Polydata

@Overdue-Paranoia

#10,79881

0x4b305b37c8204dbbee20ee70692a3f6778f62359

34d· 7 markets · 172 tradesVol: $301,8542026-06-07T16:50
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

81
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 99.00x15/15
Sharpe 0.53310/15
Sortino 1738005.63710/10
EV $+0.1116/10
HHI 29620/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Overdue-Paranoia is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranking #10,798 globally by profit and loss. With 172 trades across 7 different markets over 46 days, they have generated a net PnL of $12,166 on a total volume of $301,854. Their portfolio value currently stands at $12,618, showing consistent growth. The trader’s Smart Score of 81 out of 100 reflects a very good performance, and their Sharpe ratio of 0.53 indicates moderate risk-adjusted returns.

This trader prefers a focused approach, concentrating on a limited number of markets while maintaining a 100% win rate, which suggests careful selection and timing. Their strategy involves slightly more selling than buying, with 56% of trades being sells, and they appear to avoid weather-related markets entirely. Overdue-Paranoia demonstrates disciplined manual trading without the assistance of bots, employing techniques like dollar-cost averaging and sniper-like precision to capitalize on market opportunities.

Overdue-Paranoia’s strengths lie in their flawless win rate, upward equity trend, and consistent profitability, earning them badges such as Profitable and Win Streak. However, their profit factor is recorded as 0.00, which may indicate an anomaly or data quirk worth monitoring. While their Sharpe ratio is positive, it is relatively modest, suggesting room for improvement in balancing risk and reward. Overall, their manual, focused trading style offers solid potential but may face challenges scaling or adapting to more volatile markets.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+12,166
DCA Master
avg 10.9 entries/market
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
Whale
$131,516
Consistent
7/7 days
High Roller
$2,859/day

Categories

1
🏛️ POLITICS#3,114$12,166Vol: $301,854

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$12,166
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$301,854
Total Redeem
$36,616
Portfolio
$12,619
Predictions
7
total markets
Trades
76B / 96S
Daily Volume
$2,859
Account Age
34d
since May 4, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$221
Vol: $0
Week
$855
Vol: $0
Month
$855
Vol: $41,445
All Time
$12,166
Vol: $301,854

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
4W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$11,894
Win Rate
100%
5W / 0L
Profit Factor
0x
Avg Win
$2,116
Avg Loss
$0

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $10,535 (99.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$9,037
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?$756
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?$742
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$37
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?$8

Top Losers

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.533
Sortino
inf
HHI
2962
Concentrated
EV per $1
$0.111
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
45.4%
Top-5 markets
96.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
5.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
11/24
Normal
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
37s
between trades
Avg Gap
28.2m
between trades
Night Trading
6%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.23
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
37
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.6

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 37s — typical for humanSize CV 1.22 — diverse, typical for human6% at night — normal sleep pattern11/24 hours — normal hoursSession CV 0.85 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
10.9
Heavy DCA
<=1
2 entries
<=2
3 entries
<=5
3 entries
<=10
3 entries
<=20
6 entries
<=50
7 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.3%
Mid (20-55c)3.9%
High (>55c)94.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 1.9%

Other$10,580

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.8
Events covered
4

Single bracket

<=1
2 brackets
<=2
3 brackets
<=3
4 brackets
<=4
4 brackets
<=5
4 brackets
<=8
4 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/4/2026, 4:19:28 PM1 trades$2,4990 min
5/18/2026, 7:08:45 PM1 trades$2,5360 min
5/20/2026, 3:42:56 PM2 trades$2,5351 min
5/20/2026, 4:17:09 PM1 trades$9930 min
5/20/2026, 4:23:20 PM1 trades$1,0000 min
5/20/2026, 5:27:23 PM2 trades$2,9562 min
5/20/2026, 6:09:56 PM1 trades$2,5000 min
5/21/2026, 5:12:38 PM1 trades$3,0000 min
5/21/2026, 6:16:53 PM1 trades$2,0010 min
5/21/2026, 6:24:55 PM2 trades$2,0341 min
5/21/2026, 8:51:41 PM1 trades$6,7000 min
5/22/2026, 1:46:07 PM1 trades$2,1000 min
5/24/2026, 1:40:28 PM2 trades$1070 min
5/24/2026, 1:47:18 PM1 trades$3,3630 min
5/28/2026, 1:54:21 PM18 trades$19,70011 min
5/28/2026, 3:16:53 PM30 trades$40,57512 min
5/28/2026, 4:19:23 PM2 trades$7,5601 min
5/28/2026, 7:20:06 PM6 trades$11,2692 min
5/28/2026, 7:31:22 PM19 trades$27,00413 min
5/28/2026, 7:59:08 PM2 trades$4,1201 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-15
05-28
05-29
05-31
06-07
06-15
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
55.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 10.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.8 br/event