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@Posh-Trainer

#2,837,27810

0x8233768a4f1379ed370987d4eff2130dfd4bdf36

761d· 212 markets · 651 tradesVol: $265,679 @zeroxluther2026-06-20T19:19
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

10
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 28%0/20
Profit Factor 0.57x0/15
HHI 39010/10
Profit Days 28%0/10
DD/Peak 1222%0/10

Summary

Posh-Trainer is a relatively low-ranked trader on Polymarket, positioned at #2,837,278 on the global profit and loss leaderboard. Over 458 days, they have executed 651 trades across 212 markets, generating a total volume of $265,679. Despite this activity, Posh-Trainer has a negative net PnL of -$2,467.60 and a modest portfolio value of $29.18. Their smart score of 10/100 and a low bot score confirm that they are a beginner and manual trader.

The trading style of Posh-Trainer appears to lean toward a contrarian and lottery-player approach, as indicated by their top badges and a 33.8% win rate. They show a willingness to take risks, reflected in a profit factor of 1.27, but their negative Sharpe ratio (-0.15) suggests inconsistent returns relative to risk. They trade across a diverse set of markets including a small exposure to weather markets (2%), and their sell percentage is 32%, implying some patience in holding positions rather than frequent flipping.

Posh-Trainer’s key strength lies in their upward equity trend, indicating some growth potential despite current losses. However, the low win rate and negative net PnL raise concerns about the sustainability of their strategy. Their beginner status and relatively poor risk-adjusted performance suggest that significant improvements would be needed to become consistently profitable on Polymarket.

Badges

3
Lottery Player
48% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
74% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
5 wins in a row

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#1,521,467$-179Vol: $66,943
SPORTS#1,587,040$-146Vol: $51,885
CRYPTO#1,565,980$-1,879Vol: $41,018
🎭 CULTURE#705,031$-18Vol: $39,938
💰 FINANCE#7,586$412Vol: $25,570
📈 ECONOMICS#94,535$1Vol: $6,654
📢 MENTIONS#155,088$-93Vol: $1,409
🌤️ WEATHER#255,954$-31Vol: $1,315
💻 TECH#222,302$-27Vol: $1,194

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-2,468
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$265,679
Total Redeem
$804
Portfolio
$29
Predictions
212
total markets
Trades
446B / 205S
Daily Volume
$62
Account Age
761d
since Jun 7, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $278
Week
$-21
Vol: $3,744
Month
$-1,866
Vol: $41,485
All Time
$-2,468
Vol: $265,679

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
33%
46W / 95L events
Realized PnL
$-2,311
Win Rate
34%
68W / 131L
Profit Factor
1.27x
Avg Win
$85
Avg Loss
$-35

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,611 (211.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$1,602
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026?$649
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, $360
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$347
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?$296
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?$244
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 8?$217
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?$211
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$177
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 5 to M$161

Top Losers

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$-1,781
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?$-549
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?$-222
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?$-160
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs MVK Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Season$-159
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 202$-130
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?$-119
Will Trump say "Too Late" during the 2026 State of the Union addr$-100
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$-85
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 1?$-72

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.147
Sortino
-0.133
HHI
390
Diversified
EV per $1
$-12.221
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
8.6%
Top-5 markets
36.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.6
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.8
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.1h
between trades
Night Trading
2%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.11
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.0

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 104s — typical for humanSize CV 3.11 — diverse, typical for human2% at night — normal sleep pattern21/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.93 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.1
Moderate DCA
<=1
137 entries
<=2
173 entries
<=5
196 entries
<=10
208 entries
<=20
211 entries
<=50
212 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)47.5%
Mid (20-55c)29.1%
High (>55c)23.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 64.5%

Other$1,252
London$14
Jeddah$3
Madrid$2
Ankara$1
Denver$0
Seoul$-3
New York City$-34

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
144

Single bracket

<=1
117 brackets
<=2
130 brackets
<=3
137 brackets
<=4
140 brackets
<=5
142 brackets
<=8
142 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/9/2025, 2:24:39 PM1 trades$30 min
10/10/2025, 9:45:22 AM1 trades$50 min
10/14/2025, 3:07:55 PM1 trades$10 min
10/27/2025, 8:27:39 AM7 trades$267 min
10/27/2025, 8:25:15 PM1 trades$100 min
10/28/2025, 12:34:59 PM1 trades$700 min
10/28/2025, 12:42:41 PM2 trades$73 min
10/28/2025, 12:55:19 PM1 trades$50 min
10/28/2025, 5:27:43 PM1 trades$50 min
10/29/2025, 4:38:57 PM2 trades$151 min
10/29/2025, 7:15:59 PM2 trades$20 min
10/29/2025, 7:58:53 PM1 trades$150 min
10/30/2025, 6:08:15 AM1 trades$50 min
11/1/2025, 10:14:18 AM3 trades$251 min
11/3/2025, 7:07:37 PM1 trades$200 min
11/7/2025, 6:57:27 AM1 trades$100 min
11/11/2025, 12:36:01 PM1 trades$190 min
11/11/2025, 5:29:17 PM1 trades$50 min
11/11/2025, 5:34:45 PM1 trades$150 min
11/20/2025, 7:03:59 PM2 trades$391 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
12-31
03-27
05-01
05-30
06-17

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
2.4% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
31.5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event