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@Peppery-Archives

#1,947,73615

0xdab099d8da7b854d062648a482b7fceecd24841c

80d· 83 markets · 155 tradesVol: $1,8252026-05-18T03:08
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

15
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 38%4/20
Profit Factor 0.86x1/15
HHI 16810/10
Profit Days 20%0/10

Summary

Peppery-Archives is a relatively new trader on Polymarket, ranked #1,947,736 globally with a net loss of $25.05. Over 85 days, they have made 155 trades across 83 markets, accumulating a total volume of $1,825. Despite the negative net PnL, Peppery-Archives maintains a win rate of 57.7% and a profit factor of 2.44, suggesting some profitable trades. Their portfolio value currently stands at zero, and their Sharpe ratio is negative at -0.40, indicating volatility in returns.

The trading style of Peppery-Archives appears to be manual and somewhat cautious, evidenced by a low bot score and a sell percentage of 22%. They do not engage in weather markets and have a contrarian approach, as reflected in their badges, which include "Lottery Player" and "Contrarian." Their trading activity shows an upward equity trend, suggesting gradual improvement over time. Timing-wise, Peppery-Archives seems to take moderate risks, balancing between holding and selling positions without aggressive leverage.

Peppery-Archives’ main strength lies in a favorable profit factor and a growing equity trend, pointing to potential for learning and adaptation. However, their beginner status, negative Sharpe ratio, and net losses highlight risks associated with inexperience and inconsistent performance. Continued activity and refinement of strategy could help mitigate these concerns in Polymarket’s dynamic environment.

Badges

3
Lottery Player
36% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
93% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
9 wins in a row

Categories

2
CRYPTO#1,197,127$-28Vol: $1,662
SPORTS#320,549$3Vol: $164

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-25
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,825
Total Redeem
$78
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
83
total markets
Trades
121B / 34S
Daily Volume
$4
Account Age
80d
since Mar 1, 2026

Periods

#2
Month
$-19
Vol: $1,799
All Time
$-25
Vol: $1,825

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
38%
31W / 51L events
Realized PnL
$97
Win Rate
58%
30W / 22L
Profit Factor
2.44x
Avg Win
$5
Avg Loss
$-3

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $57 (63.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$15
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians$12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$9
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$7
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals$7
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$5

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$-6
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies$-6
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$-5
Will Solana reach $100 in May?$-4
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET$-3
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?$-2

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.395
Sortino
-1.619
HHI
168
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.206
Kelly %
34.3%
Half-Kelly
17.2%
Top-1 market
4.1%
Top-5 markets
15.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.1
Active Hours
17/24
Extended
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
16.1m
between trades
Night Trading
26%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.82
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
40
Avg Duration
6 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.9

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 153s — typical for humanSize CV 0.82 — diverse, typical for human26% at night — bot never sleeps17/24 hours — normal hoursSession CV 0.71 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.5
Single entry
<=1
50 entries
<=2
79 entries
<=5
83 entries
<=10
83 entries
<=20
83 entries
<=50
83 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)35.5%
Mid (20-55c)60.3%
High (>55c)4.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 58.5%

Other$90
Lucknow$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
82

Single bracket

<=1
81 brackets
<=2
82 brackets
<=3
82 brackets
<=4
82 brackets
<=5
82 brackets
<=8
82 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/1/2026, 1:42:03 PM1 trades$60 min
5/14/2026, 3:51:09 PM1 trades$130 min
5/14/2026, 5:58:54 PM1 trades$50 min
5/15/2026, 2:05:52 AM1 trades$10 min
5/15/2026, 2:10:53 AM1 trades$10 min
5/15/2026, 2:18:03 AM2 trades$52 min
5/15/2026, 3:18:40 AM3 trades$146 min
5/15/2026, 4:12:25 AM2 trades$21 min
5/15/2026, 4:18:39 AM15 trades$3031 min
5/15/2026, 5:35:46 AM2 trades$20 min
5/15/2026, 5:41:08 AM3 trades$175 min
5/15/2026, 5:53:34 AM2 trades$73 min
5/15/2026, 6:26:49 AM4 trades$86 min
5/15/2026, 6:41:03 AM1 trades$10 min
5/15/2026, 6:46:39 AM1 trades$50 min
5/15/2026, 6:57:04 AM2 trades$62 min
5/15/2026, 7:07:56 AM1 trades$30 min
5/15/2026, 7:36:56 AM6 trades$308 min
5/15/2026, 7:51:43 AM4 trades$252 min
5/15/2026, 9:46:22 AM12 trades$2825 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-08
05-14
05-15
05-16
05-17
05-18
05-21
05-22
05-24
06-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
21.9% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event