Polydata

@Organic-Manufacturer

#61,86894

0x9fbee8cf888926ae78b6061985938d8ecf85a4df

109d· 3632 markets · 2191 tradesVol: $434,389 @Ahmed_A25_2026-05-20T20:07
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

94
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 11.32x15/15
Sharpe 0.60211/15
Sortino 4.64010/10
EV $+0.66010/10
HHI 5710/10
Profit Days 59%7/10
DD/Peak 9%10/10

Summary

Organic-Manufacturer is a highly active trader on Polymarket, with 2,191 trades executed across 984 markets over 149 days. Ranked #61,868 on the global PnL leaderboard, this trader has amassed a net profit of $1,323.51 from a total trading volume of $434,389. Organic-Manufacturer holds an elite Smart Score of 94/100, reflecting consistent success, and maintains a win rate of 94.5%, indicating strong accuracy in predictions.

The trading style of Organic-Manufacturer appears focused on high-frequency participation with a preference for a long-only approach, as evidenced by a 0% sell percentage and absence of weather market trades. The strategy is low risk, supported by a profit factor of 11.32 and a Sharpe ratio of 0.60, suggesting steady returns relative to volatility. The upward equity trend and zero-day max drawdown duration imply disciplined risk management and timely market entries. Organic-Manufacturer’s high win streak and sniper badge suggest precise market timing and selective trade execution.

Organic-Manufacturer’s strengths lie in a solid track record, high accuracy, and consistent profitability, making them a reliable participant in Polymarket. However, potential risks include the relatively moderate Sharpe ratio and zero portfolio value, which might indicate limited capital allocation or recent withdrawals. Additionally, the human-like bot score suggests decisions are manually driven, which could affect scalability under different market conditions.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+1,324
Diamond Hands
1% sell
Win Streak
547 wins in a row
Whale
$70,164
Cool Head
DD 9%

Categories

3
CRYPTO#38,215$528Vol: $311,590
🏛️ POLITICS#19,507$797Vol: $122,732
🎭 CULTURE#551,240$-2Vol: $67

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,324
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$434,389
Total Redeem
$63,976
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
3632
total markets
Trades
2180B / 11S
Daily Volume
$471
Account Age
109d
since Feb 1, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$2,307
Vol: $15,635
Week
$4,143
Vol: $59,477
Month
$1,134
Vol: $207,044
All Time
$1,324
Vol: $434,389

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
250W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$23,542
Win Rate
94%
548W / 32L
Profit Factor
11.32x
Avg Win
$56
Avg Loss
$-84

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $823 (3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Iran closes its airspace by May 8?$379
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?$260
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$183
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$180
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$172
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$171
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$170
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$148
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$147
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$144

Top Losers

Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 7PM ET$-249
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3AM ET$-246
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 3AM ET$-240
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2AM ET$-202
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31?$-201
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 3AM ET$-135
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 7PM ET$-103
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 3AM ET$-85
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 3PM ET$-80
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1PM ET$-75

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.602
Sortino
4.640
HHI
57
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.660
Kelly %
87.4%
Half-Kelly
43.7%
Top-1 market
5.8%
Top-5 markets
12.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
20.3
Active
Markets / Day
9.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
46s
between trades
Avg Gap
22.2m
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.94
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.2

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 46s — typical for humanSize CV 1.94 — diverse, typical for human25% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.23 — human randomness20 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.2
Moderate DCA
<=1
719 entries
<=2
761 entries
<=5
915 entries
<=10
962 entries
<=20
978 entries
<=50
983 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.7%
Mid (20-55c)66.9%
High (>55c)31.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 58.7%

Other$27,753

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
984

Single bracket

<=1
984 brackets
<=2
984 brackets
<=3
984 brackets
<=4
984 brackets
<=5
984 brackets
<=8
984 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/1/2026, 5:22:40 PM1 trades$470 min
2/2/2026, 6:03:16 AM2 trades$600 min
2/2/2026, 10:05:22 AM1 trades$650 min
2/2/2026, 5:00:48 PM1 trades$640 min
2/2/2026, 5:14:58 PM1 trades$10 min
2/2/2026, 6:00:26 PM1 trades$750 min
2/3/2026, 5:00:30 AM2 trades$1400 min
2/3/2026, 8:00:40 AM4 trades$2562 min
2/3/2026, 8:32:24 AM1 trades$850 min
2/3/2026, 8:43:00 AM2 trades$1251 min
2/4/2026, 7:00:32 AM1 trades$2020 min
2/4/2026, 8:00:30 AM1 trades$2400 min
2/5/2026, 12:02:05 AM14 trades$2491 min
2/6/2026, 8:00:43 PM2 trades$1600 min
2/6/2026, 9:44:43 PM1 trades$1410 min
2/7/2026, 12:17:13 AM3 trades$531 min
2/7/2026, 12:24:47 AM1 trades$500 min
2/12/2026, 6:33:57 AM1 trades$390 min
2/12/2026, 8:01:21 AM2 trades$701 min
2/12/2026, 8:13:17 AM2 trades$231 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
02-06
02-19
05-03
05-10
05-16
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event