Polydata
Scarce-Dividend

@Scarce-Dividend

#2,521,20013

0x79e9c535fcb5681472ca1c6deca8485e047680b1

165d· 230 markets · 609 tradesVol: $41,441 @KavitaKuma485382026-05-22T01:37
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

13
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 25%0/20
Profit Factor 0.87x1/15
HHI 9810/10
Profit Days 39%2/10
DD/Peak 366%0/10

Summary

Scarce-Dividend is a relatively low-ranked trader on Polymarket, positioned at #2,521,200 globally with a net loss of $382.39. Over 335 days, this trader has executed 609 trades across 230 markets, accumulating a total trading volume of $41,441. Despite the high activity level, Scarce-Dividend’s portfolio value remains modest at $108, and their overall performance metrics, including a 23.2% win rate and a profit factor below 1 (0.86), reflect beginner-level results.

In terms of strategy, Scarce-Dividend shows a tendency towards high-frequency trading given the number of trades and markets engaged. The low sell percentage (13%) and absence of weather market involvement suggest a focus on non-weather event markets. The trader’s profile aligns with a contrarian and lottery player style, indicating a willingness to take speculative, high-risk positions rather than steady, low-risk bets. The negative Sharpe ratio and low smart score reinforce a high-risk, low-reward trading pattern that lacks consistent timing or risk management.

Scarce-Dividend’s main strength lies in their active participation and an upward equity trend, which hints at some portfolio growth potential. However, the low win rate, negative profit factor, and beginner smart score present significant risks, including probable capital erosion over time. The data suggest Scarce-Dividend is still developing a profitable approach on Polymarket and should be mindful of volatility and drawdowns inherent in their contrarian and speculative trading style.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

2
Lottery Player
59% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
90% entries <$0.50

Categories

4
🎭 CULTURE#744,344$-82Vol: $24,260
SPORTS#1,560,187$-283Vol: $17,019
CRYPTO#746,314$-0Vol: $138
💰 FINANCE#520,452$-7Vol: $10

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-382
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$41,441
Total Redeem
$1,366
Portfolio
$108
Predictions
230
total markets
Trades
529B / 80S
Daily Volume
$14
Account Age
165d
since Dec 8, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $108
Week
$58
Vol: $1,608
Month
$-70
Vol: $6,486
All Time
$-382
Vol: $41,441

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
44%
50W / 64L events
Realized PnL
$-381
Win Rate
23%
51W / 168L
Profit Factor
0.86x
Avg Win
$45
Avg Loss
$-16

Top Winners

Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner$225
Open Sud de France: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Pablo Carreno Busta$168
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 202$167
Ostrava Open, Qualification: Susan Bandecchi vs Anna Siskova$145
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026$129
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 202$109
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev$97
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 202$93
Open Sud de France, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Clement Ch$79
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 202$79

Top Losers

Ostrava Open: Dalma Galfi vs Tereza Martincova$-159
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Paula Badosa vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich$-101
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Sara Bejlek$-99
Ostrava Open: Rebecca Sramkova vs Linda Fruhvirtova$-99
Open Sud de France: Ugo Humbert vs Adrian Mannarino$-77
Delray Beach Open: Nuno Borges vs Coleman Wong$-72
Les Sables d'Olonne: Greet Minnen vs Camilla Rosatello$-71
Transylvania Open: Daria Snigur vs Jaqueline Cristian$-67
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Patrick Kypson vs Daniel Merida $-64
Transylvania Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Olga Danilovic$-59

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.093
Sortino
-0.125
HHI
98
Diversified
EV per $1
$-3.511
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.3%
Top-5 markets
11.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
5.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
2.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
12.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.1h
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.40
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 768s — typical for humanSize CV 1.40 — diverse, typical for human21% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.93 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.3
Moderate DCA
<=1
123 entries
<=2
162 entries
<=5
213 entries
<=10
228 entries
<=20
230 entries
<=50
230 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)58.6%
Mid (20-55c)36.5%
High (>55c)4.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 100%

Lucknow$78
Madrid$-10
Miami$-25
Dallas$-36
Other$-391

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2
Events covered
115

Moderate coverage

<=1
99 brackets
<=2
99 brackets
<=3
99 brackets
<=4
100 brackets
<=5
103 brackets
<=8
108 brackets
>8
7 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/28/2026, 2:16:49 AM1 trades$20 min
1/29/2026, 12:03:34 PM1 trades$100 min
1/30/2026, 5:27:36 AM1 trades$200 min
1/30/2026, 6:09:36 AM1 trades$40 min
1/30/2026, 6:25:30 AM1 trades$1210 min
1/30/2026, 11:24:52 AM1 trades$100 min
1/30/2026, 11:50:18 AM5 trades$150 min
1/30/2026, 1:05:56 PM1 trades$200 min
1/30/2026, 1:17:20 PM1 trades$320 min
1/30/2026, 2:08:18 PM1 trades$230 min
1/30/2026, 3:57:10 PM1 trades$2500 min
1/31/2026, 8:57:32 AM1 trades$250 min
1/31/2026, 9:33:26 AM1 trades$200 min
1/31/2026, 10:32:28 AM1 trades$110 min
1/31/2026, 10:54:18 AM1 trades$200 min
1/31/2026, 11:12:42 AM1 trades$1000 min
1/31/2026, 12:12:42 PM1 trades$30 min
1/31/2026, 5:13:06 PM1 trades$200 min
1/31/2026, 5:19:56 PM1 trades$200 min
1/31/2026, 5:32:46 PM2 trades$153 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-31
02-15
03-04
03-25
04-17
05-08

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
13.1% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2 br/event