Polydata

@PrincessCaro

#1686

0x8119010a6e589062aa03583bb3f39ca632d9f887

654d· 14 markets · 5007 tradesVol: $23,520,8102026-07-10T08:32
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

86
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 81%20/20
Profit Factor 84.92x15/15
Sharpe 0.58011/15
Sortino 2027881038.76010/10
EV $+0.67710/10
HHI 24970/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

PrincessCaro is a highly active and successful trader on Polymarket, currently ranked 16th on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 16 days, they have executed 5,007 trades across 14 markets, generating a net profit of over $6 million from a total trading volume exceeding $23.5 million. Their elite Smart Score of 86/100 reflects a consistently strong performance, supported by a win rate of 78.6% and a profit factor of 2.80. Despite this impressive activity, their portfolio value currently stands at zero, indicating full realization of profits or closed positions.

PrincessCaro’s trading style is characterized by high-frequency, high-confidence trades with a significant preference for manual execution, as indicated by a moderate bot score of 45/100. They do not engage in weather markets or sell positions, suggesting a focus on holding winning positions rather than quick flipping. Their badges, such as Sniper and Diamond Hands, imply a strategic approach that balances precision entry points with disciplined holding. The absence of drawdown duration also suggests effective risk management and rapid recovery from any losses.

The key strengths of PrincessCaro include their exceptional profitability, disciplined trading approach, and ability to maintain a high win rate under intense trading volume. However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio of 0.58 points to moderate risk-adjusted returns, and the lack of portfolio diversification or exposure to weather markets could be a limitation. Additionally, the semi-bot trading style may introduce operational risks if market conditions shift suddenly. Overall, PrincessCaro’s performance on Polymarket demonstrates elite skill with some exposure to market-specific risks.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 81%
Profitable
PnL $+6,083,643
Diamond Hands
0% sell
DCA Master
avg 357.6 entries/market
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
Whale
$7,365,157
Consistent
3/3 days
High Roller
$455,586/day

Categories

1
🏛️ POLITICS#6$6,083,643Vol: $23,520,810

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$6,083,643
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$23,520,810
Total Redeem
$12,190,046
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
14
total markets
Trades
5007B / 0S
Daily Volume
$455,586
Account Age
654d
since Sep 26, 2024

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
8W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$6,083,643
Win Rate
79%
11W / 3L
Profit Factor
2.8x
Avg Win
$705,130
Avg Loss
$-923,956

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $6,265,602 (125.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$4,779,344
Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election?$855,599
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?$630,659
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential E$508,086
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?$425,519
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?$192,389
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? $188,303
Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election?$62,358
Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election?$59,075
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?$46,755

Top Losers

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$-2,745,439
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?$-25,585
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Pre$-843

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.580
Sortino
inf
HHI
2497
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.677
Kelly %
66.3%
Half-Kelly
33.1%
Top-1 market
37.8%
Top-5 markets
89.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
309.7
Very active
Markets / Day
0.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
12:00 UTC
Median Gap
16s
between trades
Avg Gap
4.2m
between trades
Night Trading
14%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.83
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
6 min
Avg Trades / Session
8.2

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 16s — typical for humanSize CV 5.83 — diverse, typical for human14% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.08 — human randomness310 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 12:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
357.6
Heavy DCA
<=1
0 entries
<=2
0 entries
<=5
0 entries
<=10
1 entries
<=20
2 entries
<=50
3 entries
>50
11 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0%
Mid (20-55c)68.9%
High (>55c)31.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 47.5%

Other$4,984,565

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.8
Events covered
8

Single bracket

<=1
2 brackets
<=2
8 brackets
<=3
8 brackets
<=4
8 brackets
<=5
8 brackets
<=8
8 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/2/2024, 4:19:42 PM5 trades$16,0761 min
10/2/2024, 4:29:30 PM1 trades$4670 min
10/2/2024, 4:35:20 PM6 trades$1274 min
10/2/2024, 4:48:28 PM3 trades$8002 min
10/2/2024, 5:18:28 PM2 trades$4,3002 min
10/2/2024, 5:38:11 PM1 trades$2700 min
10/2/2024, 6:23:41 PM33 trades$22,35446 min
10/2/2024, 7:17:16 PM3 trades$1,0011 min
10/2/2024, 7:23:36 PM40 trades$17,43342 min
10/2/2024, 8:11:32 PM24 trades$2,31830 min
10/2/2024, 8:54:23 PM15 trades$1,69116 min
10/2/2024, 9:15:31 PM1 trades$500 min
10/2/2024, 9:24:51 PM4 trades$2317 min
10/2/2024, 9:38:57 PM4 trades$442 min
10/2/2024, 9:47:57 PM10 trades$11811 min
10/2/2024, 10:14:39 PM1 trades$110 min
10/2/2024, 10:45:59 PM1 trades$1040 min
10/2/2024, 11:07:53 PM2 trades$5281 min
10/3/2024, 12:05:15 AM14 trades$6,41512 min
10/3/2024, 12:22:53 AM6 trades$1027 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-04
11-05
11-08

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 357.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.8 br/event