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Outrageous-Fixture

@Outrageous-Fixture

#19371

0x6c743aafd813475986dcd930f380a1f50901bd4e

243d· 1771 markets · 4203 tradesVol: $18,043,4522026-05-15T16:39
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

71
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.33x0/15
Sharpe 0.59511/15
Sortino 18805532.32710/10
HHI 15510/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Outrageous-Fixture is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked 193rd on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of over $700,000. Over 238 days, they completed 4,203 trades across 291 different markets, accumulating more than $18 million in total volume. Despite their significant activity, their portfolio currently holds no open positions, and their trading equity has remained stable, reflecting a cautious approach to exposure.

This trader favors a diversified strategy, engaging in a wide variety of markets without a specific focus on weather-related events. With a relatively low win rate of 32.4% but a modest profit factor of 0.33, Outrageous-Fixture appears to employ a risk-tolerant style, likely capturing occasional large wins rather than frequent small profits. Their sell percentage is low at 4%, suggesting a preference for holding positions rather than quick turnover. The Sharpe ratio of 0.59 indicates moderate risk-adjusted returns, and the absence of drawdown duration shows disciplined risk management.

Outrageous-Fixture’s key strengths lie in their experience and consistency, as indicated by a very good smart score of 71 and badges highlighting precision and profitability. However, a profit factor below 1 and a win rate under 35% suggest they rely on selective, high-impact trades that carry substantial risk. While their stable equity trend reduces concerns about volatility, traders should consider the potential for large swings inherent in their approach when analyzing this Polymarket participant.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+708,203
Diamond Hands
4% sell
Win Streak
58 wins in a row
Whale
$5,806,770
Consistent
126/126 days
High Roller
$24,394/day

Categories

9
SPORTS#90$841,827Vol: $16,030,347
🏛️ POLITICS#1,542,625$-55,725Vol: $870,668
🎭 CULTURE#771,160$-5,710Vol: $563,577
CRYPTO#1,509,920$-56,822Vol: $338,073
💰 FINANCE#597,403$-702Vol: $103,095
💻 TECH#231,435$-14,747Vol: $92,001
📈 ECONOMICS#25,205$20Vol: $20,225
📢 MENTIONS#11,280$30Vol: $748
🌤️ WEATHER#69,893$0Vol: $273

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$708,203
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$18,043,452
Total Redeem
$2,566,841
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1771
total markets
Trades
4022B / 181S
Daily Volume
$24,394
Account Age
243d
since Sep 17, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$483
Vol: $98,227
Month
$42,982
Vol: $768,769
All Time
$708,203
Vol: $18,043,452

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
229W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$2,369,497
Win Rate
32%
81W / 169L
Profit Factor
0.33x
Avg Win
$13,537
Avg Loss
$-19,396

Top Winners

Celtics vs. Cavaliers$226,322
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15?$155,561
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?$130,506
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14?$69,539
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08?$31,560
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score$31,082
Lions vs. Vikings$29,600
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?$25,540
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04?$22,800
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17?$20,847

Top Losers

Thunder vs. Spurs$-315,311
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-13?$-167,768
Bears vs. Eagles$-129,415
Will SK Rapid Wien win on 2025-10-23?$-119,544
Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-25?$-108,565
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)$-108,266
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03?$-103,500
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21?$-101,637
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?$-100,110
Rams vs. Bears$-99,820

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.595
Sortino
inf
HHI
155
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.431
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.7%
Top-5 markets
19.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
17.7
Active
Markets / Day
1.2
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
12s
between trades
Avg Gap
31.9m
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.41
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.5

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 12s — suspiciously fastSize CV 5.41 — diverse, typical for human15% at night — normal sleep pattern23/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.05 — human randomness18 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
13.8
Heavy DCA
<=1
128 entries
<=2
152 entries
<=5
187 entries
<=10
216 entries
<=20
247 entries
<=50
273 entries
>50
18 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.3%
Mid (20-55c)26%
High (>55c)73.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 65.8%

Paris$72,937
Madrid$21,602
Munich$1,225
Milan$-11,708
Miami$-31,738
Other$-2,233,788

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
259

Single bracket

<=1
228 brackets
<=2
258 brackets
<=3
259 brackets
<=4
259 brackets
<=5
259 brackets
<=8
259 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/17/2025, 5:53:30 PM1 trades$2,0000 min
9/19/2025, 7:54:56 AM1 trades$1,4000 min
9/19/2025, 8:13:14 AM1 trades$1,6000 min
9/19/2025, 8:23:12 AM5 trades$1,1924 min
9/22/2025, 11:53:32 AM2 trades$7,6140 min
9/25/2025, 9:06:21 AM1 trades$2,0700 min
9/25/2025, 10:06:45 PM1 trades$2,5760 min
9/28/2025, 12:01:43 PM1 trades$3,0000 min
9/28/2025, 7:30:15 PM1 trades$3,0040 min
9/28/2025, 8:41:33 PM1 trades$3,0040 min
9/29/2025, 8:43:27 AM1 trades$9,7600 min
9/29/2025, 6:55:47 PM3 trades$9750 min
9/29/2025, 7:28:11 PM1 trades$9900 min
9/29/2025, 9:09:11 PM3 trades$12,7211 min
9/29/2025, 9:37:05 PM1 trades$1360 min
9/29/2025, 9:48:11 PM1 trades$90 min
9/29/2025, 9:58:35 PM3 trades$8258 min
9/29/2025, 10:13:57 PM1 trades$830 min
9/29/2025, 10:28:01 PM1 trades$1410 min
9/29/2025, 10:51:03 PM1 trades$9890 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
09-17
11-10
12-05
01-09
02-11
03-17

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
4.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 13.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event