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@Ordinary-Hydraulics

#2,49695

0x4582c77130a649d807fac08fd455615f851a8fa2

113d· 11644 markets · 43767 tradesVol: $8,560,8912026-06-23T20:05
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

95
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 88%20/20
Profit Factor 533.61x15/15
Sharpe 0.54310/15
Sortino 165.85910/10
EV $+533.49610/10
HHI 5810/10
Profit Days 73%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Ordinary-Hydraulics is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranking #2496 globally with a net profit of $66,099.35. Over 97 days, they completed 43,767 trades across 291 markets, generating a substantial total volume of $8.56 million. Despite the large trading volume, their portfolio value remains modest at $4.63, supported by a strong Smart Score of 95/100, indicating elite trading skill.

The trader shows a preference for diverse markets, avoiding weather-related ones entirely, and maintains a relatively low win rate of 21.7%, paired with a very low profit factor of 0.03. This suggests a high-risk, high-frequency approach with many small losses offset by occasional larger wins. Ordinary-Hydraulics also exhibits a contrarian style, reflected in their badges and a sell percentage of 30%, indicating active position adjustments. Their Sharpe Ratio of 0.54 points to moderate risk-adjusted returns, while the zero max drawdown duration signals effective risk management.

Key strengths for Ordinary-Hydraulics include their elite Smart Score and consistent trading activity, which suggest skillful market navigation on Polymarket. However, the low profit factor and win rate raise concerns about the sustainability of their strategy, as frequent losses could undermine long-term profitability. The combination of bot and manual trading adds some automation benefits but may also introduce complexity in execution consistency.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 88%
Profitable
PnL $+66,099
Contrarian
57% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
18 wins in a row
Whale
$210,006
Consistent
32/44 days
High Roller
$2,165/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

2
CRYPTO#535$66,099Vol: $8,560,886
🎭 CULTURE#220,114$0Vol: $5

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$66,099
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$8,560,891
Total Redeem
$10,369
Portfolio
$5
Predictions
11644
total markets
Trades
30526B / 13241S
Daily Volume
$2,165
Account Age
113d
since Mar 25, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$775
Vol: $74,561
Week
$734
Vol: $129,685
Month
$7,812
Vol: $846,695
All Time
$66,099
Vol: $8,560,891

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
88%
252W / 33L events
Realized PnL
$116,524
Win Rate
22%
56W / 202L
Profit Factor
0.03x
Avg Win
$56
Avg Loss
$-499

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$827
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$153
XRP Up or Down - March 29, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$145
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$122
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$108
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$96
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$81
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$76
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$70
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$69

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$-1,479
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$-1,203
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$-1,188
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$-1,188
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$-1,144
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$-1,128
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$-1,122
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$-1,063
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$-1,029
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$-986

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.543
Sortino
165.859
HHI
58
Diversified
EV per $1
$533.496
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.3%
Top-5 markets
5.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
485.0
Very active
Markets / Day
3.2
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
2s
between trades
Avg Gap
2.1m
between trades
Night Trading
5%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.92
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
7 min
Avg Trades / Session
418.6

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
67% < 3s — suspicious speedSize CV 1.92 — diverse, typical for human5% at night — normal sleep pattern21/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.97 — human randomness485 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
104.9
Heavy DCA
<=1
7 entries
<=2
14 entries
<=5
19 entries
<=10
34 entries
<=20
43 entries
<=50
68 entries
>50
223 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)10.1%
Mid (20-55c)55%
High (>55c)34.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 51%

Other$-97,699

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
291

Single bracket

<=1
291 brackets
<=2
291 brackets
<=3
291 brackets
<=4
291 brackets
<=5
291 brackets
<=8
291 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/25/2026, 1:45:09 PM748 trades$5,5155 min
3/25/2026, 1:55:11 PM1126 trades$12,09415 min
3/25/2026, 2:15:13 PM184 trades$2,3685 min
3/25/2026, 2:50:11 PM276 trades$2,8175 min
3/25/2026, 3:10:17 PM209 trades$2,8994 min
3/25/2026, 3:40:11 PM1109 trades$11,76515 min
3/26/2026, 12:20:07 AM158 trades$9835 min
3/26/2026, 2:20:07 AM182 trades$1,9285 min
3/26/2026, 3:20:07 AM90 trades$7464 min
3/26/2026, 7:05:07 AM265 trades$1,6825 min
3/26/2026, 7:30:13 AM170 trades$1,1475 min
3/26/2026, 9:35:09 AM163 trades$1,6195 min
3/26/2026, 10:05:09 AM202 trades$1,1535 min
3/26/2026, 1:35:07 PM1082 trades$9,52915 min
3/26/2026, 1:58:11 PM661 trades$6,40911 min
3/26/2026, 2:15:09 PM646 trades$5,2055 min
3/26/2026, 2:40:09 PM637 trades$5,9664 min
3/26/2026, 2:50:07 PM180 trades$2,0104 min
3/26/2026, 3:10:09 PM647 trades$7,95210 min
3/26/2026, 3:25:11 PM327 trades$2,7575 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-25
04-01
04-14
04-29
05-15
06-04
06-23

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
30.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 104.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event