Polydata

@SeriouslySirius

#2638

0x16b29c50f2439faf627209b2ac0c7bbddaa8a881

228d· 6339 markets · 37220 tradesVol: $192,646,0252026-05-20T15:30
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

38
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 9%0/20
Profit Factor 1.20x5/15
Sharpe 0.1423/15
Sortino 0.3283/10
EV $+0.20410/10
HHI 3310/10
Profit Days 45%4/10
DD/Peak 53%3/10

Summary

SeriouslySirius is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranking 26th globally on the PnL leaderboard with a net profit of approximately $3.65 million. Over 83 days, they executed more than 37,000 trades across 2,621 markets, accumulating a total volume nearing $193 million. Despite the impressive scale and profits, their Smart Score is below average at 38/100, and their portfolio value currently stands at zero, suggesting all positions are closed or fully realized.

The trading style of SeriouslySirius appears automated, supported by a bot score of 70/100 and badges like "Bot" and "DCA Master." Their high win rate of 83.1% combined with a modest profit factor of 1.10 indicates a low-risk, consistent approach, likely involving frequent dollar-cost averaging and contrarian bets rather than big directional moves. The lack of weather market exposure and no recorded sell-offs further suggest a strategy focused on steady accumulation and holding, as highlighted by the "Diamond Hands" badge.

SeriouslySirius’ strengths include disciplined, automated execution with a strong win rate and stable equity trend without drawdown duration, which is unusual for high-volume traders. However, the low Sharpe ratio of 0.14 and a flat equity trend may point to limited upside volatility and possibly conservative returns relative to risk. The below-average Smart Score also raises questions about adaptability or optimal trade selection on Polymarket’s evolving platform.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Profitable
PnL $+3,648,172
Contrarian
62% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
DCA Master
avg 14.2 entries/market
Bot
Score 70/100
Win Streak
26 wins in a row
Whale
$26,208,869
High Roller
$315,770/day

Categories

1
SPORTS#15$3,648,172Vol: $192,646,025

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$3,648,172
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$192,646,025
Total Redeem
$1,600,782
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
6339
total markets
Trades
37220B / 0S
Daily Volume
$315,770
Account Age
228d
since Oct 3, 2025

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
13%
205W / 1378L events
Realized PnL
$29,603,094
Win Rate
83%
162W / 33L
Profit Factor
1.1x
Avg Win
$4,115
Avg Loss
$-18,389

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $144,839 (242% of PnL)

Top Winners

Nuggets vs. 76ers: O/U 228.5$88,269
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5$28,742
Utah vs. Rangers$27,828
Spread: Miami (-3.5)$23,430
Pistons vs. Cavaliers$22,497
Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5)$22,197
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-04?$21,843
Hornets vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5$20,665
Packers vs. Bears$17,439
Knicks vs. Pistons$15,828

Top Losers

Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)$-168,054
Spread: Lakers (-5.5)$-80,392
Warriors vs. Clippers$-58,534
Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)$-51,638
Lions vs. Bears$-46,189
Spread: Lakers (-6.5)$-31,982
Magic vs. Wizards$-21,545
Spread: Bills (-11.5)$-19,166
Cowboys vs. Giants$-18,116
Texans vs. Steelers$-16,746

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.142
Sortino
0.328
HHI
33
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.204
Kelly %
64.2%
Half-Kelly
32.1%
Top-1 market
1.7%
Top-5 markets
6.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
475.8
Very active
Markets / Day
33.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
28s
between trades
Avg Gap
3.6m
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.68
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
5 min
Avg Trades / Session
10.2

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 28s — typical for humanSize CV 2.68 — diverse, typical for human21% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.07 — human randomness476 trades/day — automation34 markets/day — mass coverage2678 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
14.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
699 entries
<=2
1053 entries
<=5
1553 entries
<=10
1906 entries
<=20
2201 entries
<=50
2459 entries
>50
162 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.8%
Mid (20-55c)86.8%
High (>55c)12.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 39.8%

Milan$57,229
Miami$23,982
Madrid$1,941
Paris$41
Toronto$0
Chicago$0
New York City$0
Houston$0
Los Angeles$0
Seattle$0
Other$-23,350

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.7
Events covered
1510

Single bracket

<=1
887 brackets
<=2
1234 brackets
<=3
1387 brackets
<=4
1452 brackets
<=5
1494 brackets
<=8
1509 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/21/2025, 11:32:13 AM6 trades$5110 min
10/21/2025, 12:39:01 PM7 trades$6,0180 min
10/21/2025, 12:57:35 PM1 trades$1570 min
10/21/2025, 1:12:47 PM3 trades$2,3270 min
10/21/2025, 2:06:51 PM5 trades$13,1353 min
10/21/2025, 2:39:03 PM1 trades$100 min
10/21/2025, 3:14:19 PM1 trades$4,4430 min
10/21/2025, 3:20:43 PM188 trades$70,93987 min
10/21/2025, 4:54:17 PM2 trades$6442 min
10/21/2025, 5:04:53 PM1 trades$1,0440 min
10/21/2025, 5:10:41 PM1 trades$660 min
10/21/2025, 5:23:29 PM3 trades$1316 min
10/21/2025, 5:34:41 PM1 trades$4,9850 min
10/21/2025, 5:49:37 PM1 trades$200 min
10/21/2025, 5:57:59 PM71 trades$12,49630 min
10/21/2025, 6:51:43 PM32 trades$25,8148 min
10/21/2025, 8:32:55 PM1 trades$260 min
10/21/2025, 10:07:37 PM1 trades$9,6090 min
10/21/2025, 10:36:39 PM12 trades$7,03011 min
10/21/2025, 10:52:50 PM20 trades$10,86613 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-21
11-04
11-18
12-02
12-16
12-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 14.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.7 br/event