Polydata

@Pricey-Certificate

#2,696,67444

0xfb0386d1c40a6820c5d580d9291464a2021646dc

586d· 492 markets · 1018 tradesVol: $98,1052026-06-08T23:53
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

44
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 59%15/20
Profit Factor 1.12x4/15
Sharpe 0.0551/15
Sortino 0.0551/10
EV $+0.1186/10
HHI 6510/10
Profit Days 60%8/10
DD/Peak 112%0/10

Summary

Pricey-Certificate is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with 1,018 trades across 388 markets over 790 days. Despite a substantial total trading volume of $98,105, the trader holds a global PnL rank of #2,696,674 and has a net loss of $1,109.58. Their Smart Score of 44/100 suggests average overall trading skill, while a portfolio value of $700 indicates a relatively small position size.

The trader’s style appears conservative with a low sell percentage of 7%, indicating a buy-and-hold approach aligned with the Diamond Hands badge. Pricey-Certificate focuses on a diverse range of markets but avoids weather markets entirely. An impressive win rate of 98.6% combined with a high profit factor of 28.24 suggests strong trade selection, though the Sharpe Ratio of 0.05 points to low risk-adjusted returns. The stable max drawdown duration of zero days reflects effective risk containment. Their timing does not show aggressive short-term trading, favoring consistent, long-term equity growth.

Pricey-Certificate’s key strengths include a high win rate and consistent equity growth, supported by disciplined holding patterns. However, the significant net loss and low Sharpe Ratio raise concerns about the overall profitability and risk management effectiveness. The trader’s profile on Polymarket suggests reliability but limited upside potential, with potential risks stemming from small portfolio diversification and a slow growth trajectory.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

3
Diamond Hands
7% sell
Win Streak
98 wins in a row
Consistent
90/149 days

Categories

8
SPORTS#1,625,936$-508Vol: $68,978
CRYPTO#106,110$68Vol: $14,871
🏛️ POLITICS#1,538,035$-389Vol: $6,975
💰 FINANCE#603,643$-134Vol: $5,219
🎭 CULTURE#644,022$-6Vol: $1,025
🌤️ WEATHER#265,497$-109Vol: $434
📈 ECONOMICS#592,065$-15Vol: $263
📢 MENTIONS#127,893$-14Vol: $40

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,110
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$98,105
Total Redeem
$23,874
Portfolio
$700
Predictions
492
total markets
Trades
949B / 69S
Daily Volume
$36
Account Age
586d
since Oct 30, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$268
Vol: $200
Week
$268
Vol: $1,481
Month
$867
Vol: $5,210
All Time
$-1,110
Vol: $98,105

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
66%
197W / 103L events
Realized PnL
$12,676
Win Rate
99%
215W / 3L
Profit Factor
28.24x
Avg Win
$52
Avg Loss
$-131

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,206 (11.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs$443
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs$418
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?$345
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner$330
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)$319
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner$250
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5)$206
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner$195
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend$186
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In$172

Top Losers

LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs$-243
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming (BO3)$-133
Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)$-17

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.055
Sortino
0.054
HHI
65
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.117
Kelly %
97.4%
Half-Kelly
48.7%
Top-1 market
2.6%
Top-5 markets
10.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.7
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
10:00 UTC
Median Gap
37.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.8h
between trades
Night Trading
16%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.46
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.8

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 2254s — typical for humanSize CV 1.45 — diverse, typical for human16% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.02 — human randomness423 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 10:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.5
Moderate DCA
<=1
195 entries
<=2
277 entries
<=5
352 entries
<=10
379 entries
<=20
385 entries
<=50
387 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)4.5%
Mid (20-55c)49.7%
High (>55c)45.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 28.5%

Other$10,698

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
278

Single bracket

<=1
190 brackets
<=2
264 brackets
<=3
274 brackets
<=4
275 brackets
<=5
277 brackets
<=8
278 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/30/2024, 5:45:36 PM2 trades$801 min
6/3/2025, 2:57:54 AM1 trades$1540 min
6/24/2025, 4:33:57 AM1 trades$100 min
6/24/2025, 12:05:23 PM1 trades$50 min
6/24/2025, 1:10:11 PM1 trades$20 min
9/5/2025, 4:15:48 PM1 trades$1010 min
9/27/2025, 6:58:33 PM1 trades$30 min
10/10/2025, 4:04:13 AM1 trades$1140 min
10/22/2025, 4:28:17 AM1 trades$20 min
10/22/2025, 10:39:21 AM1 trades$100 min
10/22/2025, 10:54:51 AM1 trades$90 min
10/22/2025, 12:36:38 PM2 trades$773 min
10/23/2025, 1:16:59 PM1 trades$890 min
10/25/2025, 6:01:55 AM1 trades$480 min
10/25/2025, 7:36:03 AM2 trades$690 min
10/28/2025, 7:20:43 AM1 trades$500 min
10/29/2025, 6:01:23 AM1 trades$600 min
10/31/2025, 7:39:22 AM1 trades$200 min
11/1/2025, 8:30:06 AM1 trades$70 min
11/2/2025, 6:50:03 AM1 trades$700 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
12-31
02-04
03-07
04-18
05-15
09-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
6.8% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event