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PollsR4Dummies

@PollsR4Dummies

#76077

0x008bf350637ce1ea308b3622a0d44116f9f3b476

646d· 37 markets · 3022 tradesVol: $1,924,0472026-06-17T10:38
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

77
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 58%14/20
Profit Factor 3.54x15/15
Sharpe 0.2404/15
Sortino 0.7788/10
EV $+5.79910/10
HHI 8038/10
Profit Days 63%8/10
DD/Peak 24%9/10

Summary

PollsR4Dummies is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #760 globally with a net PnL of $234,937.65. Over 538 days, they executed 3,022 trades across 37 markets, resulting in a total volume of nearly $1.9 million. Despite a win rate below 50% at 46.9%, their profit factor of 4.67 indicates strong profitability from winning trades. Their portfolio currently holds $21,992.40, and their smart score of 77 suggests solid overall trading skills.

This trader favors a contrarian and lottery-style approach, as indicated by badges like "Lottery Player" and "Contrarian." They rarely sell positions, with just 3% sell percentage, implying a long-hold or diamond hands strategy. PollsR4Dummies appears to employ dollar-cost averaging and maintains low max drawdown durations, signaling risk-conscious timing. However, their Sharpe ratio of 0.24 suggests modest risk-adjusted returns, and an observed downward equity trend points to recent portfolio declines.

PollsR4Dummies’ key strengths include a high profit factor and consistent execution over a long period. Their contrarian style may capture undervalued opportunities on Polymarket, but the declining equity trend and low Sharpe ratio highlight potential risks in volatility management. As a likely human trader with fast interface use, they demonstrate adaptability but may face challenges sustaining upward momentum without adjusting strategy.

Badges

8
Profitable
PnL $+234,938
Lottery Player
50% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
95% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
3% sell
DCA Master
avg 79.2 entries/market
Whale
$234,215
Consistent
12/19 days
Cool Head
DD 24%

Categories

6
🏛️ POLITICS#1,645$27,831Vol: $1,279,772
🎭 CULTURE#16$206,250Vol: $575,041
📈 ECONOMICS#643,479$-138Vol: $52,841
SPORTS#36,133$895Vol: $11,898
📢 MENTIONS#4,915$134Vol: $3,879
CRYPTO#1,274,013$-35Vol: $616

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$234,938
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,924,047
Total Redeem
$311,212
Portfolio
$21,992
Predictions
37
total markets
Trades
2930B / 92S
Daily Volume
$435
Account Age
646d
since Sep 29, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$35
Vol: $0
Week
$-173
Vol: $0
Month
$-3,529
Vol: $0
All Time
$234,938
Vol: $1,924,047

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
64%
16W / 9L events
Realized PnL
$253,499
Win Rate
47%
15W / 17L
Profit Factor
4.67x
Avg Win
$23,957
Avg Loss
$-4,531

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $332,459 (117.8% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?$285,223
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104$34,489
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election?$12,748
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%?$10,040
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?$4,079
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$3,375
Trump nominates Tulsi Gabbard to Cabinet?$2,086
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?$1,774
Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?$1,689
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?$1,425

Top Losers

Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?$-42,681
Will Biden finish his term?$-7,708
Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election?$-5,297
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$-5,000
Will a Democrat win North Carolina Presidential Election?$-3,822
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64$-3,408
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?$-2,956
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?$-2,208
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154$-1,727
Will Trump say "disgrace" 2 or more times during Pennsylvania ral$-925

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.240
Sortino
0.778
HHI
803
Moderate
EV per $1
$5.799
Kelly %
36.6%
Half-Kelly
18.3%
Top-1 market
18.2%
Top-5 markets
53.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
5.6
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
27.1m
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.46
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.3

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 78s — typical for humanSize CV 6.46 — diverse, typical for human15% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.03 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
79.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
11 entries
<=2
12 entries
<=5
18 entries
<=10
22 entries
<=20
25 entries
<=50
30 entries
>50
7 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)49.7%
Mid (20-55c)45.5%
High (>55c)4.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 76.3%

Other$282,326
New York City$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
25

Single bracket

<=1
17 brackets
<=2
22 brackets
<=3
24 brackets
<=4
25 brackets
<=5
25 brackets
<=8
25 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/29/2024, 8:59:29 PM1 trades$2000 min
9/29/2024, 10:17:50 PM1 trades$1,2000 min
9/30/2024, 12:15:40 AM1 trades$90 min
9/30/2024, 10:36:45 AM4 trades$20,3006 min
9/30/2024, 11:21:11 AM1 trades$6500 min
9/30/2024, 1:33:15 PM1 trades$1,2000 min
9/30/2024, 7:05:29 PM1 trades$5000 min
10/1/2024, 10:40:32 AM1 trades$8000 min
10/1/2024, 2:13:58 PM1 trades$5000 min
10/2/2024, 1:28:02 PM1 trades$4000 min
10/2/2024, 9:23:17 PM1 trades$450 min
10/3/2024, 10:21:35 AM1 trades$8,0000 min
10/3/2024, 10:27:53 AM1 trades$8,0000 min
10/3/2024, 10:53:25 AM1 trades$1,0000 min
10/3/2024, 2:51:23 PM1 trades$100 min
10/3/2024, 3:52:29 PM2 trades$2,2501 min
10/3/2024, 4:18:05 PM2 trades$1,7670 min
10/3/2024, 4:44:08 PM1 trades$100 min
10/3/2024, 5:07:24 PM3 trades$8764 min
10/3/2024, 5:37:18 PM1 trades$100 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-01
11-04
12-30
02-09
04-29
11-04
11-07

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 79.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event