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@Scientific-Elbow

#83830

0xbf5bf2730e1d679eb9d6ee37ef48d03959e823ca

556d· 406 markets · 9324 tradesVol: $19,848,5652026-06-27T16:41
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.09x0/15
HHI 15310/10
Profit Days 28%0/10

Summary

Scientific-Elbow is an active trader on Polymarket, ranked #838 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 447 days, they have executed 9,324 trades across 316 markets, generating a net profit of $224,547.80 on a total volume of nearly $20 million. Despite the substantial profit, their Smart Score is below average at 30/100, and their portfolio value currently stands at $13,430. The trader’s Sharpe Ratio of -0.59 and a low profit factor of 0.09 indicate challenges in maintaining consistent risk-adjusted returns.

The trading style of Scientific-Elbow appears to be high-frequency and volume-intensive, with a preference for a wide range of markets rather than specialization, as evidenced by the 316 markets traded. Their win rate is 39.1%, which combined with a 40% sell percentage, suggests a willingness to take losses and cut positions. The trader’s timing does not follow a clear pattern of long-term holding, supported by a max drawdown duration of zero days and a downward equity trend, hinting at short-term or intraday strategies with significant risk exposure.

Scientific-Elbow’s strengths lie in their high activity level and ability to generate significant nominal profits, supported by badges like Sniper and High Roller. However, the negative Sharpe Ratio and declining equity trend highlight risk management weaknesses. The low profit factor and below-average Smart and Bot Scores suggest that despite their experience, Scientific-Elbow may struggle with consistency and volatility, which could pose risks for sustained performance on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+224,548
Win Streak
18 wins in a row
Whale
$10,139,907
High Roller
$22,684/day

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#391$127,529Vol: $9,840,119
🎭 CULTURE#139$49,268Vol: $6,497,577
SPORTS#2,320$20,707Vol: $1,092,550
CRYPTO#5,753$8,291Vol: $943,131
📈 ECONOMICS#950$4,902Vol: $482,761
💻 TECH#659$2,449Vol: $281,898
📢 MENTIONS#219$8,610Vol: $227,403
💰 FINANCE#24,725$52Vol: $304

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$224,548
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$19,848,565
Total Redeem
$2,742,247
Portfolio
$13,430
Predictions
406
total markets
Trades
5645B / 3679S
Daily Volume
$22,684
Account Age
556d
since Jan 8, 2025

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
117W / 1L events
Realized PnL
$1,100,970
Win Rate
39%
107W / 167L
Profit Factor
0.09x
Avg Win
$4,532
Avg Loss
$-32,495

Top Winners

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Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?$112,306
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?$48,285
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?$16,949
Will Finland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?$10,568
Will France win Eurovision 2025?$7,774
Will Czechia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?$5,583
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential $5,188
Will Finland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?$4,823
Will Israel be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F$4,520

Top Losers

Will the AFD be part of the next German government?$-264,584
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?$-229,546
Evidence released proving JFK assassination was an inside job by $-221,088
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential electio$-207,197
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?$-202,821
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?$-185,735
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?$-183,696
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?$-170,690
Trump releases Epstein list today?$-151,698
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?$-129,740

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.594
Sortino
-0.543
HHI
153
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.491
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
4%
Top-5 markets
16.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
60.9
Very active
Markets / Day
2.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
21.3m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.72
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
5 min
Avg Trades / Session
10.9

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 114s — typical for humanSize CV 3.72 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.94 — human randomness61 trades/day — mass trading

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
18.3
Heavy DCA
<=1
45 entries
<=2
74 entries
<=5
126 entries
<=10
176 entries
<=20
233 entries
<=50
287 entries
>50
22 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)17.5%
Mid (20-55c)12.4%
High (>55c)70.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 33.1%

Other$-4,941,738

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.6
Events covered
122

Moderate coverage

<=1
87 brackets
<=2
106 brackets
<=3
108 brackets
<=4
113 brackets
<=5
114 brackets
<=8
115 brackets
>8
7 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/8/2025, 6:24:06 AM2 trades$80,1630 min
1/8/2025, 11:32:38 AM12 trades$39,3891 min
1/11/2025, 12:45:59 AM8 trades$125,6595 min
1/11/2025, 12:56:50 AM21 trades$7,46713 min
1/11/2025, 1:15:51 AM132 trades$48,78484 min
1/11/2025, 2:49:49 AM31 trades$11,94119 min
1/11/2025, 3:20:27 AM7 trades$351 min
1/11/2025, 4:55:25 AM1 trades$127,0040 min
1/13/2025, 7:06:01 AM1 trades$2,3620 min
1/13/2025, 2:31:53 PM1 trades$7,8220 min
1/14/2025, 6:43:16 AM2 trades$6,4291 min
1/18/2025, 3:17:39 AM141 trades$13,78133 min
1/18/2025, 4:42:57 AM1 trades$12,8780 min
1/18/2025, 7:06:21 AM1 trades$7040 min
1/18/2025, 7:36:05 AM1 trades$2000 min
1/18/2025, 7:33:40 PM2 trades$31,0500 min
1/19/2025, 2:56:33 AM1 trades$4,9850 min
1/19/2025, 3:03:41 AM1 trades$4480 min
1/19/2025, 3:18:49 AM2 trades$4,9902 min
1/19/2025, 3:36:39 AM3 trades$20,6171 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
02-16
03-14
04-07
05-07
05-21
07-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
39.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 18.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.6 br/event