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@Rude-Ale

#2,28674

0x0b219cf3d297991b58361dbebdbaa91e56b8deb6

602d· 230 markets · 5045 tradesVol: $4,884,2262026-06-26T15:22
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

74
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 82%20/20
Profit Factor 1.58x10/15
Sharpe 0.2034/15
Sortino 0.3113/10
EV $+0.40310/10
HHI 27510/10
Profit Days 79%10/10
DD/Peak 34%7/10

Summary

Rude-Ale is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #2286 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $73,481.51. Over 579 days, Rude-Ale has completed 5,045 trades across 230 markets, generating a total trading volume of nearly $4.9 million. Despite a solid win rate of 58.6% and a very good Smart Score of 74/100, their portfolio value currently stands at $139,219.64 and shows a downward equity trend.

Rude-Ale tends to favor a diverse range of markets, with a focus on frequent trading rather than niche specialization, as evidenced by the large number of trades and markets engaged. The trader’s sell percentage is relatively low at 30%, indicating a longer holding period on positions. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.20 and profit factor below 1 (0.47) suggest a moderate risk profile with returns that may not fully compensate for the risk taken. Rude-Ale shows no engagement in weather markets and operates more like a human trader with a Bot Score of 25/100.

The key strengths for Rude-Ale include consistent profitability over an extended period, a strong win streak badge, and the ability to scale trades with a large volume. However, the declining equity trend and low profit factor highlight potential concerns regarding sustainability and risk management. The relatively brief max drawdown duration is positive but should be monitored alongside the downward portfolio trend for signs of increasing volatility or losses.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 82%
Profitable
PnL $+73,482
DCA Master
avg 15.3 entries/market
Win Streak
24 wins in a row
Whale
$3,014,330
Consistent
33/42 days
High Roller
$5,206/day

Categories

6
🏛️ POLITICS#834$59,993Vol: $4,479,531
🎭 CULTURE#840$9,336Vol: $248,136
📈 ECONOMICS#1,185$3,561Vol: $145,562
SPORTS#37,170$899Vol: $4,328
💻 TECH#5,938$92Vol: $3,996
📢 MENTIONS#165,098$-400Vol: $2,673

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$73,482
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$4,884,226
Total Redeem
$1,316,393
Portfolio
$139,220
Predictions
230
total markets
Trades
3520B / 1525S
Daily Volume
$5,206
Account Age
602d
since Nov 22, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-79
Vol: $0
Week
$-770
Vol: $0
Month
$3,039
Vol: $3,711
All Time
$73,482
Vol: $4,884,226

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
83%
135W / 28L events
Realized PnL
$116,299
Win Rate
59%
126W / 88L
Profit Factor
0.47x
Avg Win
$2,645
Avg Loss
$-8,033

Top Winners

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$189,651
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$30,011
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$16,904
Netanyahu out by March 31?$13,265
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$10,211
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?$6,398
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$3,703
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?$3,270
US forces enter Iran by March 31?$2,986
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2,708

Top Losers

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?$-120,598
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?$-89,096
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?$-44,398
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?$-41,499
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?$-33,042
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$-31,853
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?$-25,992
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31?$-22,641
U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?$-16,651
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?$-14,783

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.203
Sortino
0.311
HHI
275
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.403
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
7.9%
Top-5 markets
28.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
13.2
Active
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
6.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.3h
between trades
Night Trading
22%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.03
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.7

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 366s — typical for humanSize CV 4.03 — diverse, typical for human22% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.93 — human randomness13 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
15.3
Heavy DCA
<=1
40 entries
<=2
67 entries
<=5
107 entries
<=10
153 entries
<=20
189 entries
<=50
213 entries
>50
17 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)4.2%
Mid (20-55c)11.1%
High (>55c)84.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 25.4%

New York City$-31,853
Other$-341,759

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
164

Single bracket

<=1
138 brackets
<=2
149 brackets
<=3
156 brackets
<=4
159 brackets
<=5
161 brackets
<=8
163 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/16/2025, 12:36:25 PM2 trades$22 min
5/16/2025, 12:50:03 PM1 trades$4,0000 min
5/16/2025, 1:01:13 PM1 trades$10,0000 min
5/16/2025, 1:06:33 PM2 trades$27,4802 min
5/16/2025, 1:32:59 PM3 trades$4520 min
5/16/2025, 2:55:39 PM1 trades$4,0000 min
5/16/2025, 3:44:43 PM1 trades$7,9990 min
5/16/2025, 4:40:05 PM1 trades$4,0000 min
5/17/2025, 5:14:53 AM2 trades$2,1001 min
5/17/2025, 5:27:23 AM1 trades$4,5000 min
5/17/2025, 12:35:15 PM2 trades$2,6003 min
5/17/2025, 5:53:59 PM1 trades$4,5000 min
5/18/2025, 2:54:27 PM1 trades$1,8600 min
5/19/2025, 4:42:59 AM1 trades$3,0000 min
5/19/2025, 7:02:09 AM1 trades$2,0000 min
5/19/2025, 1:35:28 PM1 trades$1,4800 min
5/22/2025, 4:34:36 AM1 trades$3,0000 min
6/2/2025, 6:22:32 AM3 trades$6,4681 min
6/2/2025, 9:34:32 AM1 trades$5300 min
6/22/2025, 9:50:02 AM11 trades$7567 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
08-31
11-27
01-25
03-31
04-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
30.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 15.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event