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@Reasonable-Protection

#12,60775

0xb94aa26e2844c47232377604c6001e88f8a5d680

82d· 1011 markets · 3507 tradesVol: $1,380,2792026-06-24T20:13
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

75
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 98%20/20
Profit Factor 0.58x0/15
Sharpe 1.21815/15
Sortino 2.81410/10
HHI 8210/10
Profit Days 97%10/10
DD/Peak 2%10/10

Summary

Reasonable-Protection is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, currently ranked #12607 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 70 days, they have executed 3,507 trades across 315 markets, generating a net profit of $10,830.01 on a total volume of $1.38 million. Their Smart Score of 75/100 indicates a very good trading performance, supported by a solid win rate of 81.9% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.22, reflecting consistent risk-adjusted returns.

The trading style of Reasonable-Protection leans heavily toward weather markets, which constitute 56% of their activity. Their moderate sell percentage of 27% suggests a preference for holding positions rather than frequent exit strategies. The combination of a high win rate and a profit factor below 1 (0.58) points to a risk profile that balances frequent small wins with occasional losses, potentially using dollar-cost averaging, as indicated by their "DCA Master" badge. Their trading timing appears stable, with no significant drawdown duration and a flat equity trend indicating steady performance without large swings.

Reasonable-Protection’s strengths lie in their consistency and disciplined approach, as seen in badges like "Sniper" and "Win Streak," which highlight accuracy and momentum. However, the relatively low profit factor and semi-bot score of 55/100 suggest some reliance on automated strategies mixed with manual intervention, which could introduce risks if market conditions shift. Maintaining stable performance while managing drawdowns is a key advantage, but the flat equity trend may indicate limited growth potential at this stage.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 98%
Profitable
PnL $+10,830
DCA Master
avg 8.1 entries/market
Win Streak
30 wins in a row
Whale
$318,324
Consistent
62/64 days
High Roller
$4,547/day
Cool Head
DD 2%

Categories

5
🌤️ WEATHER#118$13,038Vol: $1,019,284
SPORTS#1,738,767$-4,108Vol: $68,369
🏛️ POLITICS#1,367,316$-24Vol: $600
CRYPTO#1,203,235$-19Vol: $416
💰 FINANCE#559,865$-12Vol: $100

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$10,830
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,380,279
Total Redeem
$30,631
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1011
total markets
Trades
2550B / 957S
Daily Volume
$4,547
Account Age
82d
since Apr 13, 2026

Periods

#2
Week
$-748
Vol: $7,645
Month
$-2,549
Vol: $294,619
All Time
$10,830
Vol: $1,380,279

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
98%
193W / 3L events
Realized PnL
$23,207
Win Rate
82%
222W / 49L
Profit Factor
0.58x
Avg Win
$95
Avg Loss
$-737

Top Winners

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?$1,257
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on April 26?$587
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 12?$561
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 27?$538
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 9?$435
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama?$435
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 20?$318
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 12?$281
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 20?$249
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 3?$244

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 16?$-6,157
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 20?$-1,855
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 12?$-1,735
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 28?$-1,657
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 28?$-1,439
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on May 2?$-1,423
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 17?$-1,350
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 26?$-1,333
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 22?$-1,243
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 30?$-1,188

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
1.218
Sortino
2.814
HHI
82
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.049
Kelly %
10.8%
Half-Kelly
5.4%
Top-1 market
2.5%
Top-5 markets
11.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
51.7
Very active
Markets / Day
4.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
6:00 UTC
Median Gap
54s
between trades
Avg Gap
26.3m
between trades
Night Trading
26%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.57
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
5 min
Avg Trades / Session
7.0

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 54s — typical for humanSize CV 2.57 — diverse, typical for human26% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.17 — human randomness52 trades/day — mass trading

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 6:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
8.1
Active DCA
<=1
49 entries
<=2
72 entries
<=5
145 entries
<=10
227 entries
<=20
295 entries
<=50
315 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)4.9%
Mid (20-55c)10.7%
High (>55c)84.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 9%

Other$6,247
Shenzhen$37
Chengdu$-370
Qingdao$-1,075
Shanghai$-1,193
Guangzhou$-1,239
Beijing$-2,301
Chongqing$-4,656
Wuhan$-10,471

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
237

Single bracket

<=1
179 brackets
<=2
220 brackets
<=3
235 brackets
<=4
236 brackets
<=5
237 brackets
<=8
237 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/16/2026, 2:27:12 AM7 trades$1372 min
4/16/2026, 2:35:26 AM1 trades$2150 min
4/16/2026, 4:20:30 AM3 trades$4391 min
4/16/2026, 4:37:08 AM9 trades$4,6573 min
4/16/2026, 4:45:12 AM24 trades$8,33326 min
4/16/2026, 5:34:46 AM1 trades$560 min
4/16/2026, 6:23:46 AM7 trades$443 min
4/16/2026, 6:35:26 AM19 trades$7,14827 min
4/16/2026, 7:27:34 AM12 trades$1,57313 min
4/16/2026, 7:49:42 AM19 trades$6,05710 min
4/16/2026, 8:05:20 AM5 trades$6,7482 min
4/16/2026, 8:54:32 AM1 trades$5530 min
4/16/2026, 9:01:16 AM1 trades$320 min
4/17/2026, 3:26:50 AM7 trades$24913 min
4/17/2026, 3:51:54 AM3 trades$9434 min
4/17/2026, 4:01:10 AM7 trades$4704 min
4/17/2026, 4:14:26 AM2 trades$2070 min
4/17/2026, 4:20:42 AM3 trades$2462 min
4/17/2026, 4:47:34 AM2 trades$480 min
4/17/2026, 4:57:24 AM1 trades$480 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-14
04-24
05-04
05-14
05-26
06-06
06-20

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
56.2% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
27.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 8.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event