+4,102
Win Streak
50 wins in a row
Whale
$355,664
Consistent
77/89 days
Cool Head
DD 9%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#1,513,396$-991Vol: $387,889
🎭 CULTURE#767,434$-4,333Vol: $54,643
📈 ECONOMICS#1,822$1,682Vol: $54,461
CRYPTO#9,624$4,517Vol: $46,832
SPORTS#12,656$2,965Vol: $33,574
💰 FINANCE#15,566$105Vol: $23,026
💻 TECH#2,484$347Vol: $11,286
📢 MENTIONS#22,012$6Vol: $3,520
🌤️ WEATHER#251,974$-240Vol: $2,285

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$4,102
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$617,987
Total Redeem
$235,032
Portfolio
$99,641
Predictions
372
total markets
Trades
1060B / 151S
Daily Volume
$361
Account Age
562d
since Nov 2, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-80
Vol: $0
Week
$102
Vol: $200
Month
$911
Vol: $69,965
All Time
$4,102
Vol: $617,987

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
85%
186W / 33L events
Realized PnL
$25,300
Win Rate
93%
224W / 16L
Profit Factor
147.46x
Avg Win
$142
Avg Loss
$-14

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $12,735 (40.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$7,039
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$3,818
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?$1,878
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)$1,144
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$991
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$864
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?$861
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?$794
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meetin$645
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$634

Top Losers

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less th$-78
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$-54
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?$-33
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner$-16
Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026?$-16
Epstein client list released in 2025?$-4
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$-4
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?$-3
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals$-2
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.357
Sortino
0.450
HHI
217
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.239
Kelly %
91.6%
Half-Kelly
45.8%
Top-1 market
6.9%
Top-5 markets
25.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
8.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.2h
between trades
Night Trading
8%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.02
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 480s — typical for humanSize CV 2.02 — diverse, typical for human8% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.99 — human randomness306 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.3
Moderate DCA
<=1
177 entries
<=2
221 entries
<=5
281 entries
<=10
306 entries
<=20
317 entries
<=50
324 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)2.8%
Mid (20-55c)8.3%
High (>55c)88.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 22.1%

Other$31,468
New York City$94
Paris$49
Netanyahu$18
Warsh$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
230

Single bracket

<=1
170 brackets
<=2
211 brackets
<=3
222 brackets
<=4
226 brackets
<=5
228 brackets
<=8
230 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/2/2024, 3:32:04 PM1 trades$990 min
11/6/2024, 7:39:38 PM1 trades$500 min
11/6/2024, 8:20:26 PM1 trades$500 min
11/7/2024, 7:40:09 PM1 trades$100 min
2/16/2025, 12:33:45 PM1 trades$1000 min
7/28/2025, 1:21:12 PM1 trades$2070 min
9/4/2025, 12:15:06 PM1 trades$1000 min
9/12/2025, 10:36:29 AM1 trades$400 min
9/16/2025, 10:37:26 AM1 trades$4,2840 min
9/18/2025, 8:36:52 AM1 trades$5000 min
10/15/2025, 8:21:37 AM1 trades$500 min
10/15/2025, 9:32:31 AM2 trades$1004 min
10/15/2025, 9:45:19 AM1 trades$500 min
10/18/2025, 3:36:20 PM1 trades$500 min
10/28/2025, 8:03:37 AM1 trades$2480 min
10/28/2025, 8:10:41 AM1 trades$2,0000 min
10/29/2025, 4:15:09 PM1 trades$1,5000 min
10/29/2025, 5:12:01 PM1 trades$2,0000 min
10/30/2025, 9:09:13 PM2 trades$2,0001 min
10/30/2025, 10:20:41 PM1 trades$5000 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
11-08
12-18
01-07
02-28
04-11
05-19
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
12.5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event