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Ornery-Swordfight

@Ornery-Swordfight

#5,44066

0x15ac9d4fb9c30fca4fec2fdecde3fdace721f3ba

180d· 5753 markets · 2207 tradesVol: $1,830,5432026-05-14T14:54
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

66
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 90%20/20
Profit Factor 0.39x0/15
Sharpe 0.3176/15
Sortino 4.76310/10
HHI 3810/10
Profit Days 94%10/10
DD/Peak 2%10/10

Summary

Ornery-Swordfight is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #5440 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 166 days, they have executed 2,207 trades across 1,199 markets, accumulating a net PnL of $23,820.71 on a total volume of $1.83 million. Their portfolio value remains stable around $1,428.90, and their smart score of 66/100 reflects solid trading performance.

This trader favors a high-frequency style with a strong focus on consistent wins, demonstrated by a 90.2% win rate and a low sell percentage of 16%. Ornery-Swordfight appears to manage risk conservatively, as evidenced by a modest Sharpe ratio of 0.32 and no max drawdown duration. Their profit factor of 0.39 suggests smaller average gains relative to losses, possibly relying on steady incremental profits rather than large swings. The absence of weather market trades indicates selective market engagement.

Ornery-Swordfight’s strengths lie in their consistency and disciplined approach, supported by badges like Sniper and Profitable. However, the relatively low profit factor and flat equity trend indicate limited upside potential and some vulnerability to market shifts. As a likely human trader with a bot score of 35/100, their rapid interface use may enhance execution speed but also exposes them to behavioral biases inherent in manual trading.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 90%
Profitable
PnL $+23,821
Win Streak
269 wins in a row
Whale
$261,302
Consistent
92/98 days
High Roller
$1,574/day
Cool Head
DD 2%

Categories

3
SPORTS#1,938$23,909Vol: $1,798,354
CRYPTO#1,308,723$-88Vol: $32,179
🏛️ POLITICS#794,639$-1Vol: $10

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$23,821
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,830,543
Total Redeem
$162,623
Portfolio
$1,429
Predictions
5753
total markets
Trades
1866B / 341S
Daily Volume
$1,574
Account Age
180d
since Nov 22, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-441
Vol: $43,895
Week
$-1,935
Vol: $628,061
Month
$-2,378
Vol: $666,668
All Time
$23,821
Vol: $1,830,543

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
91%
209W / 21L events
Realized PnL
$41,252
Win Rate
90%
945W / 103L
Profit Factor
0.39x
Avg Win
$33
Avg Loss
$-795

Top Winners

Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5$1,428
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5$1,030
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5$1,020
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5$1,010
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 13.5$1,010
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5$1,010
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5$1,010
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5$1,010
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5$1,010
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5$1,003

Top Losers

Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 220.5$-1,980
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 233.5$-1,980
Celtics vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5$-1,980
Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 218.5$-1,980
Spurs vs. Kings: O/U 234.5$-1,980
Rockets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5$-1,980
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 232.5$-1,980
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 159.5$-1,979
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 148.5$-1,979
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 147.5$-1,979

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.317
Sortino
4.763
HHI
38
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.203
Kelly %
41.9%
Half-Kelly
20.9%
Top-1 market
0.8%
Top-5 markets
3.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
15.2
Active
Markets / Day
8.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
47.4m
between trades
Night Trading
30%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.77
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.3

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 210s — typical for humanSize CV 1.77 — diverse, typical for human29% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.06 — human randomness15 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.6
Single entry
<=1
849 entries
<=2
1113 entries
<=5
1186 entries
<=10
1192 entries
<=20
1194 entries
<=50
1199 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)15.8%
Mid (20-55c)5.7%
High (>55c)78.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 95.8%

Chicago$2,317
Atlanta$2,224
Los Angeles$2,203
Seattle$1,101
Toronto$1,036
Madrid$540
Houston$268
Paris$260
Milan$237
Shanghai$162
Seoul$140
São Paulo$99
Beijing$81
Wellington$67
Austin$30
San Francisco$21
New York City$11
Chongqing$5

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.7
Events covered
697

Single bracket

<=1
444 brackets
<=2
572 brackets
<=3
630 brackets
<=4
659 brackets
<=5
687 brackets
<=8
696 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/20/2025, 4:40:53 PM3 trades$1921 min
12/20/2025, 7:21:51 PM3 trades$1931 min
12/20/2025, 7:39:43 PM7 trades$6485 min
12/20/2025, 9:26:03 PM2 trades$1580 min
12/20/2025, 9:41:01 PM1 trades$10 min
12/20/2025, 9:52:07 PM1 trades$500 min
12/21/2025, 12:46:43 PM5 trades$3271 min
12/21/2025, 12:58:11 PM5 trades$3010 min
12/21/2025, 9:09:36 PM3 trades$2980 min
12/27/2025, 3:37:09 PM5 trades$3000 min
12/28/2025, 12:48:17 PM3 trades$3052 min
12/28/2025, 6:23:27 PM4 trades$2961 min
12/29/2025, 9:31:27 PM3 trades$3141 min
12/30/2025, 10:05:51 PM4 trades$5773 min
1/3/2026, 5:44:45 PM3 trades$1571 min
1/5/2026, 9:28:29 PM2 trades$3140 min
1/8/2026, 2:17:01 AM1 trades$4950 min
1/8/2026, 2:24:51 AM1 trades$5490 min
1/11/2026, 3:17:22 AM2 trades$5450 min
1/11/2026, 3:28:12 AM1 trades$6480 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-06
01-08
02-01
03-02
03-22
04-20
05-20
05-21

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
15.5% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.7 br/event