Polydata
Data is 16 days old — refreshing in background...

@Quick-Cardboard

#4,02677

0xf92a950992181e21874dd1b36c7e5666c443a517

596d· 368 markets · 2655 tradesVol: $2,862,3772026-06-27T12:07
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

77
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 98%20/20
Profit Factor 8.74x15/15
Sharpe 0.2625/15
Sortino 0.1842/10
EV $+0.81110/10
HHI 10610/10
Profit Days 90%10/10
DD/Peak 43%5/10

Summary

Quick-Cardboard is an experienced and moderately active trader on Polymarket, holding the global PnL rank of #4026. Over 851 days, they have completed 2,655 trades across 289 markets, generating a net profit of $39,023.54 on a total volume of nearly $2.9 million. Their smart score of 77/100 indicates very good trading performance, supported by a high win rate of 93.5% and a profit factor of 2.88, reflecting consistent profitability despite a modest Sharpe ratio of 0.26.

The trader’s strategy appears to favor steady, low-risk manual trading, as indicated by a low bot score and a conservative max drawdown duration of zero days. Quick-Cardboard primarily engages in markets with a strong emphasis on weather-related questions, though these constitute only 3% of their activity. Their sell percentage at 30% suggests a balanced approach between holding positions and timely exits. The equity trend remains flat and stable, pointing to consistent but cautious market engagement, likely leveraging dollar-cost averaging techniques to manage exposure.

Quick-Cardboard’s strengths lie in their impressive win streak and high accuracy, backed by badges such as Sniper and DCA Master, which highlight precision and disciplined scaling. However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio and flat equity trend hint at limited upside volatility, potentially capping returns. While their human-driven style reduces risks from automated errors, it may also limit rapid reaction in fast-moving markets. Overall, Quick-Cardboard demonstrates reliable, steady trading performance with moderate growth potential on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 98%
Profitable
PnL $+39,024
DCA Master
avg 6.5 entries/market
Win Streak
137 wins in a row
Whale
$1,379,243
Consistent
66/73 days
High Roller
$1,621/day

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#1,265$38,508Vol: $2,670,734
🎭 CULTURE#738,960$-39Vol: $101,717
📈 ECONOMICS#11,995$91Vol: $52,354
💻 TECH#2,725$343Vol: $25,610
🌤️ WEATHER#6,406$104Vol: $2,704
CRYPTO#130,428$43Vol: $1,490
SPORTS#99,254$127Vol: $1,150
📢 MENTIONS#33,355$2Vol: $195

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$39,024
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,862,377
Total Redeem
$912,654
Portfolio
$132,738
Predictions
368
total markets
Trades
1865B / 790S
Daily Volume
$1,621
Account Age
596d
since Nov 24, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-134
Vol: $0
Week
$370
Vol: $69,045
Month
$7,332
Vol: $206,624
All Time
$39,024
Vol: $2,862,377

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
97%
207W / 6L events
Realized PnL
$124,490
Win Rate
94%
232W / 16L
Profit Factor
2.88x
Avg Win
$442
Avg Loss
$-2,223

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $15,199 (22.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?$6,500
Will Russia capture Siversk by August 31?$4,388
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Repre$4,311
Will Trump visit China by June 30?$2,705
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?$2,630
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$2,592
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?$2,517
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30?$2,457
Will Trump visit China by May 31?$2,434
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?$2,415

Top Losers

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?$-12,464
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?$-6,252
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?$-4,152
Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia aft$-3,516
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?$-2,610
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9?$-1,657
French election called by December 31?$-1,495
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?$-817
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30?$-630
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by September 30?$-550

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.262
Sortino
0.184
HHI
106
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.811
Kelly %
72.4%
Half-Kelly
36.2%
Top-1 market
4.2%
Top-5 markets
14.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
5.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.9h
between trades
Night Trading
9%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.82
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.8

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 110s — typical for humanSize CV 1.82 — diverse, typical for human9% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.90 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
6.5
Active DCA
<=1
92 entries
<=2
124 entries
<=5
195 entries
<=10
243 entries
<=20
269 entries
<=50
285 entries
>50
4 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.1%
Mid (20-55c)1.7%
High (>55c)98.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 18.2%

Other$66,321
New York City$1,526
Drula$480
Warsaw$103
Paris$98
Russia$-1,657

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
202

Single bracket

<=1
159 brackets
<=2
182 brackets
<=3
192 brackets
<=4
196 brackets
<=5
200 brackets
<=8
201 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/2/2025, 5:32:11 AM1 trades$1660 min
4/2/2025, 8:33:54 PM1 trades$3,0440 min
4/2/2025, 8:44:54 PM1 trades$9030 min
4/12/2025, 9:52:32 AM1 trades$4230 min
4/13/2025, 8:05:19 AM2 trades$690 min
4/14/2025, 3:42:26 PM3 trades$17,4587 min
4/14/2025, 5:44:14 PM1 trades$3840 min
4/14/2025, 7:37:48 PM7 trades$10,4855 min
4/14/2025, 9:06:36 PM1 trades$120 min
4/14/2025, 9:16:08 PM1 trades$2700 min
4/14/2025, 9:33:22 PM1 trades$1,6400 min
4/14/2025, 10:20:56 PM1 trades$1,0130 min
4/15/2025, 4:41:31 PM3 trades$2,7692 min
4/15/2025, 4:58:47 PM1 trades$780 min
4/16/2025, 6:14:20 PM1 trades$1,4270 min
4/17/2025, 5:16:11 AM1 trades$5,9550 min
4/17/2025, 5:25:51 AM1 trades$8330 min
4/17/2025, 5:34:21 AM1 trades$9670 min
4/17/2025, 6:19:37 AM1 trades$5,4540 min
4/17/2025, 11:30:59 AM1 trades$600 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-09
08-26
11-16
01-16
03-08
05-07
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
3.1% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
29.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 6.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event