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@Organic-Manufacturer

#2,886,85298

0x9fbee8cf888926ae78b6061985938d8ecf85a4df

157d· 4220 markets · 1898 tradesVol: $650,524 @Ahmed_A25_2026-06-26T13:09
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

98
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 92%20/20
Profit Factor 14.25x15/15
Sharpe 0.69013/15
Sortino 67.91410/10
EV $+0.73810/10
HHI 7810/10
Profit Days 94%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Organic-Manufacturer is an active trader on Polymarket, with 1,898 trades across 963 markets over 149 days. Despite a high trade volume of $650,524, their net profit and loss stands at negative $4,181.91, placing them at rank #2,886,852 on the global PnL leaderboard. Their Smart Score of 98 out of 100 signifies elite trading skills, while a Sharpe ratio of 0.69 indicates moderate risk-adjusted returns.

This trader demonstrates a preference for high-volume, diverse markets, with a very low sell percentage of 1%, suggesting a buy-and-hold approach. Their win rate of 94.5% combined with a profit factor of 14.25 points to a highly selective strategy, likely focusing on favorable entry points. Organic-Manufacturer’s activity appears consistent and disciplined, with no significant drawdown duration, and a semi-automated approach as reflected in their Bot Score of 45.

Organic-Manufacturer’s strengths lie in their consistent winning trades and strong risk management, as evidenced by badges like Sniper and Diamond Hands. However, the flat equity trend and negative net PnL raise concerns about sustainability and profitability despite high accuracy. Their reliance on a semi-bot strategy might limit adaptability, and their low sell rate could expose them to stagnant positions if market conditions shift.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 92%
Diamond Hands
1% sell
Win Streak
407 wins in a row
Whale
$81,702
Consistent
29/31 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

4
CRYPTO#1,598,595$-4,294Vol: $372,824
🏛️ POLITICS#24,237$601Vol: $268,713
🌤️ WEATHER#281,860$-487Vol: $8,919
🎭 CULTURE#562,037$-2Vol: $67

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-4,182
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$650,524
Total Redeem
$64,492
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
4220
total markets
Trades
1873B / 25S
Daily Volume
$548
Account Age
157d
since Feb 1, 2026

Periods

#2
Week
$-31
Vol: $396
Month
$-540
Vol: $9,587
All Time
$-4,182
Vol: $650,524

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
92%
250W / 21L events
Realized PnL
$31,213
Win Rate
95%
482W / 28L
Profit Factor
14.25x
Avg Win
$70
Avg Loss
$-85

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $4,407 (14% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?$3,743
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?$379
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET$285
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$191
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$186
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$183
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$180
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$176
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$172
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$171

Top Losers

XRP Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$-101
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$-100
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$-99
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET$-99
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$-98
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$-96
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$-95
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$-94
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$-94
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$-94

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.690
Sortino
67.914
HHI
78
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.738
Kelly %
88.0%
Half-Kelly
44.0%
Top-1 market
5.7%
Top-5 markets
15.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
26.7
Active
Markets / Day
13.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
44s
between trades
Avg Gap
22.9m
between trades
Night Trading
22%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.82
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.8

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 44s — typical for humanSize CV 1.82 — diverse, typical for human22% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.31 — human randomness27 trades/day — suspiciously high14 markets/day — mass coverage

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.9
Single entry
<=1
821 entries
<=2
857 entries
<=5
900 entries
<=10
934 entries
<=20
955 entries
<=50
962 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.4%
Mid (20-55c)44.5%
High (>55c)54.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 58.6%

Other$31,172
Helsinki$147
Los Angeles$124
Atlanta$36
Toronto$22
New York City$15
Dallas$1
San Francisco$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
960

Single bracket

<=1
958 brackets
<=2
960 brackets
<=3
960 brackets
<=4
960 brackets
<=5
960 brackets
<=8
960 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/14/2026, 7:44:17 AM3 trades$323 min
4/14/2026, 7:52:15 AM4 trades$385 min
4/14/2026, 8:04:33 AM1 trades$300 min
4/14/2026, 8:15:39 AM1 trades$30 min
4/14/2026, 10:58:59 AM1 trades$20 min
4/14/2026, 11:29:47 AM1 trades$10 min
4/14/2026, 11:37:15 AM1 trades$40 min
4/14/2026, 11:52:43 AM1 trades$20 min
4/14/2026, 12:43:09 PM1 trades$70 min
4/15/2026, 2:33:50 AM1 trades$2050 min
5/3/2026, 9:30:20 PM2 trades$1,1430 min
5/5/2026, 4:23:52 AM1 trades$1,6780 min
5/5/2026, 3:06:00 PM1 trades$1,4800 min
5/5/2026, 3:24:52 PM1 trades$1,4800 min
5/5/2026, 3:36:12 PM1 trades$1,4800 min
5/5/2026, 4:39:06 PM1 trades$1,3240 min
5/9/2026, 9:16:42 AM1 trades$790 min
5/9/2026, 10:40:00 AM1 trades$910 min
5/9/2026, 1:22:17 PM1 trades$930 min
5/9/2026, 1:41:04 PM1 trades$950 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
02-05
02-19
05-16
05-21
05-31
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
1% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
1.3% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event