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Scientific-Doubter

@Scientific-Doubter

#5,65091

0x1537ed4d534ec88634af690b9b03145dbcaec480

474d· 366 markets · 2528 tradesVol: $1,742,9912026-06-30T04:17
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

91
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 96%20/20
Profit Factor 9.77x15/15
Sharpe 0.3396/15
Sortino 1423593.06210/10
EV $+7.96210/10
HHI 13610/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Scientific-Doubter is a consistently active trader on Polymarket, with 2,528 trades executed over 760 days. Ranked #5650 globally by net PnL, they have generated $26,667.43 in profits from nearly $1.74 million in total volume. Their Smart Score of 91/100 places them in the elite category, reflecting a strong performance and disciplined approach.

This trader favors a diverse selection of markets, having participated in 279 different ones, indicating a broad interest rather than niche specialization. Scientific-Doubter’s win rate is notably high at 85.4%, but the profit factor of 0.74 suggests moderate profitability per trade. Their trading style appears balanced with a 46% sell rate and an upward equity trend, implying steady accumulation rather than aggressive flipping. The low bot score confirms manual trading, while their Sharpe ratio of 0.34 points to moderate risk-adjusted returns.

Scientific-Doubter’s strengths lie in their consistent performance and disciplined risk management, evidenced by a zero-day max drawdown duration and steady portfolio growth. However, the relatively low profit factor and Sharpe ratio indicate that while their trades frequently win, the gains per trade are modest, which may limit scalability. Overall, their approach on Polymarket reflects a reliable, patient trader with a strong track record but some constraints in maximizing profit efficiency.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 96%
Profitable
PnL $+26,667
DCA Master
avg 5.3 entries/market
Win Streak
46 wins in a row
Whale
$535,226
Consistent
94/94 days

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#1,097$44,868Vol: $1,251,760
📈 ECONOMICS#2,325$1,293Vol: $153,303
🎭 CULTURE#802,096$-6,618Vol: $146,948
SPORTS#1,771,115$-13,182Vol: $93,749
CRYPTO#37,969$610Vol: $64,523
🌤️ WEATHER#262,854$-41Vol: $10,894
💰 FINANCE#20,833$73Vol: $7,881
📢 MENTIONS#164,359$-292Vol: $5,853
💻 TECH#18,618$8Vol: $4,003

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$26,667
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,742,991
Total Redeem
$389,579
Portfolio
$8,805
Predictions
366
total markets
Trades
1366B / 1162S
Daily Volume
$704
Account Age
474d
since Mar 30, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-236
Vol: $0
Week
$201
Vol: $0
Month
$-3,769
Vol: $707
All Time
$26,667
Vol: $1,742,991

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
193W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$141,827
Win Rate
85%
187W / 32L
Profit Factor
0.74x
Avg Win
$336
Avg Loss
$-2,660

Top Winners

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$9,426
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?$7,836
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03?$4,100
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting$3,328
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$3,049
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian president$2,673
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?$2,544
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?$2,489
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meetin$2,412
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13?$2,000

Top Losers

Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$-18,850
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday?$-12,349
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025?$-8,355
Will Trump visit Saudi Arabia before July?$-7,640
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?$-6,535
Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday?$-3,828
Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?$-3,035
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? $-2,876
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?$-2,362
New Pope in 2025?$-2,201

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.339
Sortino
inf
HHI
136
Diversified
EV per $1
$7.962
Kelly %
23.2%
Half-Kelly
11.6%
Top-1 market
4.4%
Top-5 markets
15.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
5.8
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
52.5m
between trades
Night Trading
14%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.67
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.6

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 210s — typical for humanSize CV 2.67 — diverse, typical for human13% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.85 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
5.3
Active DCA
<=1
134 entries
<=2
173 entries
<=5
212 entries
<=10
238 entries
<=20
250 entries
<=50
256 entries
>50
4 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)6.4%
Mid (20-55c)32.7%
High (>55c)60.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 54.8%

Madrid$1,320
Up or Down$400
New York City$226
Paris$8
Other$-24,237

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
200

Single bracket

<=1
160 brackets
<=2
188 brackets
<=3
194 brackets
<=4
196 brackets
<=5
197 brackets
<=8
198 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/2/2025, 10:36:41 AM2 trades$5932 min
4/2/2025, 12:19:49 PM1 trades$170 min
4/3/2025, 9:46:07 AM1 trades$20 min
4/3/2025, 10:32:14 AM1 trades$10 min
4/8/2025, 2:24:18 PM1 trades$790 min
4/10/2025, 1:54:53 PM3 trades$8632 min
4/10/2025, 2:12:09 PM5 trades$9172 min
4/13/2025, 8:04:11 AM1 trades$2350 min
4/13/2025, 1:30:35 PM1 trades$2990 min
4/13/2025, 8:38:25 PM4 trades$2,8766 min
4/14/2025, 7:25:40 PM1 trades$9080 min
4/23/2025, 7:48:24 PM2 trades$2982 min
4/23/2025, 8:32:10 PM2 trades$2161 min
4/23/2025, 9:49:09 PM1 trades$1090 min
4/24/2025, 8:46:38 AM1 trades$1450 min
4/24/2025, 10:47:02 AM1 trades$70 min
4/24/2025, 12:44:25 PM1 trades$290 min
4/24/2025, 12:51:31 PM1 trades$9700 min
4/24/2025, 12:58:11 PM2 trades$731 min
4/24/2025, 1:41:23 PM1 trades$6570 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
05-09
07-25
10-15
12-10
03-08
07-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
46% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 5.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event