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@Rubbery-Churn

#1,79789

0x2e3ea056400d81c42e2ce26ef25fda4ec5caabea

268d· 509 markets · 19002 tradesVol: $118,488,4382026-05-15T22:23
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

89
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 85%20/20
Profit Factor 8.15x15/15
Sharpe 0.2134/15
Sortino 3429550.02010/10
EV $+1.35310/10
HHI 36710/10
Profit Days 98%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Rubbery-Churn is a highly active Polymarket trader ranked #1797 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $83,404.60. Over 452 days, they have executed 19,002 trades across 191 markets, accumulating a total volume of over $118 million. Despite the large trading volume, their portfolio value remains relatively stable around $132,000, and their trading activity has earned them an Elite Smart Score of 89/100.

This trader demonstrates a contrarian and hedging strategy, focusing on high-volume, diversified markets rather than specializing in one niche, as indicated by zero exposure to weather markets. Rubbery-Churn’s win rate is 34%, paired with a low profit factor of 0.03, suggesting frequent small losses with occasional large wins. Their risk profile appears cautious, reflected in a flat equity trend, low Sharpe ratio of 0.21, and no prolonged drawdowns. The mix of manual and semi-automated trading (Bot Score 55/100) points to a hybrid approach that balances systematic execution with discretionary adjustments.

Rubbery-Churn’s key strengths include disciplined risk management and consistency, evidenced by stable portfolio value and no drawdown duration. However, their low win rate and profit factor highlight the risk of frequent losing trades, which may challenge long-term scaling. Their contrarian style could capitalize on market inefficiencies, but the reliance on occasional big wins makes performance vulnerable to market volatility. Overall, Rubbery-Churn’s data-driven approach on Polymarket reflects a steady yet cautious trading profile with moderate upside potential.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 85%
Profitable
PnL $+83,405
Lottery Player
91% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
93% entries <$0.50
Hedger
avg 4.1 brackets/event
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
Whale
$446,952
Consistent
57/58 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

6
SPORTS#752$80,730Vol: $115,497,821
💰 FINANCE#1,226$3,517Vol: $2,157,507
CRYPTO#1,490,545$-2,369Vol: $544,671
📈 ECONOMICS#4,048$484Vol: $67,763
🎭 CULTURE#14,605$160Vol: $5,640
🏛️ POLITICS#23,227$596Vol: $4,518

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$83,405
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$118,488,438
Total Redeem
$72,395
Portfolio
$132,160
Predictions
509
total markets
Trades
10879B / 8123S
Daily Volume
$989
Account Age
268d
since Aug 26, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-448
Vol: $20,842
Week
$442
Vol: $228,959
Month
$22,026
Vol: $896,616
All Time
$83,405
Vol: $118,488,438

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
89W / 1L events
Realized PnL
$213,776
Win Rate
34%
54W / 105L
Profit Factor
0.03x
Avg Win
$166
Avg Loss
$-2,790

Top Winners

Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals$1,857
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$1,446
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?$1,369
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$1,134
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$576
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga?$513
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$429
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$288
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?$152
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$140

Top Losers

Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?$-38,961
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-31,830
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?$-26,815
Will Udinese place 2nd for the 2025-26 Serie A season?$-16,380
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League?$-14,473
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League?$-10,956
Will the New Orleans Pelicans have the worst record in the NBA?$-10,413
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?$-10,280
Will Elche finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings?$-9,956
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?$-9,709

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.213
Sortino
inf
HHI
367
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.353
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
8.7%
Top-5 markets
34.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
90.2
Very active
Markets / Day
0.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
6.2m
between trades
Night Trading
24%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
13.91
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.6

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 86s — typical for humanSize CV 13.91 — diverse, typical for human24% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.83 — human randomness90 trades/day — mass trading334 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 8:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
60.8
Heavy DCA
<=1
37 entries
<=2
64 entries
<=5
106 entries
<=10
136 entries
<=20
147 entries
<=50
156 entries
>50
23 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)90.6%
Mid (20-55c)2.3%
High (>55c)7.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 10.2%

Los Angeles$3,227
Munich$73
Chicago$72
Houston$41
Toronto$13
Milan$6
Paris$-2,552
Atlanta$-9,897
Madrid$-44,887
Other$-230,040

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
4.1
Events covered
47

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
17 brackets
<=2
24 brackets
<=3
28 brackets
<=4
34 brackets
<=5
34 brackets
<=8
41 brackets
>8
6 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/17/2025, 7:23:08 AM1 trades$50 min
10/17/2025, 7:31:26 AM1 trades$00 min
10/17/2025, 7:53:06 AM1 trades$60 min
10/17/2025, 8:07:46 AM2 trades$133 min
10/17/2025, 8:16:24 AM1 trades$70 min
10/17/2025, 8:27:20 AM1 trades$70 min
10/17/2025, 8:32:30 AM1 trades$10 min
10/17/2025, 8:41:42 AM1 trades$60 min
10/17/2025, 9:06:58 AM2 trades$70 min
10/17/2025, 9:27:06 AM6 trades$52 min
10/17/2025, 9:36:24 AM5 trades$125 min
10/17/2025, 10:52:28 AM1 trades$10 min
10/17/2025, 11:26:48 AM10 trades$4615 min
10/17/2025, 12:18:58 PM6 trades$202 min
10/17/2025, 12:37:42 PM1 trades$10 min
10/17/2025, 12:51:18 PM1 trades$30 min
10/17/2025, 1:55:42 PM1 trades$00 min
10/17/2025, 2:02:18 PM2 trades$20 min
10/17/2025, 2:07:42 PM23 trades$223 min
10/17/2025, 2:19:30 PM2 trades$00 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-05
12-28
01-26
03-19
04-19
05-31
10-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
42.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 60.8/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 4.1 br/event