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@Outgoing-Spacing

#72364

0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9

145d· 145 markets · 2162 tradesVol: $4,250,5862026-06-26T14:04
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

64
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 35%3/20
Profit Factor 5.76x15/15
Sharpe 0.2204/15
Sortino 1.88610/10
EV $+148.17910/10
HHI 49610/10
Profit Days 39%2/10
DD/Peak 9%10/10

Summary

Outgoing-Spacing is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 2,162 trades across 145 markets over 334 days. Ranked #723 globally by net profit and holding a positive net PnL of $255,155.98, they maintain a portfolio value of $249.60 and a Smart Score of 64, indicating above-average trading skill. Despite a relatively low Sharpe ratio of 0.22, Outgoing-Spacing’s profit factor of 6.27 reveals efficient risk-reward management.

This trader demonstrates a contrarian and patient style, reflected in a low sell percentage of 14% and a zero-day max drawdown duration, suggesting disciplined exit timing. Their win rate of 38.8% indicates a preference for high-risk, high-reward trades rather than frequent small wins. Outgoing-Spacing does not engage with weather markets and maintains a stable equity trend, which aligns with their “cool head” badge, signifying steady decision-making over time.

Outgoing-Spacing’s strengths include significant profitability and strong risk controls, as shown by a flat equity curve and minimal drawdowns. However, the relatively low win rate and Sharpe ratio imply exposure to volatility and potential periods of stagnation. As a likely human trader with a fast interface score, their approach may rely on intuition and market timing rather than systematic algorithms, which can be both an advantage and a risk depending on market conditions.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+255,156
Lottery Player
79% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
98% entries <$0.50
Whale
$159,392
Cool Head
DD 9%

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#187$260,656Vol: $3,864,994
SPORTS#1,740,763$-3,249Vol: $157,383
🎭 CULTURE#796,587$-1,177Vol: $136,877
📢 MENTIONS#2,970$316Vol: $32,458
CRYPTO#1,521,036$-446Vol: $32,206
🌤️ WEATHER#265,470$-53Vol: $15,200
📈 ECONOMICS#658,518$-462Vol: $8,838
💰 FINANCE#627,173$-430Vol: $2,630

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$255,156
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$4,250,586
Total Redeem
$76,010
Portfolio
$250
Predictions
145
total markets
Trades
1865B / 297S
Daily Volume
$477
Account Age
145d
since Feb 16, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$11
Vol: $0
Week
$-43
Vol: $0
Month
$-3,314
Vol: $107,511
All Time
$255,156
Vol: $4,250,586

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
33%
31W / 62L events
Realized PnL
$257,045
Win Rate
39%
52W / 82L
Profit Factor
6.27x
Avg Win
$5,958
Avg Loss
$-602

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $285,004 (109.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$134,670
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$94,190
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$56,144
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?$8,210
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$4,722
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?$1,190
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$963
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?$912
Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference?$826
Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5$749

Top Losers

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$-11,728
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?$-5,254
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$-5,162
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?$-3,712
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?$-2,999
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?$-1,899
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?$-1,500
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?$-1,296
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinpin$-861
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$-785

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.220
Sortino
1.886
HHI
496
Diversified
EV per $1
$148.179
Kelly %
29.6%
Half-Kelly
14.8%
Top-1 market
10.9%
Top-5 markets
42.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
17.9
Active
Markets / Day
1.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
40.1m
between trades
Night Trading
12%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.92
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.1

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 68s — typical for humanSize CV 3.92 — diverse, typical for human12% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.06 — human randomness18 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
12.9
Heavy DCA
<=1
43 entries
<=2
58 entries
<=5
83 entries
<=10
101 entries
<=20
121 entries
<=50
139 entries
>50
6 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)78.8%
Mid (20-55c)20.1%
High (>55c)1.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 95.8%

Other$262,000
Chongqing$239
Chengdu$-240
Paris$-378
Milan$-489
Madrid$-724

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.6
Events covered
93

Single bracket

<=1
68 brackets
<=2
83 brackets
<=3
85 brackets
<=4
88 brackets
<=5
89 brackets
<=8
93 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/16/2026, 5:00:35 PM1 trades$2000 min
2/17/2026, 2:20:59 PM1 trades$7500 min
2/17/2026, 7:44:11 PM1 trades$7500 min
2/18/2026, 10:15:12 AM1 trades$1510 min
2/18/2026, 12:38:06 PM1 trades$110 min
2/18/2026, 12:54:10 PM1 trades$2000 min
2/18/2026, 1:11:36 PM1 trades$00 min
2/18/2026, 1:43:22 PM1 trades$1,0000 min
2/18/2026, 1:57:54 PM6 trades$9525 min
2/18/2026, 2:29:22 PM1 trades$4,9360 min
2/18/2026, 2:57:44 PM2 trades$1,5451 min
2/18/2026, 3:09:16 PM1 trades$1,0120 min
2/18/2026, 3:20:18 PM1 trades$4000 min
2/19/2026, 8:00:22 PM2 trades$41 min
2/19/2026, 8:37:10 PM1 trades$420 min
2/19/2026, 8:45:30 PM3 trades$20 min
2/19/2026, 9:00:40 PM7 trades$3452 min
2/19/2026, 9:09:32 PM14 trades$6812 min
2/20/2026, 1:09:38 AM1 trades$580 min
2/20/2026, 2:58:02 PM2 trades$3,0003 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
04-21
04-30
05-07
05-23
06-09
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
13.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 12.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.6 br/event