Polydata

@Scarce-Capability

#2,469,37484

0xd46a1cc5d486f1a12b1cd885fe5011f08e46ae39

96d· 365 markets · 620 tradesVol: $13,607 @WahyuTr588915852026-06-08T17:50
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

84
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 56%13/20
Profit Factor 3.48x15/15
Sharpe 0.4398/15
Sortino 8.02010/10
EV $+5.87510/10
HHI 5610/10
Profit Days 60%7/10
DD/Peak 4%10/10

Summary

Scarce-Capability is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with 620 trades across 323 markets over 119 days. Despite a net loss of $177.90, this trader holds a Smart Score of 84/100, placing them in the "Very Good" category, though their global PnL rank is relatively low at #2,469,374. Their total trading volume is $13,607, and their portfolio value currently stands at zero.

The trading style of Scarce-Capability appears measured and balanced, reflected in a win rate of 59.5% and a profit factor near 5, indicating profitable trades significantly outweigh losses. They tend to avoid weather markets entirely, focusing on other event types with a sell percentage of 34%, suggesting a mix of holding and timely exits. Their Sharpe Ratio of 0.44 and zero-day max drawdown duration point to moderate risk tolerance and effective loss management. Scarce-Capability’s badges like Contrarian and Cool Head imply a disciplined approach and ability to maintain composure during streaks.

Key strengths for Scarce-Capability include a strong win rate and profit factor, suggesting solid trade selection and execution on Polymarket. However, the negative net PnL and zero portfolio value highlight challenges in turning volume into consistent profits. Their low bot score suggests manual trading, which may limit speed and reaction time compared to algorithmic competitors. Overall, Scarce-Capability demonstrates potential but faces risks related to capital growth and market timing.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

3
Contrarian
95% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
Cool Head
DD 4%

Categories

4
CRYPTO#1,423,632$-172Vol: $13,413
🎭 CULTURE#635,309$-6Vol: $176
SPORTS#666,253$-0Vol: $16
💰 FINANCE#290,959$0Vol: $2

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-178
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$13,607
Total Redeem
$121
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
365
total markets
Trades
412B / 208S
Daily Volume
$16
Account Age
96d
since Mar 4, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$-0
Vol: $0
Month
$-0
Vol: $0
All Time
$-178
Vol: $13,607

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
56%
152W / 119L events
Realized PnL
$782
Win Rate
59%
132W / 90L
Profit Factor
4.99x
Avg Win
$6
Avg Loss
$-2

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $87 (14.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$32
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$28
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$27
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$25
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$25
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$23
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$23
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$23
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$22
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$21

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$-3

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.439
Sortino
8.020
HHI
56
Diversified
EV per $1
$5.875
Kelly %
36.8%
Half-Kelly
18.4%
Top-1 market
2.7%
Top-5 markets
8.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
7.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
3.7
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
17.7m
between trades
Night Trading
27%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.94
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.7

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 148s — typical for humanSize CV 0.94 — diverse, typical for human27% at night — bot never sleeps21/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.61 — semi-mechanical

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.3
Single entry
<=1
248 entries
<=2
311 entries
<=5
323 entries
<=10
323 entries
<=20
323 entries
<=50
323 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)19.4%
Mid (20-55c)76.2%
High (>55c)4.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 45.9%

Other$608
Munich$-0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
321

Single bracket

<=1
319 brackets
<=2
321 brackets
<=3
321 brackets
<=4
321 brackets
<=5
321 brackets
<=8
321 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/4/2026, 9:54:57 PM1 trades$10 min
3/4/2026, 10:02:25 PM1 trades$10 min
3/4/2026, 10:18:17 PM2 trades$32 min
3/4/2026, 10:36:39 PM1 trades$20 min
3/4/2026, 10:47:49 PM1 trades$20 min
3/4/2026, 11:10:51 PM1 trades$50 min
3/4/2026, 11:20:47 PM1 trades$50 min
3/4/2026, 11:30:25 PM1 trades$150 min
3/4/2026, 11:35:57 PM1 trades$180 min
3/5/2026, 12:48:21 AM1 trades$30 min
3/5/2026, 1:03:19 AM2 trades$124 min
3/5/2026, 1:12:15 AM5 trades$7211 min
3/5/2026, 1:38:09 AM1 trades$150 min
3/5/2026, 1:43:45 AM1 trades$50 min
3/5/2026, 1:55:59 AM4 trades$218 min
3/5/2026, 2:26:53 AM3 trades$174 min
3/5/2026, 2:37:49 AM4 trades$4914 min
3/5/2026, 7:07:15 AM2 trades$81 min
3/5/2026, 7:37:15 AM1 trades$70 min
3/5/2026, 7:46:09 AM1 trades$150 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-04
03-10
03-20
04-17
05-11
05-22
07-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
33.5% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event