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Outrageous-Fixture

@Outrageous-Fixture

#8,69087

0x6c743aafd813475986dcd930f380a1f50901bd4e

282d· 1785 markets · 4043 tradesVol: $19,618,0572026-06-23T05:38
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

87
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 3.52x15/15
Sharpe 0.1934/15
Sortino 13489850.41410/10
EV $+2.52510/10
HHI 22910/10
Profit Days 99%10/10
DD/Peak 28%8/10

Summary

Outrageous-Fixture is an active trader on Polymarket, with 4,043 trades across 296 markets over 260 days. Despite a substantial total volume of $19.6 million, their net profit and loss stands at $16,208.22, placing them at rank #8690 on the global PnL leaderboard. Their Smart Score of 87/100 indicates elite trading skills, although their current portfolio value is zero and their equity trend is declining.

The trader appears to adopt a high-frequency style, making numerous trades but maintaining a relatively low win rate of 35.3% and a profit factor of 0.38, which suggests that losses outweigh gains. Outrageous-Fixture rarely sells, with just 4% sell percentage, and does not engage in weather markets. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.19 and max drawdown duration of zero days indicate limited risk-adjusted returns with quick recovery from losses, consistent with a likely human trader based on a low bot score.

Outrageous-Fixture’s key strength lies in their high Smart Score and elite badges such as Sniper and Diamond Hands, pointing to disciplined execution and resilience. However, the downward equity trend and low profit factor raise concerns about sustainability and profitability. Their high trade volume combined with negative risk-adjusted metrics suggests that while they are experienced, their approach might expose them to significant drawdown risks on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+16,208
Diamond Hands
4% sell
Win Streak
65 wins in a row
Whale
$6,648,747
Consistent
130/131 days
High Roller
$25,572/day
Cool Head
DD 28%

Categories

9
SPORTS#449$174,434Vol: $17,502,106
🏛️ POLITICS#1,606,637$-55,725Vol: $870,668
🎭 CULTURE#798,967$-5,710Vol: $563,577
CRYPTO#1,601,319$-56,822Vol: $338,073
💰 FINANCE#630,213$-702Vol: $103,095
💻 TECH#241,769$-14,747Vol: $92,001
📈 ECONOMICS#26,457$20Vol: $20,225
📢 MENTIONS#11,554$30Vol: $748
🌤️ WEATHER#75,930$0Vol: $273

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$16,208
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$19,618,057
Total Redeem
$2,852,764
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1785
total markets
Trades
3862B / 181S
Daily Volume
$25,572
Account Age
282d
since Sep 17, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$0
Vol: $0
Month
$-700,000
Vol: $1,093,750
All Time
$16,208
Vol: $19,618,057

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
228W / 1L events
Realized PnL
$2,467,170
Win Rate
35%
88W / 161L
Profit Factor
0.38x
Avg Win
$13,594
Avg Loss
$-19,522

Top Winners

Celtics vs. Cavaliers$226,322
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15?$155,561
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?$130,506
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14?$69,539
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08?$31,560
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score$31,082
Lions vs. Vikings$29,600
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23?$28,416
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?$25,540
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22?$24,166

Top Losers

Thunder vs. Spurs$-315,311
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-13?$-167,768
Bears vs. Eagles$-129,415
Will SK Rapid Wien win on 2025-10-23?$-119,544
Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-25?$-108,565
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)$-108,266
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03?$-103,500
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21?$-101,637
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?$-100,110
Rams vs. Bears$-99,820

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.193
Sortino
inf
HHI
229
Diversified
EV per $1
$2.525
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
10.5%
Top-5 markets
24.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
15.7
Active
Markets / Day
1.1
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
12s
between trades
Avg Gap
33.0m
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.61
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.6

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 12s — suspiciously fastSize CV 6.61 — diverse, typical for human15% at night — different timezone?23/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.05 — human randomness16 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
13
Heavy DCA
<=1
133 entries
<=2
159 entries
<=5
193 entries
<=10
223 entries
<=20
253 entries
<=50
279 entries
>50
17 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.3%
Mid (20-55c)27.2%
High (>55c)72.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 66.4%

Paris$72,937
Madrid$27,917
Munich$1,225
Milan$-11,708
Miami$-31,738
Other$-2,005,329

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
262

Single bracket

<=1
229 brackets
<=2
261 brackets
<=3
262 brackets
<=4
262 brackets
<=5
262 brackets
<=8
262 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/19/2025, 7:54:56 AM1 trades$1,4000 min
9/19/2025, 8:13:14 AM1 trades$1,6000 min
9/19/2025, 8:23:12 AM5 trades$1,1924 min
9/22/2025, 11:53:32 AM2 trades$7,6140 min
9/25/2025, 9:06:21 AM1 trades$2,0700 min
9/25/2025, 10:06:45 PM1 trades$2,5760 min
9/28/2025, 12:01:43 PM1 trades$3,0000 min
9/28/2025, 7:30:15 PM1 trades$3,0040 min
9/28/2025, 8:41:33 PM1 trades$3,0040 min
9/29/2025, 8:43:27 AM1 trades$9,7600 min
9/29/2025, 6:55:47 PM3 trades$9750 min
9/29/2025, 7:28:11 PM1 trades$9900 min
9/29/2025, 9:09:11 PM3 trades$12,7211 min
9/29/2025, 9:37:05 PM1 trades$1360 min
9/29/2025, 9:48:11 PM1 trades$90 min
9/29/2025, 9:58:35 PM3 trades$8258 min
9/29/2025, 10:13:57 PM1 trades$830 min
9/29/2025, 10:28:01 PM1 trades$1410 min
9/29/2025, 10:51:03 PM1 trades$9890 min
9/30/2025, 5:12:47 AM1 trades$6,3280 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
09-17
11-13
12-07
01-11
02-17
03-20
05-22

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
4.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 13/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event