Polydata

@Posh-Napkin

#30,84061

0xa29bce793f9a94bfd7a8cac1fd9c0792f847a0b8

906d· 176 markets · 346 tradesVol: $166,734 @Bublik01012026-07-02T19:45
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

61
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 57%14/20
Profit Factor 1.65x11/15
Sharpe 0.2014/15
Sortino 0.2372/10
EV $+0.0613/10
HHI 15210/10
Profit Days 63%8/10
DD/Peak 25%9/10

Summary

Posh-Napkin is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with 346 trades spread across 175 markets over 1082 days. Ranked #30840 globally by net PnL, Posh-Napkin has generated a net profit of $3,711.44 from a total trading volume of $166,734. Their smart score of 61/100 indicates above-average trading skill, supported by a profit factor of 1.78 and a win rate of 57.7%. Despite a relatively low Sharpe ratio of 0.20, the trader maintains an upward equity trend and zero max drawdown duration, highlighting consistent performance without prolonged losses.

Posh-Napkin favors a diverse range of markets but shows no exposure to weather markets and engages in manual trading, as reflected by a low bot score of 5/100. Their strategy appears balanced with a 40% sell rate, suggesting a mix of holding and profit-taking. The trading style is consistent and measured, evidenced by badges such as “Consistent” and “Cool Head,” and a solid win streak. Timing patterns show moderate activity over a long period rather than frequent high-risk trades, aligning with a medium-risk profile.

The key strengths of Posh-Napkin lie in their steady profitability, disciplined trade execution, and ability to sustain gains over time on Polymarket. However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio and moderate rank indicate limited risk-adjusted returns and room for improvement in maximizing returns per unit of risk. Additionally, the absence of portfolio value suggests profits may be withdrawn or not reinvested, which could impact long-term growth potential. Overall, Posh-Napkin demonstrates reliable but conservative trading performance.

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+3,711
Win Streak
13 wins in a row
Whale
$67,472
Consistent
67/107 days
Cool Head
DD 25%

Categories

7
SPORTS#14,386$2,811Vol: $99,192
CRYPTO#19,872$2,001Vol: $42,705
🏛️ POLITICS#1,557,119$-330Vol: $6,653
💻 TECH#230,751$-39Vol: $6,222
💰 FINANCE#578,180$-17Vol: $3,561
🎭 CULTURE#745,825$-45Vol: $519
📈 ECONOMICS#617,895$-23Vol: $110

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$3,711
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$166,734
Total Redeem
$19,274
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
176
total markets
Trades
207B / 139S
Daily Volume
$62
Account Age
906d
since Jan 10, 2024

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
60%
91W / 60L events
Realized PnL
$3,713
Win Rate
58%
101W / 74L
Profit Factor
1.78x
Avg Win
$94
Avg Loss
$-72

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,810 (43.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?$731
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?$709
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11?$369
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?$366
Will Usyk beat Fury?$331
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-28?$266
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?$258
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?$247
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?$233
Will the match be a draw?$211

Top Losers

Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5$-1,000
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season$-377
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18?$-247
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 15-21?$-204
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$-187
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 8-14?$-175
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14?$-150
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17?$-145
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24?$-145
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?$-105

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.201
Sortino
0.237
HHI
152
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.061
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3%
Top-5 markets
14.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.5h
between trades
Avg Gap
5.0h
between trades
Night Trading
4%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.38
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

4 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 5222s — typical for humanSize CV 1.38 — diverse, typical for human4% at night — normal sleep pattern21/24 hours — extended day

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.2
Single entry
<=1
147 entries
<=2
170 entries
<=5
174 entries
<=10
174 entries
<=20
174 entries
<=50
174 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)13%
Mid (20-55c)32.9%
High (>55c)54.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 77.3%

Other$3,659
Madrid$329
Miami$153

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
150

Single bracket

<=1
136 brackets
<=2
145 brackets
<=3
147 brackets
<=4
148 brackets
<=5
149 brackets
<=8
150 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/10/2024, 9:45:12 AM1 trades$120 min
6/20/2024, 3:10:02 PM1 trades$500 min
6/20/2024, 6:02:15 PM1 trades$1000 min
6/21/2024, 6:36:09 PM2 trades$1990 min
6/29/2024, 4:02:11 PM1 trades$660 min
7/5/2024, 3:54:09 PM1 trades$1390 min
7/6/2024, 1:57:33 PM4 trades$1472 min
7/14/2024, 12:33:33 PM1 trades$430 min
7/14/2024, 4:16:41 PM1 trades$2000 min
8/14/2024, 8:00:55 PM1 trades$2000 min
9/29/2024, 5:20:52 PM1 trades$1000 min
10/2/2024, 5:06:14 PM1 trades$1000 min
10/12/2024, 5:58:57 PM1 trades$1990 min
10/12/2024, 8:50:05 PM1 trades$2970 min
10/19/2024, 2:09:39 PM1 trades$1000 min
10/20/2024, 2:51:50 PM1 trades$700 min
10/22/2024, 6:00:44 PM1 trades$2000 min
11/5/2024, 5:39:03 PM1 trades$1010 min
12/21/2024, 8:00:12 PM4 trades$9201 min
12/21/2024, 8:46:51 PM1 trades$1000 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
01-26
01-12
02-13
03-17
04-16
06-13

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
40.2% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event