Polydata

@Peppery-Archives

#2,114,81015

0xdab099d8da7b854d062648a482b7fceecd24841c

126d· 103 markets · 192 tradesVol: $2,0532026-07-03T04:46
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

15
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 37%4/20
Profit Factor 0.87x1/15
HHI 14010/10
Profit Days 31%0/10

Summary

Peppery-Archives is an infrequent and relatively inexperienced trader on Polymarket, ranked #2,114,810 globally with a net PnL of -$27.19. Over 94 days, they have executed 192 trades across 103 markets, accumulating a total volume of $2,053. Despite a modest win rate of 60.7%, their overall portfolio value stands at zero, and their equity trend is downward, reflecting recent losses and limited profitability.

The trader’s style appears opportunistic, focusing on a wide range of markets without a specific preference, as indicated by zero exposure to weather markets and a relatively low sell percentage of 23%. Peppery-Archives shows a contrarian approach, suggested by their badges, and tends to hold positions rather than frequently exiting. Their profit factor of 2.66 indicates some ability to generate returns on winning trades, though their Sharpe ratio of -0.32 implies poor risk-adjusted performance and negative returns relative to volatility.

Peppery-Archives’ strengths include a decent win rate and a profit factor above 2, which suggest some skill in identifying profitable trades. However, the negative net PnL, low smart score, and downward equity trend highlight risks such as inconsistent performance and potential lack of strategic discipline. Their beginner status and manual trading style may also limit scalability and expose them to emotional biases in Polymarket’s dynamic environment.

Badges

3
Lottery Player
34% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
93% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
9 wins in a row

Categories

2
CRYPTO#1,304,528$-36Vol: $1,877
SPORTS#282,062$9Vol: $176

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-27
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,053
Total Redeem
$90
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
103
total markets
Trades
148B / 44S
Daily Volume
$4
Account Age
126d
since Mar 1, 2026

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
37%
38W / 64L events
Realized PnL
$114
Win Rate
61%
37W / 24L
Profit Factor
2.66x
Avg Win
$5
Avg Loss
$-3

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $57 (53% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$15
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians$12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$9
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$7
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals$7
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$6

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$-6
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies$-6
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$-5
Will Solana reach $100 in May?$-4
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET$-3
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?$-2

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.325
Sortino
-1.025
HHI
141
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.192
Kelly %
38.4%
Half-Kelly
19.2%
Top-1 market
3.7%
Top-5 markets
13.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.1
Active Hours
17/24
Extended
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
17.3m
between trades
Night Trading
29%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.84
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
5 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.7

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 145s — typical for humanSize CV 0.84 — diverse, typical for human29% at night — bot never sleeps17/24 hours — normal hoursSession CV 0.71 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.4
Single entry
<=1
63 entries
<=2
99 entries
<=5
103 entries
<=10
103 entries
<=20
103 entries
<=50
103 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)34.5%
Mid (20-55c)61.5%
High (>55c)4.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 56.3%

Other$107
Lucknow$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
101

Single bracket

<=1
100 brackets
<=2
101 brackets
<=3
101 brackets
<=4
101 brackets
<=5
101 brackets
<=8
101 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/1/2026, 1:42:03 PM1 trades$60 min
5/14/2026, 3:51:09 PM1 trades$130 min
5/14/2026, 5:58:54 PM1 trades$50 min
5/15/2026, 2:05:52 AM1 trades$10 min
5/15/2026, 2:10:53 AM1 trades$10 min
5/15/2026, 2:18:03 AM2 trades$52 min
5/15/2026, 3:18:40 AM3 trades$146 min
5/15/2026, 4:12:25 AM2 trades$21 min
5/15/2026, 4:18:39 AM15 trades$3031 min
5/15/2026, 5:35:46 AM2 trades$20 min
5/15/2026, 5:41:08 AM3 trades$175 min
5/15/2026, 5:53:34 AM2 trades$73 min
5/15/2026, 6:26:49 AM4 trades$86 min
5/15/2026, 6:41:03 AM1 trades$10 min
5/15/2026, 6:46:39 AM1 trades$50 min
5/15/2026, 6:57:04 AM2 trades$62 min
5/15/2026, 7:07:56 AM1 trades$30 min
5/15/2026, 7:36:56 AM6 trades$308 min
5/15/2026, 7:51:43 AM4 trades$252 min
5/15/2026, 9:46:22 AM12 trades$2825 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-08
05-15
05-17
05-21
05-24
06-02
06-09

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
22.9% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event