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@Physical-Ottoman

#210,31574

0x9897145fd8d6b033164593fa8d885fa2afa56b8e

68d· 1468 markets · 3682 tradesVol: $790,6942026-07-06T08:29
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

74
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 38%4/20
Profit Factor 3.96x15/15
Sharpe 0.3797/15
Sortino 1.53110/10
EV $+2.94910/10
HHI 18110/10
Profit Days 61%8/10
DD/Peak 8%10/10

Summary

Physical-Ottoman is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 3,682 trades executed over 57 days and a ranking of #210315 on the global PnL leaderboard. Despite a relatively low net PnL of $123.06, the trader has maintained a very good Smart Score of 74 out of 100. Their total trading volume is substantial at $790,694, indicating frequent engagement across a wide range of markets. However, their portfolio value currently stands at zero, and their equity trend is declining.

The trading strategy of Physical-Ottoman appears to be automated, as reflected in their Bot Score of 75 and badges such as "Bot" and "DCA Master." They favor a contrarian style with a high win rate of 95.6% and a profit factor exceeding 100, suggesting highly efficient trades with minimal losses. The trader participates in diverse markets, having traded 559 unique markets, but avoids weather-related markets entirely. Their risk profile is relatively low with a sell percentage of only 9% and no recorded drawdown duration, indicating disciplined risk management and a tendency to hold positions.

Physical-Ottoman’s key strengths lie in their consistency and contrarian approach, backed by automated execution that likely reduces emotional bias. The very high win rate and profit factor demonstrate strong trade selection skills. However, the declining equity trend and zero portfolio value raise concerns about sustainability and capital deployment. Additionally, the low Sharpe ratio of 0.38 suggests limited risk-adjusted returns, meaning that despite frequent wins, the overall growth may be constrained or volatile in the long term.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

10
Profitable
PnL $+123
Contrarian
85% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
9% sell
DCA Master
avg 6.0 entries/market
Bot
Score 75/100
Win Streak
63 wins in a row
Whale
$135,938
Consistent
20/33 days
High Roller
$2,385/day
Cool Head
DD 8%

Categories

2
CRYPTO#1,586,467$-1,481Vol: $698,552
SPORTS#1,789,484$-3,059Vol: $48,862

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$123
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$790,694
Total Redeem
$94,441
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1468
total markets
Trades
3366B / 316S
Daily Volume
$2,385
Account Age
68d
since May 5, 2026

Periods

#2
Month
$-7,877
Vol: $10,031
All Time
$123
Vol: $790,694

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
38%
248W / 406L events
Realized PnL
$139,446
Win Rate
96%
65W / 3L
Profit Factor
107.34x
Avg Win
$725
Avg Loss
$-146

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $15,975 (34.2% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$5,766
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$5,228
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET$4,981
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET$3,804
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET$3,343
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner$2,925
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$2,721
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?$1,669
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET$1,368
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$1,159

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$-231
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$-189
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$-20

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.379
Sortino
1.531
HHI
181
Diversified
EV per $1
$2.949
Kelly %
93.4%
Half-Kelly
46.7%
Top-1 market
5.7%
Top-5 markets
19.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
89.5
Very active
Markets / Day
13.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
4:00 UTC
Median Gap
3s
between trades
Avg Gap
10.9m
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.16
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.6

Bot Detection

#6
75
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
54% < 5s — fast clicker/botSize CV 3.16 — diverse, typical for human25% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.68 — human randomness90 trades/day — mass trading14 markets/day — mass coverage657 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 4:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
6
Active DCA
<=1
181 entries
<=2
230 entries
<=5
369 entries
<=10
464 entries
<=20
530 entries
<=50
556 entries
>50
3 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.5%
Mid (20-55c)88.7%
High (>55c)10.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 34.4%

Other$46,704

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
559

Single bracket

<=1
559 brackets
<=2
559 brackets
<=3
559 brackets
<=4
559 brackets
<=5
559 brackets
<=8
559 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/20/2026, 11:09:28 PM2 trades$100 min
5/21/2026, 1:32:37 AM5 trades$252 min
5/21/2026, 4:03:13 AM2 trades$293 min
5/21/2026, 4:14:56 AM6 trades$295 min
5/21/2026, 6:08:52 AM4 trades$200 min
5/21/2026, 6:52:24 AM3 trades$180 min
5/21/2026, 7:03:01 AM1 trades$190 min
5/21/2026, 7:08:57 AM4 trades$200 min
5/21/2026, 10:03:01 AM6 trades$191 min
5/21/2026, 10:38:50 AM7 trades$160 min
5/31/2026, 12:19:08 PM1 trades$480 min
5/31/2026, 12:34:32 PM10 trades$490 min
5/31/2026, 1:04:01 PM6 trades$490 min
5/31/2026, 1:09:22 PM4 trades$590 min
5/31/2026, 2:59:02 PM3 trades$521 min
5/31/2026, 4:47:18 PM3 trades$490 min
5/31/2026, 5:04:53 PM9 trades$985 min
5/31/2026, 7:15:03 PM8 trades$490 min
6/1/2026, 12:50:04 AM7 trades$470 min
6/1/2026, 2:34:57 AM1 trades$490 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-05
05-19
05-31
06-05
06-10
06-22
06-29

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
8.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event