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@Optimal-Swath

#20,84685

0x0c65840880163c0fd8b4bb4696077be3b4dad60d

609d· 422 markets · 1912 tradesVol: $769,4232026-06-30T02:23
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

85
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 89%20/20
Profit Factor 3.22x15/15
Sharpe 0.3166/15
Sortino 0.3704/10
EV $+0.21510/10
HHI 18010/10
Profit Days 89%10/10
DD/Peak 8%10/10

Summary

Optimal-Swath is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with a solid track record. Ranked #20,846 globally by net PnL, they have accumulated $5,940.41 in profits over 984 days. With nearly 2,000 trades across 359 markets, their total traded volume exceeds $769,000, demonstrating consistent engagement. Their portfolio value currently stands at $116,413.59, reflecting steady capital allocation.

This trader favors a low-risk, high-precision approach, as indicated by a remarkable 97.2% win rate and an exceptionally high profit factor of 205.72. Optimal-Swath’s trading style is characterized by patience and selectivity, supported by a low sell percentage of 9% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.32, suggesting modest volatility in returns. The lack of activity in weather markets and zero max drawdown duration imply disciplined risk management and a focus on markets where they hold strong informational edges.

Optimal-Swath’s key strengths include exceptional win consistency and capital preservation, evidenced by their stable equity trend and quick recovery from any losses. However, their relatively low Sharpe ratio and flat equity curve may indicate limited upside potential or conservative position sizing. Additionally, the low Bot Score suggests human-driven decision-making, which could both benefit adaptability and introduce behavioral risks under stress. Overall, Optimal-Swath’s data paints a picture of a reliable, steady trader on Polymarket with a sniper-like precision.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 89%
Profitable
PnL $+5,940
Diamond Hands
9% sell
Win Streak
61 wins in a row
Whale
$435,572
Consistent
84/94 days
Cool Head
DD 8%

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#15,652$1,226Vol: $515,308
🎭 CULTURE#801,416$-4,232Vol: $58,663
📈 ECONOMICS#2,004$1,644Vol: $58,161
CRYPTO#10,144$4,600Vol: $46,832
💰 FINANCE#634,190$-513Vol: $27,781
💻 TECH#2,700$347Vol: $11,626
SPORTS#122,233$85Vol: $11,131
🌤️ WEATHER#279,981$-237Vol: $3,685

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$5,940
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$769,423
Total Redeem
$266,332
Portfolio
$116,414
Predictions
422
total markets
Trades
1743B / 169S
Daily Volume
$443
Account Age
609d
since Nov 2, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$27
Vol: $0
Week
$503
Vol: $23,568
Month
$1,084
Vol: $144,085
All Time
$5,940
Vol: $769,423

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
87%
211W / 31L events
Realized PnL
$31,580
Win Rate
97%
239W / 7L
Profit Factor
205.72x
Avg Win
$173
Avg Loss
$-29

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $16,024 (38.8% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$7,039
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$5,167
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$3,818
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$2,225
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?$1,878
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)$1,144
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$991
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine$935
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$864
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?$861

Top Losers

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less th$-78
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$-54
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?$-33
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner$-16
Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026?$-16
Epstein client list released in 2025?$-4
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 202$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.316
Sortino
0.370
HHI
180
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.215
Kelly %
96.3%
Half-Kelly
48.1%
Top-1 market
6.1%
Top-5 markets
22.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
3.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.5h
between trades
Night Trading
11%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.42
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 204s — typical for humanSize CV 2.42 — diverse, typical for human11% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.92 — human randomness333 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.9
Moderate DCA
<=1
182 entries
<=2
233 entries
<=5
303 entries
<=10
335 entries
<=20
347 entries
<=50
358 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.7%
Mid (20-55c)6.5%
High (>55c)91.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 22.9%

Other$41,052
New York City$94
Paris$49
Warsh$38
Netanyahu$18
Los Angeles$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
254

Single bracket

<=1
188 brackets
<=2
231 brackets
<=3
245 brackets
<=4
250 brackets
<=5
252 brackets
<=8
254 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/2/2024, 3:32:04 PM1 trades$990 min
11/6/2024, 7:39:38 PM1 trades$500 min
11/6/2024, 8:20:26 PM1 trades$500 min
11/7/2024, 7:40:09 PM1 trades$100 min
2/16/2025, 12:33:45 PM1 trades$1000 min
7/28/2025, 1:21:12 PM1 trades$2070 min
9/4/2025, 12:15:06 PM1 trades$1000 min
9/12/2025, 10:36:29 AM1 trades$400 min
9/16/2025, 10:37:26 AM1 trades$4,2840 min
9/18/2025, 8:36:52 AM1 trades$5000 min
10/15/2025, 8:21:37 AM1 trades$500 min
10/15/2025, 9:32:31 AM2 trades$1004 min
10/15/2025, 9:45:19 AM1 trades$500 min
10/18/2025, 3:36:20 PM1 trades$500 min
10/28/2025, 8:03:37 AM1 trades$2480 min
10/28/2025, 8:10:41 AM1 trades$2,0000 min
10/29/2025, 4:15:09 PM1 trades$1,5000 min
10/29/2025, 5:12:01 PM1 trades$2,0000 min
10/30/2025, 9:09:13 PM2 trades$2,0001 min
10/30/2025, 10:20:41 PM1 trades$5000 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
11-09
12-20
01-17
03-16
06-02
03-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
8.8% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event