Polydata
Roasted-Honey

@Roasted-Honey

#3,54772

0x93fd1445c1d5307ebad91c43f3802a3e7ab77e2f

588d· 1140 markets · 17986 tradesVol: $6,656,9632026-06-24T23:18
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

72
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 20%0/20
Profit Factor 1.64x10/15
Sharpe 0.62412/15
Sortino 1.44610/10
EV $+0.70910/10
HHI 6110/10
Profit Days 85%10/10
DD/Peak 4%10/10

Summary

Roasted-Honey is an experienced and moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #3547 globally by net PnL. With nearly 18,000 trades across 481 markets over 574 days, they have generated a net profit of $44,842.62 on a total volume of over $6.6 million. Their Smart Score of 72/100 indicates a very good performance, supported by a 60% win rate and a profit factor of 2.34. Despite a relatively low portfolio value of $1,574.63, Roasted-Honey maintains consistent engagement with a Sharpe ratio of 0.62 and no significant drawdown duration.

Roasted-Honey’s trading style appears balanced and risk-conscious, combining manual and semi-automated approaches as reflected in their 50/100 Bot Score. They tend to avoid weather markets entirely and have a relatively low sell percentage of 23%, suggesting a preference for longer holding periods or strategic exits. Their badges highlight versatility, including contrarian moves, dollar-cost averaging (DCA), and hedging strategies. This indicates a trader who seeks to manage risk while capitalizing on market inefficiencies, often entering and exiting positions with a measured timing pattern.

The strengths of Roasted-Honey lie in their consistent profitability, diversified market participation, and risk management techniques. Their flat equity trend points to stable returns without excessive volatility. However, the moderate Sharpe ratio and a portfolio value considerably smaller than their net PnL suggest capital constraints or a cautious deployment of funds. Additionally, the semi-bot trading style could expose them to algorithmic risks or less adaptability in highly dynamic markets. Overall, Roasted-Honey demonstrates solid trading acumen on Polymarket, with room to enhance returns by optimizing capital and strategy flexibility.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Profitable
PnL $+44,843
Lottery Player
61% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
88% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 30.4 entries/market
Hedger
avg 3.1 brackets/event
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
Whale
$332,555
Consistent
146/171 days
Cool Head
DD 4%

Categories

8
🎭 CULTURE#161$44,677Vol: $6,569,702
🏛️ POLITICS#96,851$42Vol: $61,950
CRYPTO#85,883$107Vol: $15,937
📢 MENTIONS#6,646$82Vol: $6,378
SPORTS#191,071$28Vol: $1,080
💻 TECH#222,160$-24Vol: $469
🌤️ WEATHER#252,034$-22Vol: $100
💰 FINANCE#158,410$1Vol: $99

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$44,843
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$6,656,963
Total Redeem
$59,911
Portfolio
$1,575
Predictions
1140
total markets
Trades
13876B / 4110S
Daily Volume
$579
Account Age
588d
since Nov 15, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$197
Vol: $13,338
Week
$638
Vol: $52,167
Month
$1,561
Vol: $216,087
All Time
$44,843
Vol: $6,656,963

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
80%
170W / 43L events
Realized PnL
$317,742
Win Rate
60%
24W / 16L
Profit Factor
2.34x
Avg Win
$1,422
Avg Loss
$-912

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $13,149 (67.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$5,031
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$4,420
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?$3,697
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?$2,869
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?$2,452
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$2,315
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?$2,095
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$1,598
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?$1,438
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026?$1,397

Top Losers

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2$-2,778
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2,$-1,939
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 22 to January 24,$-1,471
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?$-1,350
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$-1,231
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$-1,094
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 29 to January 31, $-991
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$-956
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20,$-828
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$-550

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.624
Sortino
1.446
HHI
61
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.709
Kelly %
36.6%
Half-Kelly
18.3%
Top-1 market
1.7%
Top-5 markets
7.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
80.5
Very active
Markets / Day
2.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
54s
between trades
Avg Gap
15.0m
between trades
Night Trading
8%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.37
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.4

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 54s — typical for humanSize CV 3.37 — diverse, typical for human7% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.06 — human randomness81 trades/day — mass trading1370 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
30.4
Heavy DCA
<=1
26 entries
<=2
47 entries
<=5
79 entries
<=10
127 entries
<=20
210 entries
<=50
368 entries
>50
89 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)60.7%
Mid (20-55c)29.3%
High (>55c)9.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 83.3%

Other$19,526
Seoul$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
3.1
Events covered
155

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
39 brackets
<=2
77 brackets
<=3
107 brackets
<=4
124 brackets
<=5
134 brackets
<=8
151 brackets
>8
4 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/13/2025, 8:32:08 AM12 trades$27 min
11/13/2025, 11:56:30 AM2 trades$42 min
11/13/2025, 4:02:18 PM10 trades$1211 min
11/13/2025, 4:22:44 PM1 trades$40 min
11/13/2025, 4:30:20 PM1 trades$00 min
11/13/2025, 4:40:56 PM2 trades$33 min
11/13/2025, 4:52:04 PM1 trades$00 min
11/13/2025, 4:59:50 PM27 trades$519 min
11/13/2025, 5:37:24 PM1 trades$20 min
11/13/2025, 5:58:38 PM2 trades$02 min
11/13/2025, 7:28:10 PM1 trades$110 min
11/13/2025, 7:41:00 PM1 trades$70 min
11/13/2025, 7:48:14 PM2 trades$251 min
11/13/2025, 8:25:50 PM1 trades$10 min
11/13/2025, 9:34:14 PM2 trades$391 min
11/13/2025, 10:46:40 PM1 trades$30 min
11/14/2025, 1:48:06 AM3 trades$116 min
11/14/2025, 5:15:58 AM1 trades$100 min
11/14/2025, 5:26:48 AM1 trades$30 min
11/14/2025, 6:40:52 AM1 trades$120 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
10-10
01-05
02-13
03-25
05-04
06-24
06-26

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
22.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 30.4/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 3.1 br/event