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@Rich-Guilder

#125,60010

0xd5409b98005415c3d3012f43b28ca043607bf3db

135d· 6497 markets · 3863 tradesVol: $168,2692026-05-14T14:39
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

10
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 9%0/20
Profit Factor 0.24x0/15
HHI 510/10
Profit Days 1%0/10

Summary

Rich-Guilder is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 3,863 trades across 3,376 markets over 155 days. Despite a relatively low global PnL rank at #125600, Rich-Guilder has achieved a net profit of $313.03 on a total trading volume exceeding $168,000. The trader’s portfolio value currently stands at zero, and their Smart Score suggests beginner-level experience.

The trading style of Rich-Guilder appears to be highly selective and low-risk, demonstrated by a remarkable win rate of 98.2% and a profit factor above 105. Their low sell percentage of 2% indicates a strong buy-and-hold or diamond hands approach, consistent with their badges. Rich-Guilder trades mostly manually with some bot assistance, maintaining an upward equity trend. The trader avoids weather markets and engages in a broad range of markets, showing diverse exposure but a conservative timing pattern.

Strengths for Rich-Guilder include a strong winning streak, a very high profit factor, and consistent profitability, making their strategy effective on Polymarket. However, the negative Sharpe ratio and zero max drawdown duration highlight possible issues with volatility and risk-adjusted returns. The beginner-level Smart Score also suggests room for growth in sophistication and risk management.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

3
Profitable
PnL $+313
Diamond Hands
2% sell
Win Streak
516 wins in a row

Categories

3
CRYPTO#47,111$319Vol: $166,866
SPORTS#822,032$-1Vol: $1,395
💰 FINANCE#503,954$-5Vol: $8

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$313
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$168,269
Total Redeem
$24,417
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
6497
total markets
Trades
3768B / 95S
Daily Volume
$273
Account Age
135d
since Jan 5, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-64
Vol: $6,759
Month
$-177
Vol: $36,974
All Time
$313
Vol: $168,269

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
9%
250W / 2656L events
Realized PnL
$6,467
Win Rate
98%
767W / 14L
Profit Factor
105.18x
Avg Win
$13
Avg Loss
$-7

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $149 (1.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$36

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$-12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET$-10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$-10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$-9
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$-9
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$-7
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$-5

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-1.213
Sortino
-1.234
HHI
5
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.768
Kelly %
97.8%
Half-Kelly
48.9%
Top-1 market
0.3%
Top-5 markets
1.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
30.2
Active
Markets / Day
26.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
15.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
46.3m
between trades
Night Trading
10%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.62
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.1

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 908s — typical for humanSize CV 0.62 — diverse, typical for human10% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.79 — human randomness30 trades/day — suspiciously high26 markets/day — mass coverage2906 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.1
Single entry
<=1
3090 entries
<=2
3297 entries
<=5
3376 entries
<=10
3376 entries
<=20
3376 entries
<=50
3376 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.4%
Mid (20-55c)78.6%
High (>55c)20%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 39%

Other$10,109
Madrid$7
Hong Kong$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
3376

Single bracket

<=1
3376 brackets
<=2
3376 brackets
<=3
3376 brackets
<=4
3376 brackets
<=5
3376 brackets
<=8
3376 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/5/2026, 4:53:59 PM1 trades$20 min
1/5/2026, 5:30:59 PM1 trades$40 min
1/5/2026, 5:45:35 PM1 trades$40 min
1/5/2026, 6:21:13 PM1 trades$50 min
1/5/2026, 7:40:55 PM1 trades$40 min
1/5/2026, 9:20:33 PM1 trades$30 min
1/5/2026, 9:48:17 PM1 trades$40 min
1/6/2026, 5:47:03 AM1 trades$60 min
1/6/2026, 5:53:01 AM1 trades$40 min
1/6/2026, 6:01:53 AM1 trades$30 min
1/6/2026, 7:58:03 AM1 trades$30 min
1/6/2026, 9:35:13 AM1 trades$30 min
1/6/2026, 10:04:55 AM1 trades$40 min
1/6/2026, 12:32:55 PM1 trades$30 min
1/6/2026, 12:39:57 PM1 trades$40 min
1/6/2026, 1:45:43 PM2 trades$74 min
1/6/2026, 3:28:07 PM3 trades$126 min
1/6/2026, 6:39:47 PM1 trades$30 min
1/6/2026, 7:06:01 PM1 trades$20 min
1/6/2026, 8:19:57 PM1 trades$30 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-09
01-26
02-16
03-09
03-30
04-20
05-11

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
2.5% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event