Polydata

@Posh-Trainer

#2,639,90310

0x8233768a4f1379ed370987d4eff2130dfd4bdf36

714d· 174 markets · 545 tradesVol: $163,466 @zeroxluther2026-05-22T12:12
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

10
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 26%0/20
Profit Factor 0.67x0/15
HHI 43610/10
Profit Days 23%0/10
DD/Peak 655%0/10

Summary

Posh-Trainer is a relatively inactive and inexperienced trader on Polymarket with a global PnL rank of #2,639,903. Over 458 days, they have executed 545 trades across 174 markets, accumulating $163,466 in total volume. Despite this activity, their net PnL stands at -$1,235.65, indicating consistent losses. Their portfolio value currently is $370.31, and their low Smart Score of 10/100 confirms a beginner status.

Posh-Trainer tends to trade a diverse range of markets but shows a slight preference for less conventional options, such as weather markets, which comprise only 2% of their trades. Their win rate is 33.8%, with a profit factor of 2.04, suggesting that while they win less frequently, profitable trades tend to outweigh losses. The trader’s Sharpe ratio of -0.22 and downward equity trend point to a negative risk-adjusted return, implying that losses have outweighed gains over time. Posh-Trainer appears to practice manual trading with some contrarian and lottery-player tendencies, indicating a higher risk appetite and potentially impulsive timing.

The strengths of Posh-Trainer include a willingness to engage in varied markets and the ability to occasionally secure profitable trades despite a low win rate. However, their overall negative PnL, declining equity, and beginner status highlight significant risks. The low Smart and Bot scores suggest limited strategic sophistication, and the high proportion of losing trades could lead to sustained losses. Caution is warranted in interpreting their performance as a reliable indicator of future success on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

3
Lottery Player
52% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
79% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
8 wins in a row

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#1,523,579$-847Vol: $55,953
🎭 CULTURE#742,022$-73Vol: $37,682
SPORTS#1,585,199$-491Vol: $29,785
💰 FINANCE#7,628$372Vol: $24,960
CRYPTO#1,307,526$-71Vol: $9,088
📈 ECONOMICS#465,125$-1Vol: $3,404
📢 MENTIONS#152,746$-93Vol: $1,409
🌤️ WEATHER#241,701$-30Vol: $1,115

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,236
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$163,466
Total Redeem
$163
Portfolio
$370
Predictions
174
total markets
Trades
379B / 166S
Daily Volume
$45
Account Age
714d
since Jun 7, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$9
Vol: $65
Week
$135
Vol: $5,685
Month
$-911
Vol: $58,604
All Time
$-1,236
Vol: $163,466

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
32%
36W / 78L events
Realized PnL
$-575
Win Rate
34%
51W / 98L
Profit Factor
2.04x
Avg Win
$92
Avg Loss
$-23

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,299 (96.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$1,290
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026?$649
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, $360
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?$296
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 8?$217
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?$211
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$177
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 5 to M$161
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026?$136
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs$101

Top Losers

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?$-549
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?$-222
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?$-160
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 202$-130
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?$-119
Will Trump say "Too Late" during the 2026 State of the Union addr$-100
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$-85
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 1?$-72
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alph$-63
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$-56

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.223
Sortino
-0.285
HHI
436
Diversified
EV per $1
$-1.199
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
10.4%
Top-5 markets
38.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.8
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.9h
between trades
Night Trading
1%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.04
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.0

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 84s — typical for humanSize CV 3.05 — diverse, typical for human1% at night — normal sleep pattern20/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.96 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.2
Moderate DCA
<=1
112 entries
<=2
143 entries
<=5
158 entries
<=10
170 entries
<=20
173 entries
<=50
174 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)52.2%
Mid (20-55c)28.8%
High (>55c)19%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 66.6%

Other$2,380
Jeddah$3
Madrid$2
Ankara$1
New York City$0
Denver$0
Seoul$-3

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
117

Single bracket

<=1
97 brackets
<=2
106 brackets
<=3
111 brackets
<=4
113 brackets
<=5
115 brackets
<=8
115 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/9/2025, 2:24:39 PM1 trades$30 min
10/10/2025, 9:45:22 AM1 trades$50 min
10/14/2025, 3:07:55 PM1 trades$10 min
10/27/2025, 8:27:39 AM7 trades$267 min
10/27/2025, 8:25:15 PM1 trades$100 min
10/28/2025, 12:34:59 PM1 trades$700 min
10/28/2025, 12:42:41 PM2 trades$73 min
10/28/2025, 12:55:19 PM1 trades$50 min
10/28/2025, 5:27:43 PM1 trades$50 min
10/29/2025, 4:38:57 PM2 trades$151 min
10/29/2025, 7:15:59 PM2 trades$20 min
10/29/2025, 7:58:53 PM1 trades$150 min
10/30/2025, 6:08:15 AM1 trades$50 min
11/1/2025, 10:14:18 AM3 trades$251 min
11/3/2025, 7:07:37 PM1 trades$200 min
11/7/2025, 6:57:27 AM1 trades$100 min
11/11/2025, 12:36:01 PM1 trades$190 min
11/11/2025, 5:29:17 PM1 trades$50 min
11/11/2025, 5:34:45 PM1 trades$150 min
11/20/2025, 7:03:59 PM2 trades$391 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
12-07
01-28
04-12
05-05
05-22
05-26
01-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
2.3% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
30.5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event