Polydata
Pestle

@Pestle

#7554

0x241f846866c2de4fb67cdb0ca6b963d85e56ef50

548d· 10266 markets · 4094 tradesVol: $187,161,5652026-07-03T04:57
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

54
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 10%0/20
Profit Factor 1224982.57x15/15
Sharpe 0.2415/15
Sortino 305529.18610/10
EV $+1206170.06510/10
HHI 99680/10
Profit Days 49%5/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Pestle is a highly active Polymarket trader ranked 75th on the global PnL leaderboard. With a net profit of over $1.9 million and a total trading volume exceeding $187 million, Pestle has made more than 4,000 trades across 3,454 markets over 467 days. Their win rate stands at 66.7%, and their profit factor is a solid 2.21, reflecting consistent profitability. Pestle’s smart score is average at 54/100, and their portfolio value currently sits at $18.26, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.24 indicating modest risk-adjusted returns.

Pestle’s trading strategy appears diversified, engaging in a wide range of markets with a notable 16% exposure to weather markets. Their approach blends manual and semi-automated trading, reflected in a bot score of 55/100, suggesting a hybrid style. Pestle demonstrates a low sell percentage of 1%, indicative of a “diamond hands” holding pattern rather than quick flips. Their trading style is somewhat contrarian and hedging-oriented, supported by badges such as Contrarian and Hedger, implying a balanced risk profile that avoids excessive drawdown, as evidenced by zero days of max drawdown duration.

Key strengths for Pestle include strong profitability, disciplined trade execution, and an upward equity trend, signaling effective market timing and risk management. However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio and average smart score suggest there might be room for optimizing risk-adjusted returns. Additionally, semi-bot trading may introduce operational risks, and a low sell rate could expose Pestle to prolonged market downturns. Overall, Pestle’s data on Polymarket highlights a successful but cautiously risk-managed trader.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Profitable
PnL $+1,907,160
Lottery Player
100% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
100% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
1% sell
Hedger
avg 3.8 brackets/event
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
📈 ECONOMICS#1$1,762,149Vol: $107,524,727
🏛️ POLITICS#1,610$28,967Vol: $40,018,701
🎭 CULTURE#738$10,905Vol: $20,131,189
SPORTS#763$92,623Vol: $13,427,507
CRYPTO#1,560,189$-882Vol: $3,816,390
💻 TECH#1,176$1,188Vol: $1,181,228
💰 FINANCE#442$11,469Vol: $137,522
📢 MENTIONS#2,602$382Vol: $24,890
🌤️ WEATHER#247,199$-15Vol: $14,224

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,907,160
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$187,161,565
Total Redeem
$6
Portfolio
$18
Predictions
10266
total markets
Trades
4071B / 23S
Daily Volume
$38
Account Age
548d
since Jan 3, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$-4
Vol: $2,469
Month
$-2
Vol: $965
All Time
$1,907,160
Vol: $187,161,565

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
15%
133W / 743L events
Realized PnL
$27,121,342
Win Rate
67%
2W / 1L
Profit Factor
2.21x
Avg Win
$12,093
Avg Loss
$-10,925

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $24,186 (182.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominati$24,180
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C$6

Top Losers

Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomina$-10,925

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.241
Sortino
inf
HHI
9968
Concentrated
EV per $1
$1206170.065
Kelly %
66.7%
Half-Kelly
33.3%
Top-1 market
99.8%
Top-5 markets
99.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
22.3
Active
Markets / Day
18.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
17.5m
between trades
Night Trading
18%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
41.24
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 78s — typical for humanSize CV 41.24 — diverse, typical for human18% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.94 — human randomness22 trades/day — suspiciously high19 markets/day — mass coverage3297 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.2
Single entry
<=1
2960 entries
<=2
3343 entries
<=5
3443 entries
<=10
3448 entries
<=20
3448 entries
<=50
3448 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)100%
Mid (20-55c)0%
High (>55c)0%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 0.1%

Other$13,261
Atlanta$0
New York City$0
Los Angeles$0
Austin$0
Seoul$0
Paris$0
Wellington$0
Sao Paulo$0
Lucknow$0
Madrid$0
Warsaw$0
Chengdu$0
Istanbul$0
Helsinki$0
London$0
Munich$0
Jeddah$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
3.8
Events covered
917

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
373 brackets
<=2
479 brackets
<=3
563 brackets
<=4
629 brackets
<=5
686 brackets
<=8
829 brackets
>8
88 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/31/2025, 8:57:41 AM2 trades$14,9251 min
3/26/2026, 11:15:07 AM1 trades$20 min
3/26/2026, 11:28:17 AM1 trades$10 min
4/2/2026, 8:32:15 PM1 trades$00 min
4/6/2026, 8:39:57 PM1 trades$2,7880 min
4/6/2026, 8:52:15 PM1 trades$2,7880 min
4/7/2026, 5:19:37 PM1 trades$00 min
4/8/2026, 5:53:55 PM1 trades$00 min
4/10/2026, 1:21:27 PM1 trades$00 min
4/11/2026, 8:56:19 AM1 trades$00 min
4/12/2026, 2:35:07 PM1 trades$00 min
4/13/2026, 4:46:01 PM1 trades$00 min
4/14/2026, 8:17:55 AM1 trades$00 min
4/25/2026, 3:52:24 PM1 trades$00 min
5/2/2026, 8:42:12 PM1 trades$00 min
5/3/2026, 12:29:26 PM1 trades$00 min
5/6/2026, 7:11:45 PM1 trades$00 min
5/8/2026, 9:43:16 AM1 trades$00 min
5/12/2026, 4:47:34 AM1 trades$00 min
5/14/2026, 7:30:53 PM1 trades$00 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
06-24
11-04
02-18
04-29
05-26
06-16

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
15.9% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.6% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.2/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 3.8 br/event