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Scarce-Dividend

@Scarce-Dividend

#2,753,56686

0x79e9c535fcb5681472ca1c6deca8485e047680b1

209d· 359 markets · 1005 tradesVol: $56,113 @KavitaKuma485382026-07-03T03:38
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

86
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 48%9/20
Profit Factor 6.47x15/15
Sharpe 0.61412/15
Sortino 5.15010/10
EV $+0.56710/10
HHI 7010/10
Profit Days 71%10/10
DD/Peak 2%10/10

Summary

Scarce-Dividend is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having executed 1,005 trades across 359 markets over 328 days. Despite a high total volume of $56,113, their net profit and loss stands at a negative $513.32, placing them at rank #2,753,566 globally. The trader holds an Elite Smart Score of 86/100, indicating strong analytical ability, but their portfolio value is currently zero, reflecting no open positions.

The trading style of Scarce-Dividend appears diversified, with a preference for a broad range of markets rather than any specific niche, as shown by their 359 unique markets traded. Their win rate is slightly below 50% at 47.3%, but they maintain a high profit factor of 5.90, suggesting profitable trades are significantly larger than losses. Scarce-Dividend shows a conservative sell percentage of 20% and has a low bot score of 15, confirming manual, human-led trading. The stable equity trend and a Sharpe ratio of 0.61 indicate moderate risk-taking with consistent performance over time.

Scarce-Dividend’s strengths include a consistent and cool-headed approach, as highlighted by badges for being a contrarian and maintaining win streaks. However, the negative net PnL and flat equity curve suggest challenges in turning volume into sustained profitability. Their zero max drawdown duration points to effective risk control, but the overall negative returns and a modest win rate indicate potential difficulties in capitalizing on Polymarket opportunities consistently.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Lottery Player
44% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
91% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
13 wins in a row
Consistent
55/77 days
Cool Head
DD 2%

Categories

4
SPORTS#1,704,023$-422Vol: $31,499
🎭 CULTURE#761,108$-74Vol: $24,451
CRYPTO#775,596$-0Vol: $138
💰 FINANCE#545,044$-7Vol: $10

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-513
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$56,113
Total Redeem
$1,776
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
359
total markets
Trades
800B / 205S
Daily Volume
$25
Account Age
209d
since Dec 8, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$49
Vol: $1,859
Month
$-3
Vol: $1,172
All Time
$-513
Vol: $56,113

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
69%
117W / 53L events
Realized PnL
$2,995
Win Rate
47%
116W / 128L
Profit Factor
5.9x
Avg Win
$28
Avg Loss
$-4

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $559 (20.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner$225
Open Sud de France: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Pablo Carreno Busta$168
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 202$167
Ostrava Open, Qualification: Susan Bandecchi vs Anna Siskova$145
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026$129
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton$107
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev$97
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?$96
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 202$93
Open Sud de France, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Clement Ch$79

Top Losers

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 202$-26
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea$-11
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Chidekh vs Aziz Dougaz$-11
Wimbledon WTA: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu$-11
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 202$-11
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 202$-11
Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Elena Rybakina$-10
Will "The Rip" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (Februa$-10
Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina$-10
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse$-10

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.614
Sortino
5.150
HHI
70
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.567
Kelly %
6.5%
Half-Kelly
3.3%
Top-1 market
3%
Top-5 markets
10.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
6.5
Moderate
Markets / Day
2.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
13.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.0h
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.61
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 794s — typical for humanSize CV 1.61 — diverse, typical for human15% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.98 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.2
Moderate DCA
<=1
189 entries
<=2
254 entries
<=5
336 entries
<=10
357 entries
<=20
359 entries
<=50
359 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)44.4%
Mid (20-55c)51.2%
High (>55c)4.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 100%

Other$2,628
Lucknow$78
Milan$11
Taipei$5
Miami$2
Dallas$0
Madrid$-10

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
244

Single bracket

<=1
228 brackets
<=2
228 brackets
<=3
228 brackets
<=4
229 brackets
<=5
232 brackets
<=8
237 brackets
>8
7 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/28/2026, 2:16:49 AM1 trades$20 min
1/29/2026, 12:03:34 PM1 trades$100 min
1/30/2026, 5:27:36 AM1 trades$200 min
1/30/2026, 6:09:36 AM1 trades$40 min
1/30/2026, 6:25:30 AM1 trades$1210 min
1/30/2026, 11:24:52 AM1 trades$100 min
1/30/2026, 11:50:18 AM5 trades$150 min
1/30/2026, 1:05:56 PM1 trades$200 min
1/30/2026, 1:17:20 PM1 trades$320 min
1/30/2026, 2:08:18 PM1 trades$230 min
1/30/2026, 3:57:10 PM1 trades$2500 min
1/31/2026, 8:57:32 AM1 trades$250 min
1/31/2026, 9:33:26 AM1 trades$200 min
1/31/2026, 10:32:28 AM1 trades$110 min
1/31/2026, 10:54:18 AM1 trades$200 min
1/31/2026, 11:12:42 AM1 trades$1000 min
1/31/2026, 12:12:42 PM1 trades$30 min
1/31/2026, 5:13:06 PM1 trades$200 min
1/31/2026, 5:19:56 PM1 trades$200 min
1/31/2026, 5:32:46 PM2 trades$153 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-07
03-01
04-07
05-04
06-05
06-20
07-06

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
20.4% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event