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@Poligarch

#1,09895

0xb40e89677d59665d5188541ad860450a6e2a7cc9

379d· 34030 markets · 17362 tradesVol: $22,952,5922026-07-01T17:17
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

95
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 65%18/20
Profit Factor 22.96x15/15
Sharpe 0.66412/15
Sortino 107.33810/10
EV $+5.01910/10
HHI 59610/10
Profit Days 88%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Poligarch is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #1098 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $170,554.30. Over 427 days, they have executed 17,362 trades across 624 markets, accumulating a total trading volume of nearly $23 million. With a Smart Score of 95/100, Poligarch is recognized as an elite trader, maintaining a portfolio value of approximately $104,700 and demonstrating consistent engagement in the platform.

Poligarch’s trading strategy shows a strong preference for weather markets, which make up 84% of their activity. Their style is characterized by a high win rate of 60%, yet their profit factor is unusually low at 0.01, suggesting a conservative or risk-averse approach with many small wins. Poligarch never sells positions, indicating a diamond hands mentality and reliance on dollar-cost averaging, as reflected in their badges. Their trades are automated to some extent, supported by a bot score of 70/100, and they tend to maintain a stable equity trend without significant drawdowns.

The key strengths of Poligarch include a large number of trades, consistent profitability, and a disciplined contrarian style that leverages automation. However, the low profit factor and flat equity trend may imply limited upside or potential underperformance in volatile conditions. Despite minimal drawdown duration, Poligarch’s zero sell percentage could expose them to risks during market downturns, which traders on Polymarket should monitor closely.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

12
Sniper
Win Rate 65%
Profitable
PnL $+170,554
Contrarian
52% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
DCA Master
avg 27.7 entries/market
Weather Pro
84% weather
Bot
Score 70/100
Hedger
avg 2.6 brackets/event
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
Whale
$288,153
Consistent
92/105 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
🌤️ WEATHER#7$76,683Vol: $11,843,947
🏛️ POLITICS#845$59,845Vol: $5,941,658
🎭 CULTURE#856$9,234Vol: $1,834,371
💰 FINANCE#1,274$3,883Vol: $1,085,059
📢 MENTIONS#192$9,676Vol: $815,315
SPORTS#1,690,930$-375Vol: $714,748
📈 ECONOMICS#2,078$1,544Vol: $161,357
💻 TECH#834$1,874Vol: $123,329
CRYPTO#21,490$1,779Vol: $61,311

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$170,554
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$22,952,592
Total Redeem
$13,578
Portfolio
$104,716
Predictions
34030
total markets
Trades
17304B / 58S
Daily Volume
$675
Account Age
379d
since Jun 20, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$679
Vol: $117,128
Week
$1,398
Vol: $494,626
Month
$679
Vol: $117,128
All Time
$170,554
Vol: $22,952,592

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
77%
294W / 89L events
Realized PnL
$519,674
Win Rate
60%
54W / 36L
Profit Factor
0.01x
Avg Win
$17
Avg Loss
$-1,811

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 1?$112
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 1?$100
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 1?$82
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 1?$71
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 1?$69
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 1?$59
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 1?$57
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 1?$56
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 1?$42
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 1?$26

Top Losers

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential $-23,811
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect$-17,644
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$-17,054
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$-4,032
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 1?$-740
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?$-476
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 1?$-370
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 1?$-348
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 1?$-333
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$-67

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.664
Sortino
107.338
HHI
596
Moderate
EV per $1
$5.019
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
19%
Top-5 markets
46.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
103.1
Very active
Markets / Day
3.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
17s
between trades
Avg Gap
7.8m
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
9.88
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.1

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 17s — typical for humanSize CV 9.88 — diverse, typical for human25% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.07 — human randomness103 trades/day — automation1127 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
27.7
Heavy DCA
<=1
89 entries
<=2
127 entries
<=5
210 entries
<=10
311 entries
<=20
401 entries
<=50
537 entries
>50
87 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)20.6%
Mid (20-55c)36.1%
High (>55c)43.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 38%

Guangzhou$170
Wuhan$126
Qingdao$116
Shenzhen$100
Wellington$59
Beijing$36
Chengdu$27
Singapore$26
Kuala Lumpur$15
Munich$0
Seattle$0
Buenos Aires$0
Istanbul$0
Dallas$0
Hong Kong$0
Amsterdam$0
Houston$0
Cape Town$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.6
Events covered
236

Moderate coverage

<=1
95 brackets
<=2
132 brackets
<=3
164 brackets
<=4
190 brackets
<=5
217 brackets
<=8
236 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/14/2026, 8:03:30 AM2 trades$102 min
1/14/2026, 8:32:22 PM1 trades$20 min
1/14/2026, 9:50:44 PM1 trades$160 min
1/14/2026, 10:43:38 PM1 trades$190 min
1/15/2026, 1:31:04 AM2 trades$620 min
1/15/2026, 8:56:30 AM1 trades$550 min
1/15/2026, 3:24:04 PM1 trades$350 min
1/15/2026, 3:38:22 PM2 trades$74 min
1/15/2026, 4:19:32 PM1 trades$70 min
1/15/2026, 10:09:52 PM1 trades$170 min
1/15/2026, 11:10:36 PM2 trades$1041 min
1/16/2026, 12:21:22 AM1 trades$100 min
1/16/2026, 3:31:52 AM1 trades$170 min
1/16/2026, 7:23:52 AM1 trades$680 min
1/16/2026, 5:08:28 PM1 trades$160 min
1/17/2026, 4:03:18 AM1 trades$130 min
2/2/2026, 10:52:58 AM1 trades$40 min
2/2/2026, 3:35:34 PM1 trades$30 min
2/3/2026, 7:49:44 AM1 trades$90 min
2/15/2026, 1:49:59 PM1 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
02-27
04-07
05-11
06-01
06-22
07-05
12-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
83.8% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 27.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.6 br/event