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@Outgoing-Spacing

#57369

0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9

91d· 112 markets · 1607 tradesVol: $3,534,8162026-05-15T13:25
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

69
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 41%5/20
Profit Factor 8.23x15/15
Sharpe 0.2835/15
Sortino 2.63810/10
EV $+27.45410/10
HHI 6769/10
Profit Days 47%4/10
DD/Peak 4%10/10

Summary

Outgoing-Spacing is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, holding rank #573 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of approximately $270,000. Over 334 days, they executed 1,607 trades across 112 markets, accumulating a total volume of $3.53 million. Their smart score of 69 indicates solid performance, supported by a profit factor above 10, although their Sharpe ratio of 0.28 suggests modest risk-adjusted returns. Outgoing-Spacing’s portfolio value is currently stable around $900.

This trader tends to engage in a broad range of markets, showing no interest in weather-related markets and maintaining a low sell percentage of 16%. Their win rate just above 53% combined with a high profit factor points to a strategy focused on capturing outsized gains rather than consistent small wins. Outgoing-Spacing appears to utilize a contrarian and dollar-cost averaging approach, often holding positions steadily without large drawdowns, as indicated by zero max drawdown duration. The pattern suggests patient timing and a preference for longer-term plays rather than rapid scalping or high-frequency trading.

Key strengths for Outgoing-Spacing include disciplined risk management and the ability to generate strong profits with relatively stable equity trends. However, the low Sharpe ratio and flat portfolio value highlight potential limitations in volatility capture and growth acceleration. Additionally, the low bot score confirms human-driven decisions, which may introduce behavioral biases. Overall, Outgoing-Spacing demonstrates consistent profitability on Polymarket but may face challenges scaling returns further.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Profitable
PnL $+269,871
Lottery Player
81% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
99% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 12.1 entries/market
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
Whale
$115,878
Cool Head
DD 4%

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#172$273,130Vol: $3,244,746
🎭 CULTURE#761,834$-525Vol: $118,838
SPORTS#1,629,594$-2,988Vol: $104,127
CRYPTO#142,031$30Vol: $28,550
🌤️ WEATHER#242,750$-53Vol: $15,200
📢 MENTIONS#1,619$663Vol: $14,829
📈 ECONOMICS#630,919$-385Vol: $8,527

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$269,871
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$3,534,816
Total Redeem
$76,001
Portfolio
$909
Predictions
112
total markets
Trades
1358B / 249S
Daily Volume
$347
Account Age
91d
since Feb 16, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-745
Vol: $0
Week
$-1,609
Vol: $589,680
Month
$-5,335
Vol: $761,503
All Time
$269,871
Vol: $3,534,816

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
42%
32W / 45L events
Realized PnL
$279,177
Win Rate
53%
43W / 38L
Profit Factor
10.13x
Avg Win
$7,160
Avg Loss
$-800

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $285,004 (102.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$134,670
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$94,190
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$56,144
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?$8,210
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$4,722
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?$1,190
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$963
Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference?$826
Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5$749
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conferen$696

Top Losers

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$-11,728
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$-5,162
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?$-2,999
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?$-1,899
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?$-1,500
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$-785
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?$-606
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?$-520
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?$-505
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?$-500

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.283
Sortino
2.638
HHI
676
Moderate
EV per $1
$27.454
Kelly %
46.0%
Half-Kelly
23.0%
Top-1 market
15%
Top-5 markets
52.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
18.5
Active
Markets / Day
1.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
40.7m
between trades
Night Trading
11%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.16
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.1

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 68s — typical for humanSize CV 4.15 — diverse, typical for human11% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.09 — human randomness19 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
12.1
Heavy DCA
<=1
35 entries
<=2
45 entries
<=5
63 entries
<=10
77 entries
<=20
95 entries
<=50
108 entries
>50
4 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)81%
Mid (20-55c)18.8%
High (>55c)0.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 96.1%

Other$277,132
Madrid$588
Chongqing$489
Chengdu$0
Paris$-226
Milan$-489

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
77

Single bracket

<=1
56 brackets
<=2
72 brackets
<=3
72 brackets
<=4
75 brackets
<=5
75 brackets
<=8
77 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/16/2026, 5:00:35 PM1 trades$2000 min
2/17/2026, 2:20:59 PM1 trades$7500 min
2/17/2026, 7:44:11 PM1 trades$7500 min
2/18/2026, 10:15:12 AM1 trades$1510 min
2/18/2026, 12:38:06 PM1 trades$110 min
2/18/2026, 12:54:10 PM1 trades$2000 min
2/18/2026, 1:11:36 PM1 trades$00 min
2/18/2026, 1:43:22 PM1 trades$1,0000 min
2/18/2026, 1:57:54 PM6 trades$9525 min
2/18/2026, 2:29:22 PM1 trades$4,9360 min
2/18/2026, 2:57:44 PM2 trades$1,5451 min
2/18/2026, 3:09:16 PM1 trades$1,0120 min
2/18/2026, 3:20:18 PM1 trades$4000 min
2/19/2026, 8:00:22 PM2 trades$41 min
2/19/2026, 8:37:10 PM1 trades$420 min
2/19/2026, 8:45:30 PM3 trades$20 min
2/19/2026, 9:00:40 PM7 trades$3452 min
2/19/2026, 9:09:32 PM14 trades$6812 min
2/20/2026, 1:09:38 AM1 trades$580 min
2/20/2026, 2:58:02 PM2 trades$3,0003 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
04-07
04-26
05-01
05-06
05-23
07-20

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
15.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 12.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event