Polydata

@Rubbery-Churn

#1,98289

0x2e3ea056400d81c42e2ce26ef25fda4ec5caabea

304d· 523 markets · 27772 tradesVol: $119,563,3462026-06-26T23:16
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

89
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 90%20/20
Profit Factor 6.98x15/15
Sharpe 0.2134/15
Sortino 747.24610/10
EV $+1.34510/10
HHI 32710/10
Profit Days 95%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Rubbery-Churn is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #1982 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 452 days, they have executed 27,772 trades across 229 markets, generating a net profit of $85,916.46 on a total volume exceeding $119 million. Their portfolio value stands at $134,222.40, supported by an elite Smart Score of 89/100, indicating a high level of trading skill despite a relatively low win rate of 32.1%.

The trading style of Rubbery-Churn shows a preference for diverse markets, avoiding weather-related events entirely. Their approach blends manual and automated elements, reflected in a semi-bot score of 60/100. The trader exhibits a contrarian and hedging strategy, indicated by badges such as "Contrarian" and "Hedger," and nearly half of their trades involve selling positions. Rubbery-Churn’s profit factor of 0.15 and Sharpe ratio of 0.21 suggest a cautious risk profile with limited volatility in returns, supported by a stable equity trend and zero-day max drawdown duration.

Rubbery-Churn’s strengths lie in consistent trading discipline and risk management, as evidenced by their stable portfolio and elite Smart Score. However, the low win rate and profit factor highlight challenges in profitability per trade, potentially limiting upside during volatile periods. The semi-bot trading style may offer efficiency but also introduces dependency on automated signals. Overall, Rubbery-Churn balances risk and reward with steady execution but faces risks of low trade profitability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

10
Sniper
Win Rate 90%
Profitable
PnL $+85,916
Lottery Player
92% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
94% entries <$0.50
Hedger
avg 3.9 brackets/event
Win Streak
10 wins in a row
Whale
$738,462
Consistent
56/59 days
High Roller
$1,634/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

6
SPORTS#788$83,175Vol: $116,452,092
💰 FINANCE#1,356$3,577Vol: $2,278,145
CRYPTO#1,588,672$-2,369Vol: $544,671
📈 ECONOMICS#4,331$484Vol: $67,763
🎭 CULTURE#15,685$160Vol: $5,640
🏛️ POLITICS#24,527$589Vol: $4,518

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$85,916
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$119,563,346
Total Redeem
$64,645
Portfolio
$134,222
Predictions
523
total markets
Trades
14893B / 12879S
Daily Volume
$1,634
Account Age
304d
since Aug 26, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$1,447
Vol: $20,833
Week
$753
Vol: $469,510
Month
$1,885
Vol: $772,925
All Time
$85,916
Vol: $119,563,346

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
97%
86W / 3L events
Realized PnL
$216,553
Win Rate
32%
61W / 129L
Profit Factor
0.15x
Avg Win
$1,176
Avg Loss
$-3,792

Top Winners

Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?$13,486
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?$10,562
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?$8,441
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026?$6,322
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026?$6,123
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?$4,457
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026?$3,817
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026?$3,786
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?$3,141
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals$1,857

Top Losers

Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026?$-62,606
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2$-41,780
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?$-38,961
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-31,830
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February?$-29,352
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?$-26,815
Will Udinese place 2nd for the 2025-26 Serie A season?$-16,380
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League?$-14,473
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?$-14,440
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January?$-13,267

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.213
Sortino
747.246
HHI
327
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.345
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
10.7%
Top-5 markets
30.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
107.1
Very active
Markets / Day
0.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
8.4m
between trades
Night Trading
22%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
16.72
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.5

Bot Detection

#6
60
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 78s — typical for humanSize CV 16.72 — diverse, typical for human22% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.87 — human randomness107 trades/day — automation302 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 8:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
68
Heavy DCA
<=1
48 entries
<=2
78 entries
<=5
120 entries
<=10
154 entries
<=20
171 entries
<=50
190 entries
>50
29 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)92%
Mid (20-55c)1.8%
High (>55c)6.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 26%

Los Angeles$13,789
Seattle$13,486
Denver$3,141
Miami$1,189
Munich$73
Chicago$72
Milan$6
Toronto$-2,076
Paris$-2,552
Houston$-6,660
Atlanta$-9,897
Madrid$-44,824
Other$-383,198

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
3.9
Events covered
59

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
25 brackets
<=2
33 brackets
<=3
37 brackets
<=4
44 brackets
<=5
47 brackets
<=8
52 brackets
>8
7 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/10/2025, 1:06:22 PM6 trades$3210 min
10/10/2025, 1:21:46 PM9 trades$718 min
10/10/2025, 1:46:42 PM2 trades$01 min
10/10/2025, 1:55:02 PM18 trades$23826 min
10/10/2025, 2:31:18 PM4 trades$1008 min
10/10/2025, 2:44:16 PM1 trades$680 min
10/10/2025, 2:50:40 PM3 trades$104 min
10/10/2025, 3:01:54 PM2 trades$14 min
10/10/2025, 3:13:52 PM1 trades$00 min
10/10/2025, 3:34:08 PM3 trades$44 min
10/10/2025, 3:50:52 PM2 trades$20 min
10/10/2025, 3:57:22 PM1 trades$40 min
10/10/2025, 4:18:48 PM1 trades$10 min
10/10/2025, 4:26:14 PM1 trades$10 min
10/10/2025, 4:33:16 PM10 trades$11912 min
10/10/2025, 5:08:24 PM1 trades$220 min
10/10/2025, 5:14:26 PM2 trades$270 min
10/10/2025, 5:35:16 PM1 trades$10 min
10/10/2025, 5:51:56 PM2 trades$41 min
10/10/2025, 6:00:10 PM2 trades$120 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-05
12-28
01-28
04-01
05-07
06-10
06-27
07-20

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
46.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 68/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 3.9 br/event