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Pestle

@Pestle

#7556

0x241f846866c2de4fb67cdb0ca6b963d85e56ef50

546d· 10065 markets · 2155 tradesVol: $187,159,7402026-06-29T22:47
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

56
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 23%0/20
Profit Factor 3062344.63x15/15
Sharpe 0.2645/15
Sortino 777326.28810/10
EV $+2869466.88510/10
HHI 81670/10
Profit Days 52%6/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Pestle is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #75 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of over $1.9 million. With 2,155 trades across 1,485 markets over 467 days, Pestle has maintained a strong presence and demonstrated consistent profitability, reflected in a profit factor of 2.21 and a win rate of 75%. Their portfolio value stands at $23.49, supported by an upward equity trend, indicating steady growth.

Pestle’s trading style combines both manual and algorithmic elements, as suggested by their semi-bot score of 45/100. They show a preference for diverse markets, including a notable 14% allocation to weather markets, highlighting a broad risk appetite. Their low sell percentage of 2% and badges like Diamond Hands and Cool Head suggest a patient, long-term holding approach with a contrarian edge. Pestle’s moderate Sharpe ratio of 0.26 points to a balanced risk profile with controlled volatility over time.

The key strengths of Pestle include disciplined execution and a strong win rate that supports consistent profitability. Their experience across many markets and ability to stay calm under pressure are assets in the dynamic Polymarket environment. However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio and a bot score below 50 may indicate room for improvement in risk-adjusted returns and automation efficiency. Overall, Pestle’s strategy appears robust but could benefit from enhanced risk management techniques.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+1,907,168
Lottery Player
88% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
90% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
2% sell
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
📈 ECONOMICS#1$1,762,149Vol: $107,524,707
🏛️ POLITICS#1,598$28,966Vol: $40,018,172
🎭 CULTURE#733$10,906Vol: $20,130,624
SPORTS#733$92,622Vol: $13,427,500
CRYPTO#1,554,188$-882Vol: $3,816,390
💻 TECH#1,166$1,189Vol: $1,181,126
💰 FINANCE#445$11,475Vol: $137,046
📢 MENTIONS#2,599$382Vol: $24,825
🌤️ WEATHER#246,215$-15Vol: $14,200

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,907,168
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$187,159,740
Total Redeem
$12
Portfolio
$23
Predictions
10065
total markets
Trades
2108B / 47S
Daily Volume
$42
Account Age
546d
since Jan 3, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$4
Vol: $366
Week
$4
Vol: $644
Month
$7,095
Vol: $29,346
All Time
$1,907,168
Vol: $187,159,740

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
24%
144W / 455L events
Realized PnL
$27,121,342
Win Rate
75%
3W / 1L
Profit Factor
2.21x
Avg Win
$8,064
Avg Loss
$-10,925

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $24,192 (182.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominati$24,180
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C$6
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026?$6

Top Losers

Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomina$-10,925

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.264
Sortino
inf
HHI
8167
Concentrated
EV per $1
$2869466.885
Kelly %
75.0%
Half-Kelly
37.5%
Top-1 market
89.8%
Top-5 markets
99.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
11.9
Active
Markets / Day
8.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
2:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
31.9m
between trades
Night Trading
28%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
26.69
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
8.0

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 146s — typical for humanSize CV 26.69 — diverse, typical for human28% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.97 — human randomness12 trades/day — very active1350 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 2:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.4
Single entry
<=1
1223 entries
<=2
1416 entries
<=5
1475 entries
<=10
1478 entries
<=20
1478 entries
<=50
1478 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)87.8%
Mid (20-55c)3.3%
High (>55c)8.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 0.1%

Other$13,267
Atlanta$0
New York City$0
Los Angeles$0
Austin$0
Wellington$0
Madrid$0
Seoul$0
Warsaw$0
Chengdu$0
Jeddah$0
Shanghai$0
Hong Kong$0
Helsinki$0
Kuala Lumpur$0
Cape Town$0
Amsterdam$0
Miami$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.3
Events covered
647

Moderate coverage

<=1
286 brackets
<=2
421 brackets
<=3
532 brackets
<=4
589 brackets
<=5
618 brackets
<=8
641 brackets
>8
6 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/31/2025, 8:57:41 AM2 trades$14,9251 min
3/26/2026, 11:15:07 AM1 trades$20 min
3/26/2026, 11:28:17 AM1 trades$10 min
3/31/2026, 2:00:11 AM3 trades$40 min
3/31/2026, 2:07:07 AM314 trades$2,10824 min
4/2/2026, 8:32:15 PM1 trades$00 min
4/6/2026, 8:39:57 PM1 trades$2,7880 min
4/6/2026, 8:52:15 PM1 trades$2,7880 min
4/7/2026, 5:19:37 PM1 trades$00 min
4/8/2026, 5:53:55 PM1 trades$00 min
4/10/2026, 1:21:27 PM1 trades$00 min
4/11/2026, 8:56:19 AM1 trades$00 min
4/12/2026, 2:35:07 PM1 trades$00 min
4/13/2026, 4:46:01 PM1 trades$00 min
4/14/2026, 8:17:55 AM1 trades$00 min
4/25/2026, 3:52:24 PM1 trades$00 min
5/2/2026, 8:42:12 PM1 trades$00 min
5/3/2026, 12:29:26 PM1 trades$00 min
5/6/2026, 7:11:45 PM1 trades$00 min
5/8/2026, 9:43:16 AM1 trades$00 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
06-24
10-19
01-24
04-17
05-29
06-14
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
14.1% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
2.2% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.3 br/event