Polydata

@Repentant-Prelude

#2,908,40160

0x070541386a9533e21eab164ffe772e529f91a86f

92d· 1197 markets · 1595 tradesVol: $2,140,0872026-06-24T04:06
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

60
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 55%13/20
Profit Factor 1.52x9/15
Sharpe 0.1563/15
Sortino 0.4885/10
EV $+0.53110/10
HHI 3810/10
Profit Days 44%4/10
DD/Peak 37%7/10

Summary

Repentant-Prelude is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #2,908,401 globally by net PnL. Over 121 days, they executed 1,595 trades across 578 markets, generating a total volume exceeding $2.1 million. Despite an overall net loss of $58,249.20, the trader maintains a portfolio value of $5,229.15 and a Smart Score of 60/100, indicating solid trading skills. Their equity trend is upward, reflecting growth potential despite recent losses.

The trader favors a high-frequency, diversified approach, engaging in a wide array of markets but notably avoids weather-related ones. With a win rate of 88.3% and a profit factor of 11.72, Repentant-Prelude demonstrates strong trade selection and timing. Their low sell percentage (19%) and a Sharpe ratio of 0.16 suggest a relatively conservative risk profile with moderate exposure. The semi-automated trading style, indicated by a Bot Score of 45/100, combines algorithmic and manual decision-making to optimize entry and exit points.

Repentant-Prelude’s key strengths include a consistent win streak, high trade volume, and an upward equity trend, which are promising indicators on Polymarket. However, the substantial net loss and modest Sharpe ratio highlight potential issues with risk management or market volatility. The absence of drawdown duration suggests quick recovery periods, but traders should monitor how the balance between manual and bot-driven strategies evolves over time.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

3
Win Streak
54 wins in a row
Whale
$244,230
High Roller
$2,018/day

Categories

4
CRYPTO#1,603,607$-62,855Vol: $2,002,434
SPORTS#8,551$4,674Vol: $132,869
🏛️ POLITICS#1,404,213$-36Vol: $4,335
📢 MENTIONS#143,844$-33Vol: $448

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-58,249
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,140,087
Total Redeem
$32,353
Portfolio
$5,229
Predictions
1197
total markets
Trades
1291B / 304S
Daily Volume
$2,018
Account Age
92d
since Mar 24, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-326
Vol: $0
Week
$-1,128
Vol: $3,036
Month
$-19,439
Vol: $447,447
All Time
$-58,249
Vol: $2,140,087

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
55%
253W / 203L events
Realized PnL
$136,703
Win Rate
88%
144W / 19L
Profit Factor
11.72x
Avg Win
$457
Avg Loss
$-295

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $6,597 (11% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?$2,732
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$1,959
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$1,906
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$1,527
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$1,471
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?$1,386
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$1,326
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$1,325
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$1,147
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$1,113

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET$-1,548
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET$-834
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$-813
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$-548
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET$-457
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$-341
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET$-307
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$-232
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$-179
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$-93

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.156
Sortino
0.488
HHI
38
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.531
Kelly %
82.5%
Half-Kelly
41.2%
Top-1 market
1.3%
Top-5 markets
5.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
17.7
Active
Markets / Day
6.4
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
6:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
41.5m
between trades
Night Trading
40%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.94
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.5

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 90s — typical for humanSize CV 0.94 — diverse, typical for human40% at night — bot never sleeps23/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.94 — human randomness18 trades/day — very active465 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 6:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.2
Moderate DCA
<=1
256 entries
<=2
417 entries
<=5
546 entries
<=10
569 entries
<=20
577 entries
<=50
577 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)9.8%
Mid (20-55c)54%
High (>55c)36.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 42.4%

Other$59,742
Paris$400
Shanghai$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
563

Single bracket

<=1
551 brackets
<=2
560 brackets
<=3
563 brackets
<=4
563 brackets
<=5
563 brackets
<=8
563 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/26/2026, 3:13:01 AM1 trades$3000 min
3/26/2026, 5:41:47 AM1 trades$2890 min
4/10/2026, 7:04:11 AM1 trades$640 min
4/10/2026, 1:29:23 PM1 trades$220 min
4/10/2026, 2:33:53 PM7 trades$1,15714 min
4/10/2026, 3:02:47 PM3 trades$1,2172 min
4/10/2026, 11:30:37 PM1 trades$4710 min
4/11/2026, 12:03:37 AM1 trades$730 min
4/11/2026, 12:15:31 AM1 trades$970 min
4/11/2026, 1:00:21 AM1 trades$1400 min
4/11/2026, 1:12:03 AM2 trades$2262 min
4/11/2026, 1:38:09 AM2 trades$843 min
4/11/2026, 1:51:33 AM9 trades$71313 min
4/11/2026, 2:15:33 AM3 trades$2563 min
4/11/2026, 2:23:43 AM3 trades$6073 min
4/11/2026, 2:34:21 AM5 trades$6943 min
4/11/2026, 2:43:35 AM6 trades$5498 min
4/11/2026, 2:56:51 AM8 trades$4614 min
4/11/2026, 3:10:35 AM1 trades$70 min
4/11/2026, 3:21:13 AM5 trades$1,39410 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-21
04-20
05-07
05-18
05-29
06-14
06-24
07-20

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
19.1% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event