Polydata

@Rundown-Regard

#3,01881

0x39aaed185b92e99a78249610cc14a589b764583c

256d· 12878 markets · 3786 tradesVol: $15,629,9732026-06-16T19:42
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

81
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 54%12/20
Profit Factor 26.28x15/15
Sharpe 0.2915/15
Sortino 11.19810/10
EV $+10.94510/10
HHI 7249/10
Profit Days 90%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Rundown-Regard is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #3018 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $52,445.97. Over 458 days, they have executed 3,786 trades across 443 markets, accumulating a total volume exceeding $15.6 million. Their portfolio value stands at $111,538.80, and they maintain a very good Smart Score of 81/100, reflecting consistent performance. Despite a relatively low Sharpe ratio of 0.29, Rundown-Regard has avoided significant drawdowns, with a max drawdown duration of zero days.

This trader demonstrates a preference for diverse markets, avoiding weather-related ones entirely, and shows a contrarian style combined with elements of dollar-cost averaging, as indicated by their badges. Rundown-Regard’s 86.1% win rate and 3.28 profit factor suggest a strong risk-adjusted approach, favoring steady gains over high-risk bets. Their zero sell percentage and diamond hands badge imply a tendency to hold positions rather than frequently closing trades, which aligns with a patient, long-term trading style.

Rundown-Regard’s strengths lie in their high win rate, disciplined risk management, and stable equity trend, which contribute to their steady profitability on Polymarket. However, their low Sharpe ratio indicates limited volatility-adjusted returns, and the semi-bot trading style might expose them to systematic risks or occasional manual errors. Overall, Rundown-Regard balances consistent gains with cautious risk-taking, making them a reliable but not overly aggressive trader.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

10
Profitable
PnL $+52,446
Lottery Player
54% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
71% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
DCA Master
avg 8.5 entries/market
Hedger
avg 5.5 brackets/event
Win Streak
28 wins in a row
Whale
$144,733
Consistent
108/120 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
CRYPTO#11,280$4,000Vol: $5,100,252
🎭 CULTURE#1,013$7,714Vol: $3,722,572
🏛️ POLITICS#3,244$11,764Vol: $3,161,789
SPORTS#2,951$15,349Vol: $2,342,655
📈 ECONOMICS#2,496$1,105Vol: $448,968
🌤️ WEATHER#952$1,659Vol: $151,344
💰 FINANCE#10,217$249Vol: $130,024
💻 TECH#7,083$64Vol: $16,497
📢 MENTIONS#1,208$1,030Vol: $15,163

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$52,446
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$15,629,973
Total Redeem
$19,987
Portfolio
$111,539
Predictions
12878
total markets
Trades
3785B / 1S
Daily Volume
$316
Account Age
256d
since Oct 3, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$868
Vol: $59,605
Week
$1,819
Vol: $435,639
Month
$13,442
Vol: $2,353,606
All Time
$52,446
Vol: $15,629,973

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
82%
196W / 42L events
Realized PnL
$897,630
Win Rate
86%
62W / 10L
Profit Factor
3.28x
Avg Win
$65
Avg Loss
$-123

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,756 (98.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will 9z qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs?$1,873
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?$629
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 20$254
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?$241
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs?$187
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?$104
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m a$98
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16?$86
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?$84
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?$76

Top Losers

Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?$-647
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?$-354
Will G2 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs?$-108
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026$-104
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?$-9
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne M$-2
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?$-2
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?$-1
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta$-1
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.291
Sortino
11.198
HHI
724
Moderate
EV per $1
$10.945
Kelly %
75.8%
Half-Kelly
37.9%
Top-1 market
13.8%
Top-5 markets
57.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
20.3
Active
Markets / Day
2.4
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
14s
between trades
Avg Gap
46.4m
between trades
Night Trading
12%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.46
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.5

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 14s — suspiciously fastSize CV 2.46 — diverse, typical for human12% at night — normal sleep pattern23/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.23 — human randomness20 trades/day — suspiciously high686 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
8.5
Active DCA
<=1
124 entries
<=2
185 entries
<=5
285 entries
<=10
378 entries
<=20
402 entries
<=50
418 entries
>50
25 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)54.2%
Mid (20-55c)17.6%
High (>55c)28.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 36.6%

Other$2,798
Los Angeles$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
5.5
Events covered
80

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
18 brackets
<=2
22 brackets
<=3
30 brackets
<=4
41 brackets
<=5
45 brackets
<=8
66 brackets
>8
14 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/11/2025, 10:25:56 PM3 trades$240 min
12/18/2025, 4:58:07 PM1 trades$70 min
12/19/2025, 8:02:37 PM11 trades$721 min
12/23/2025, 6:42:51 AM2 trades$240 min
12/29/2025, 3:40:57 PM8 trades$140 min
12/29/2025, 5:24:35 PM8 trades$100 min
12/29/2025, 5:44:07 PM8 trades$130 min
12/29/2025, 6:52:23 PM8 trades$120 min
12/29/2025, 7:22:29 PM8 trades$160 min
12/29/2025, 11:06:09 PM16 trades$221 min
12/30/2025, 5:05:25 PM4 trades$3750 min
12/30/2025, 5:46:13 PM2 trades$300 min
12/31/2025, 7:41:57 AM8 trades$320 min
1/1/2026, 11:11:15 AM4 trades$812 min
1/1/2026, 2:59:51 PM20 trades$1,1071 min
1/1/2026, 3:46:23 PM4 trades$3420 min
1/5/2026, 7:10:15 AM2 trades$900 min
1/12/2026, 5:50:42 AM4 trades$4650 min
1/16/2026, 8:39:58 PM10 trades$1,3224 min
1/24/2026, 3:26:12 PM7 trades$4310 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
12-23
01-28
03-01
04-01
06-16
06-17

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 8.5/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 5.5 br/event