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@Petty-Attempt

#434,20241

0xa648f34c316e7f71814b7c77fd34ab3c43c87655

609d· 268 markets · 282 tradesVol: $1,1322026-06-26T20:50
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

41
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 41%6/20
Profit Factor 1.10x4/15
Sharpe 0.1312/15
Sortino 0.1982/10
EV $+0.1286/10
HHI 7010/10
Profit Days 52%6/10
DD/Peak 45%5/10

Summary

Petty-Attempt is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 282 trades across 268 markets over 156 days. Their net profit stands at $14.61 from a total trading volume of $1,132, placing them at rank #434,202 on the global PnL leaderboard. The trader maintains an average Smart Score of 41/100 and a low portfolio value of $3.33, reflecting modest overall financial impact within the platform.

This trader predominantly focuses on weather markets, which account for 94% of their activity, showing a clear niche preference. Petty-Attempt employs a contrarian and patient style, indicated by a high win rate of 76.2% and a profit factor of 4.15, alongside a very low sell percentage of 4%. Their Sharpe ratio is low at 0.13, suggesting limited risk-adjusted returns, and their trading is manual rather than bot-driven, with a Bot Score of 15/100. The equity trend is currently downward, implying recent challenges in maintaining gains.

Petty-Attempt’s strengths include consistent profitability and a disciplined approach to holding positions, as suggested by the “Diamond Hands” badge and no recorded drawdown duration. However, the declining equity trend and low portfolio value highlight potential risks in scaling or adapting their strategy. Their contrarian style may also expose them to volatility in unpredictable market conditions, which could impact long-term sustainability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+15
Contrarian
70% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
4% sell
Weather Pro
94% weather
Win Streak
65 wins in a row

Categories

6
🌤️ WEATHER#191,186$-1Vol: $947
🏛️ POLITICS#238,987$3Vol: $89
💻 TECH#17,967$9Vol: $53
💰 FINANCE#81,753$4Vol: $40
CRYPTO#398,852$1Vol: $2
🎭 CULTURE#516,268$-1Vol: $2

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$15
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,132
Total Redeem
$270
Portfolio
$3
Predictions
268
total markets
Trades
271B / 11S
Daily Volume
$2
Account Age
609d
since Nov 13, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-1
Vol: $0
Month
$-2
Vol: $0
All Time
$15
Vol: $1,132

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
41%
107W / 153L events
Realized PnL
$137
Win Rate
76%
109W / 34L
Profit Factor
4.15x
Avg Win
$2
Avg Loss
$-1

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $29 (21.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?$11
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on April 27?$10
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$9
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F $5
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2$5
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on April 15?$5
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 29?$4
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April $4
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C or higher on $4
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 28?$3

Top Losers

Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?$-10
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?$-2
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F $-2
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$-1
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 13?$-1
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026$-1
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 20?$-1
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April $-1
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on April 22?$-1
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 17?$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.131
Sortino
0.198
HHI
70
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.128
Kelly %
57.4%
Half-Kelly
28.7%
Top-1 market
3.5%
Top-5 markets
13.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.1
Moderate
Markets / Day
2.0
Active Hours
16/24
Extended
Peak Hour
2:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.3h
between trades
Night Trading
50%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.94
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.0

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 220s — typical for humanSize CV 0.95 — diverse, typical for human50% at night — bot never sleeps16/24 hours — normal hoursSession CV 0.77 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 2:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1
Single entry
<=1
265 entries
<=2
268 entries
<=5
268 entries
<=10
268 entries
<=20
268 entries
<=50
268 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)12.5%
Mid (20-55c)67.5%
High (>55c)19.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 69.1%

Other$20
Jeddah$13
Istanbul$10
Karachi$8
Lagos$7
Moscow$7
Sao Paulo$7
London$6
Tel Aviv$5
Chengdu$4
New York City$4
Panama City$4
Busan$4
Wuhan$3
Chongqing$3
Madrid$3
Warsaw$3
Helsinki$3

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
260

Single bracket

<=1
253 brackets
<=2
259 brackets
<=3
260 brackets
<=4
260 brackets
<=5
260 brackets
<=8
260 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/12/2026, 9:50:00 AM1 trades$100 min
2/23/2026, 12:33:48 PM1 trades$100 min
3/3/2026, 9:37:37 AM1 trades$110 min
4/10/2026, 4:39:35 AM2 trades$110 min
4/10/2026, 4:50:43 AM1 trades$50 min
4/10/2026, 4:58:23 AM1 trades$40 min
4/13/2026, 3:33:23 AM2 trades$21 min
4/13/2026, 7:42:35 AM1 trades$10 min
4/13/2026, 8:05:01 AM1 trades$10 min
4/13/2026, 8:14:41 AM1 trades$20 min
4/14/2026, 3:34:33 AM1 trades$10 min
4/14/2026, 3:46:45 AM2 trades$20 min
4/14/2026, 4:58:25 AM1 trades$10 min
4/15/2026, 4:19:36 AM2 trades$20 min
4/15/2026, 4:26:10 AM2 trades$24 min
4/15/2026, 4:56:56 AM3 trades$32 min
4/16/2026, 4:46:12 AM3 trades$38 min
4/16/2026, 5:01:52 AM2 trades$24 min
4/16/2026, 7:05:48 AM1 trades$10 min
4/17/2026, 3:44:18 AM1 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
04-10
04-15
04-20
04-23
04-26
04-29
06-08

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
94% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
3.9% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event