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Pastel-Method

@Pastel-Method

#1,62238

0x606d65fca4f80b75926c106d0ac8d3ce90bf1aaf

637d· 1834 markets · 2937 tradesVol: $4,768,6002026-06-27T04:57
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

38
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 93%20/20
Profit Factor 0.37x0/15
HHI 8010/10
Profit Days 60%7/10

Summary

Pastel-Method is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #1622 on the global PnL leaderboard. With a net profit of $106,290.19 over 762 days and nearly 3,000 trades across 858 markets, they demonstrate consistent engagement. Despite a below-average Smart Score of 38/100 and a negative Sharpe Ratio of -0.21, their portfolio value is steadily increasing, reflecting a positive equity trend. Pastel-Method's win rate of 73.7% shows frequent success, though their profit factor of 0.37 suggests limited profitability per trade.

The trader prefers a diverse range of markets but avoids weather-related ones entirely. Their risk profile appears moderate, with a low sell percentage of 18%, indicating a tendency to hold positions rather than exit quickly. Pastel-Method’s timing favors manual, human-driven trades rather than automated bot activity, as reflected in their low bot score of 15/100. This approach aligns with their badges as a sniper and high roller, implying selective, high-stakes bets rather than frequent, low-risk trades.

Pastel-Method’s key strength lies in their consistent win rate and upward equity trend, suggesting disciplined trade selection and portfolio growth. However, the low profit factor and negative Sharpe Ratio highlight potential concerns about risk-adjusted returns and volatility. Their manual trading style may also limit scalability, and the below-average Smart Score indicates room for improvement in strategic decision-making on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 93%
Profitable
PnL $+106,290
Win Streak
43 wins in a row
Whale
$1,608,090
High Roller
$2,110/day

Categories

7
CRYPTO#1,532$26,504Vol: $2,655,002
SPORTS#1,259$44,275Vol: $1,354,459
🏛️ POLITICS#19,149$886Vol: $84,363
💰 FINANCE#1,422$3,394Vol: $36,649
🎭 CULTURE#786,827$-325Vol: $26,072
📈 ECONOMICS#632,764$-50Vol: $2,264
🌤️ WEATHER#249,415$-19Vol: $39

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$106,290
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$4,768,600
Total Redeem
$809,214
Portfolio
$112,741
Predictions
1834
total markets
Trades
2410B / 527S
Daily Volume
$2,110
Account Age
637d
since Oct 7, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$669
Vol: $0
Week
$-10,700
Vol: $162,437
Month
$-9,449
Vol: $525,121
All Time
$106,290
Vol: $4,768,600

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
96%
227W / 10L events
Realized PnL
$352,439
Win Rate
74%
506W / 181L
Profit Factor
0.37x
Avg Win
$337
Avg Loss
$-2,532

Top Winners

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?$37,600
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15?$11,999
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?$10,563
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs$8,086
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca$3,641
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025?$3,150
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10?$3,144
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs$2,950
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?$2,217
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner$2,212

Top Losers

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?$-25,000
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025?$-18,013
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner$-15,100
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 13?$-14,000
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner$-13,800
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$-13,298
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-31?$-11,261
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?$-10,000
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?$-10,000
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$-9,783

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.214
Sortino
-0.171
HHI
80
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.214
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.2%
Top-5 markets
11.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
8.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
2.6
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
57.9m
between trades
Night Trading
3%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.02
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 118s — typical for humanSize CV 3.02 — diverse, typical for human3% at night — normal sleep pattern23/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.08 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.8
Moderate DCA
<=1
479 entries
<=2
639 entries
<=5
783 entries
<=10
823 entries
<=20
849 entries
<=50
856 entries
>50
2 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)2.4%
Mid (20-55c)29%
High (>55c)68.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 43.7%

Madrid$3,857
Paris$1,038
Miami$145
Atlanta$67
Chicago$56
Toronto$26
Houston$14
London$1
Milan$0
Munich$0
Seoul$0
Dallas$-500
Up or Down$-4,931
Other$-287,356

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
757

Single bracket

<=1
711 brackets
<=2
734 brackets
<=3
745 brackets
<=4
749 brackets
<=5
752 brackets
<=8
756 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
7/31/2025, 7:17:36 AM1 trades$5880 min
8/1/2025, 7:57:32 PM1 trades$2780 min
8/3/2025, 1:52:13 PM1 trades$3,0000 min
8/9/2025, 5:58:19 AM1 trades$7510 min
8/11/2025, 5:34:28 AM4 trades$2,1942 min
8/31/2025, 2:58:32 PM2 trades$6,5704 min
9/5/2025, 4:38:12 PM3 trades$7,4861 min
9/15/2025, 5:13:38 PM1 trades$11,9540 min
9/19/2025, 5:22:24 PM1 trades$4320 min
10/6/2025, 8:19:07 AM1 trades$9000 min
10/6/2025, 6:01:08 PM1 trades$5560 min
10/8/2025, 2:50:54 PM1 trades$1,0000 min
10/8/2025, 3:01:12 PM1 trades$2000 min
10/8/2025, 5:08:06 PM1 trades$3300 min
10/9/2025, 1:09:11 PM3 trades$1,6881 min
10/19/2025, 4:09:59 PM1 trades$2,5980 min
10/22/2025, 8:27:36 AM1 trades$4,8000 min
10/23/2025, 4:48:29 PM1 trades$150 min
11/1/2025, 8:51:30 AM1 trades$12,3000 min
11/1/2025, 8:56:50 AM1 trades$8000 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-14
01-11
02-16
03-20
04-16
05-15
06-22

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0.2% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
17.9% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event