Polydata

@Quixotic-Journal

#2,632,16423

0x9d603acc9b811f7e55fc389a8ce70bc32d3a9649

248d· 230 markets · 576 tradesVol: $34,4422026-06-14T12:49
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

23
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 56%13/20
Profit Factor 0.65x0/15
HHI 14910/10
Profit Days 29%0/10
DD/Peak 795%0/10

Summary

Quixotic-Journal is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with 576 trades spread across 230 markets over 249 days. Despite a relatively high win rate of 57.9%, their net profit and loss stands at a negative $425.81, placing them at rank #2,632,164 on the global PnL leaderboard and reflecting an overall below-average performance with a Smart Score of 23 out of 100. Their total trading volume is $34,442, but their portfolio value has declined to zero, indicating sustained losses.

The trading style of Quixotic-Journal appears diversified given the large number of markets engaged, yet they show no preference for weather-related markets. Nearly half of their trades involve selling positions, suggesting a balanced approach between buying and selling. However, the negative Sharpe ratio of -0.19 and a profit factor below 1 (0.67) indicate a high-risk profile with returns not compensating adequately for the risks taken. Their timing does not show prolonged drawdowns, as the maximum drawdown duration is zero days, but the overall equity trend is downward.

Quixotic-Journal’s key strength lies in maintaining a positive win streak and a decent win rate, which might indicate skill in timing individual trades. However, the consistent negative returns and declining equity trend highlight potential issues with risk management or market selection. Their below-average Smart and Bot Scores suggest they are a human trader with room to improve strategy efficiency on Polymarket. Without addressing these concerns, the current trajectory may limit future profitability.

Badges

1
Win Streak
12 wins in a row

Categories

5
CRYPTO#1,488,717$-405Vol: $25,889
SPORTS#320,702$3Vol: $5,648
📈 ECONOMICS#445,447$-1Vol: $1,702
🏛️ POLITICS#1,294,788$-14Vol: $934
📢 MENTIONS#119,961$-10Vol: $268

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-426
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$34,442
Total Redeem
$178
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
230
total markets
Trades
297B / 279S
Daily Volume
$44
Account Age
248d
since Oct 9, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-42
Vol: $481
Week
$19
Vol: $481
Month
$1
Vol: $3,056
All Time
$-426
Vol: $34,442

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
58%
131W / 94L events
Realized PnL
$-448
Win Rate
58%
132W / 96L
Profit Factor
0.67x
Avg Win
$7
Avg Loss
$-14

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$50
Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$32
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$31
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$28
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$27
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$27
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 10PM ET$25
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$22
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$22
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$20

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET$-331
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$-80
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$-69
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$-52
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET$-43
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$-41
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$-40
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$-39
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$-36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$-31

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.191
Sortino
-0.192
HHI
149
Diversified
EV per $1
$-8.720
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
7.7%
Top-5 markets
17.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.9
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
49.7m
between trades
Night Trading
26%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.27
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.1

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 170s — typical for humanSize CV 1.27 — diverse, typical for human26% at night — bot never sleeps20/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.79 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.3
Single entry
<=1
176 entries
<=2
221 entries
<=5
230 entries
<=10
230 entries
<=20
230 entries
<=50
230 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)6.7%
Mid (20-55c)18.2%
High (>55c)75.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 48.7%

Miami$3
Lucknow$-4
Up or Down$-5
Other$-438

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
228

Single bracket

<=1
227 brackets
<=2
227 brackets
<=3
228 brackets
<=4
228 brackets
<=5
228 brackets
<=8
228 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/9/2025, 1:40:21 PM1 trades$300 min
10/9/2025, 1:53:55 PM1 trades$260 min
10/12/2025, 2:56:13 AM1 trades$210 min
10/12/2025, 3:22:13 AM2 trades$24 min
10/13/2025, 3:21:09 AM1 trades$120 min
10/13/2025, 5:30:11 AM1 trades$30 min
10/13/2025, 7:25:43 AM1 trades$50 min
10/13/2025, 2:22:59 PM1 trades$50 min
10/16/2025, 7:25:26 AM2 trades$20 min
10/16/2025, 7:31:27 AM2 trades$262 min
10/16/2025, 7:43:23 AM1 trades$240 min
10/16/2025, 7:56:49 AM5 trades$587 min
10/16/2025, 8:13:23 AM3 trades$531 min
10/29/2025, 5:16:01 AM3 trades$34 min
10/29/2025, 5:27:37 AM5 trades$156 min
10/29/2025, 5:45:27 AM3 trades$241 min
10/29/2025, 6:00:21 AM4 trades$383 min
10/29/2025, 6:15:15 AM4 trades$433 min
10/29/2025, 6:31:09 AM6 trades$419 min
11/2/2025, 6:42:29 AM2 trades$95 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-11
11-02
11-30
02-12
02-22
05-19
06-14

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
48.4% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event