Polydata

@Pricey-Certificate

#3,006,26231

0xfb0386d1c40a6820c5d580d9291464a2021646dc

631d· 647 markets · 1441 tradesVol: $156,5282026-07-24T00:15
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

31
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 52%11/20
Profit Factor 1.01x3/15
Sharpe 0.0040/15
Sortino 0.0030/10
EV $+0.0101/10
HHI 5610/10
Profit Days 58%7/10
DD/Peak 109%0/10

Summary

Pricey-Certificate is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 1,441 trades across 553 markets over 790 days. Despite a high win rate of 99.2%, Pricey-Certificate currently holds a net PnL of -$3,130.10 and ranks #3,006,262 globally, indicating challenges in translating wins into profits. The total trading volume of $156,528 reflects consistent engagement, but a portfolio value of zero suggests no current open positions.

The trader appears to favor a low-risk, high-frequency style, given the extremely high win rate and profit factor of 142.89. Pricey-Certificate’s minimal sell percentage (9%) and zero exposure to weather markets imply a preference for stable or predictable events. The short max drawdown duration and upward equity trend point to disciplined trade management, although the below-average Smart Score (31/100) and Bot Score (30/100) suggest possible inefficiencies or manual trading limitations.

Pricey-Certificate’s key strength lies in maintaining a near-perfect win rate and steady trading activity, supported by badges indicating persistence and winning streaks. However, the negative net PnL and low Sharpe ratio highlight potential issues with trade sizing or payout structures. The disparity between wins and overall profitability is a significant risk factor that may limit long-term success on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

2
Diamond Hands
9% sell
Win Streak
128 wins in a row

Categories

8
₿ CRYPTO#111,979$68Vol: $14,871
⚽ SPORTS#1,631,917$-71Vol: $10,399
🏛️ POLITICS#1,580,116$-389Vol: $6,975
💰 FINANCE#631,272$-134Vol: $5,219
🎭 CULTURE#657,088$-6Vol: $1,025
🌤️ WEATHER#283,396$-109Vol: $434
📈 ECONOMICS#610,788$-15Vol: $263
📢 MENTIONS#132,269$-14Vol: $40

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-3,130
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$156,528
Total Redeem
$41,984
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
647
total markets
Trades
1312B / 129S
Daily Volume
$63
Account Age
631d
since Oct 30, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$0
Vol: $0
Month
$-3,122
Vol: $40,169
All Time
$-3,130
Vol: $156,528

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
61%
204W / 133L events
Realized PnL
$19,864
Win Rate
99%
259W / 2L
Profit Factor
142.89x
Avg Win
$83
Avg Loss
$-75

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,101 (9.9% of PnL)

Top Winners

LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner$869
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner$661
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner$570
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)$504
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) AND Game Handicap: T1 (-$468
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance AND$461
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)$457
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs$443
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs$418
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: Tea$390

Top Losers

LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming (BO3)$-133
Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)$-17

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.004
Sortino
0.003
HHI
56
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.010
Kelly %
98.8%
Half-Kelly
49.4%
Top-1 market
3.5%
Top-5 markets
9.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
10:00 UTC
Median Gap
28.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.5h
between trades
Night Trading
20%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.64
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1707s — typical for humanSize CV 1.64 — diverse, typical for human20% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.01 — human randomness478 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 10:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.4
Moderate DCA
<=1
297 entries
<=2
396 entries
<=5
498 entries
<=10
537 entries
<=20
545 entries
<=50
547 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)7.5%
Mid (20-55c)52.2%
High (>55c)40.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 42.6%

Other$21,221
London$68

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
345

Single bracket

<=1
223 brackets
<=2
318 brackets
<=3
333 brackets
<=4
340 brackets
<=5
343 brackets
<=8
345 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/30/2024, 5:45:36 PM2 trades$801 min
6/3/2025, 2:57:54 AM1 trades$1540 min
6/24/2025, 4:33:57 AM1 trades$100 min
6/24/2025, 12:05:23 PM1 trades$50 min
6/24/2025, 1:10:11 PM1 trades$20 min
9/5/2025, 4:15:48 PM1 trades$1010 min
9/27/2025, 6:58:33 PM1 trades$30 min
10/10/2025, 4:04:13 AM1 trades$1140 min
10/22/2025, 4:28:17 AM1 trades$20 min
10/22/2025, 10:39:21 AM1 trades$100 min
10/22/2025, 10:54:51 AM1 trades$90 min
10/22/2025, 12:36:38 PM2 trades$773 min
10/23/2025, 1:16:59 PM1 trades$890 min
10/25/2025, 6:01:55 AM1 trades$480 min
10/25/2025, 7:36:03 AM2 trades$690 min
10/28/2025, 7:20:43 AM1 trades$500 min
10/29/2025, 6:01:23 AM1 trades$600 min
10/31/2025, 7:39:22 AM1 trades$200 min
11/1/2025, 8:30:06 AM1 trades$70 min
11/2/2025, 6:50:03 AM1 trades$700 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-02
01-20
02-22
04-13
05-14
06-15

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
9% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event