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@Rich-Guilder

#2,694,56610

0xd5409b98005415c3d3012f43b28ca043607bf3db

179d· 7318 markets · 4244 tradesVol: $201,4482026-06-26T11:17
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

10
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 8%0/20
Profit Factor 0.23x0/15
HHI 510/10
Profit Days 1%0/10

Summary

Rich-Guilder is a relatively new trader on Polymarket, ranked #2,694,566 on the global profit and loss leaderboard. Despite a high trading volume of over $201,000 across nearly 4,250 trades, their net PnL stands at negative $441.13. The trader has maintained activity for 199 days and has a smart score of 10 out of 100, indicating a beginner level of expertise. Their portfolio value is currently zero, and the Sharpe ratio of -1.10 suggests negative risk-adjusted returns.

Rich-Guilder focuses primarily on a broad range of markets, having traded in 3,478 different ones, with a slight preference for weather-related markets (4%). Their risk profile appears aggressive, as indicated by a very high win rate of 94.2% combined with a low sell percentage of 3%, implying they hold positions rather than actively taking profits. The trader’s equity trend is upward, showing growth over time, and their trading style blends manual and automated strategies, evidenced by a bot score of 50 out of 100.

The main strength of Rich-Guilder lies in their high win rate and profit factor of 23.06, suggesting efficient trade selection despite beginner status. However, the negative net PnL and Sharpe ratio highlight potential issues with risk management or trade sizing. Additionally, the zero portfolio value and short max drawdown duration imply a cautious or inconsistent capital deployment strategy, which could limit long-term gains on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

2
Diamond Hands
3% sell
Win Streak
63 wins in a row

Categories

4
CRYPTO#50,677$315Vol: $174,058
🌤️ WEATHER#283,079$-750Vol: $25,987
SPORTS#235,713$14Vol: $1,228
💰 FINANCE#529,047$-5Vol: $8

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-441
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$201,448
Total Redeem
$11,853
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
7318
total markets
Trades
4117B / 127S
Daily Volume
$196
Account Age
179d
since Jan 5, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-9
Vol: $297
Week
$39
Vol: $2,624
Month
$-40
Vol: $3,470
All Time
$-441
Vol: $201,448

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
8%
251W / 2901L events
Realized PnL
$6,569
Win Rate
94%
503W / 31L
Profit Factor
23.06x
Avg Win
$7
Avg Loss
$-5

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $124 (3.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$31
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 18?$31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$28

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$-13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$-12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET$-10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$-10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$-9
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$-9
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$-7

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-1.102
Sortino
-1.115
HHI
5
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.777
Kelly %
91.6%
Half-Kelly
45.8%
Top-1 market
0.2%
Top-5 markets
0.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
24.7
Active
Markets / Day
20.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
12.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
49.6m
between trades
Night Trading
10%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.71
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.1

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 766s — typical for humanSize CV 0.71 — diverse, typical for human10% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.73 — human randomness25 trades/day — suspiciously high20 markets/day — mass coverage3191 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.2
Single entry
<=1
3034 entries
<=2
3344 entries
<=5
3475 entries
<=10
3478 entries
<=20
3478 entries
<=50
3478 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.1%
Mid (20-55c)69.2%
High (>55c)27.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 38.9%

Other$3,307
Hong Kong$31
Shanghai$22
Miami$20
Toronto$13
Tokyo$2
London$0
Chengdu$0
Manila$0
Taipei$0
Sao Paulo$0
Seoul$0
Wuhan$0
Singapore$0
New York City$0
Chicago$0
Amsterdam$0
Beijing$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
3441

Single bracket

<=1
3415 brackets
<=2
3433 brackets
<=3
3438 brackets
<=4
3441 brackets
<=5
3441 brackets
<=8
3441 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/5/2026, 4:53:59 PM1 trades$20 min
1/5/2026, 5:30:59 PM1 trades$40 min
1/5/2026, 5:45:35 PM1 trades$40 min
1/5/2026, 6:21:13 PM1 trades$50 min
1/5/2026, 7:40:55 PM1 trades$40 min
1/5/2026, 9:20:33 PM1 trades$30 min
1/5/2026, 9:48:17 PM1 trades$40 min
1/6/2026, 5:47:03 AM1 trades$60 min
1/6/2026, 5:53:01 AM1 trades$40 min
1/6/2026, 6:01:53 AM1 trades$30 min
1/6/2026, 7:58:03 AM1 trades$30 min
1/6/2026, 9:35:13 AM1 trades$30 min
1/6/2026, 10:04:55 AM1 trades$40 min
1/6/2026, 12:32:55 PM1 trades$30 min
1/6/2026, 12:39:57 PM1 trades$40 min
1/6/2026, 1:45:43 PM2 trades$74 min
1/6/2026, 3:28:07 PM3 trades$126 min
1/6/2026, 6:39:47 PM1 trades$30 min
1/6/2026, 7:06:01 PM1 trades$20 min
1/6/2026, 8:19:57 PM1 trades$30 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-09
01-30
02-24
03-21
04-15
05-10
06-22

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
3.8% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
3% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event