Polydata

@SeriouslySirius

#3538

0x16b29c50f2439faf627209b2ac0c7bbddaa8a881

270d· 6339 markets · 36602 tradesVol: $192,646,0252026-06-30T03:48
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

38
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 9%0/20
Profit Factor 1.20x5/15
Sharpe 0.1423/15
Sortino 0.3283/10
EV $+0.20410/10
HHI 3310/10
Profit Days 45%4/10
DD/Peak 53%3/10

Summary

SeriouslySirius is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked 35th on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $3.65 million. Over 251 days, they have executed 36,602 trades across 2,574 markets, generating a total volume of nearly $193 million. Despite this impressive scale, their Smart Score is below average at 38/100, and their portfolio value currently stands at zero, suggesting profits have been realized or withdrawn rather than held in position.

The trading style of SeriouslySirius leans heavily on automation, as indicated by a strong bot score of 70/100 and badges like "DCA Master" and "Bot." They maintain a high win rate of 83.5%, though the profit factor of 1.06 and a low Sharpe ratio of 0.14 point to relatively modest returns per trade with low volatility. Their approach appears contrarian and disciplined, avoiding weather markets entirely and never selling short, which aligns with a risk-averse profile focused on steady gains rather than aggressive speculation.

SeriouslySirius’s key strengths include consistency and volume, reflected in their ability to generate profits steadily without long drawdowns. However, the flat equity trend and low Sharpe ratio might indicate limited upside potential and vulnerability to market shifts. Polymarket traders following SeriouslySirius should be aware that while their strategy minimizes large losses, it may also cap significant growth opportunities over time.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Profitable
PnL $+3,648,172
Contrarian
62% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
DCA Master
avg 14.2 entries/market
Bot
Score 70/100
Win Streak
26 wins in a row
Whale
$25,837,916
High Roller
$103,054/day

Categories

1
SPORTS#22$3,648,172Vol: $192,646,025

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$3,648,172
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$192,646,025
Total Redeem
$1,600,782
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
6339
total markets
Trades
36602B / 0S
Daily Volume
$103,054
Account Age
270d
since Oct 3, 2025

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
13%
205W / 1378L events
Realized PnL
$29,603,094
Win Rate
84%
157W / 31L
Profit Factor
1.06x
Avg Win
$4,057
Avg Loss
$-19,339

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $144,839 (386.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Nuggets vs. 76ers: O/U 228.5$88,269
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5$28,742
Utah vs. Rangers$27,828
Spread: Miami (-3.5)$23,430
Pistons vs. Cavaliers$22,497
Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5)$22,197
Hornets vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5$20,665
Packers vs. Bears$17,439
Knicks vs. Pistons$15,828
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07?$15,510

Top Losers

Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)$-168,054
Spread: Lakers (-5.5)$-80,392
Warriors vs. Clippers$-58,534
Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)$-51,638
Lions vs. Bears$-46,189
Spread: Lakers (-6.5)$-31,982
Magic vs. Wizards$-21,545
Spread: Bills (-11.5)$-19,166
Cowboys vs. Giants$-18,116
Texans vs. Steelers$-16,746

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.142
Sortino
0.328
HHI
33
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.204
Kelly %
65.4%
Half-Kelly
32.7%
Top-1 market
1.8%
Top-5 markets
6.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
146.0
Very active
Markets / Day
10.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
28s
between trades
Avg Gap
3.7m
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.68
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
5 min
Avg Trades / Session
10.2

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 28s — typical for humanSize CV 2.68 — diverse, typical for human21% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.08 — human randomness146 trades/day — automation10 markets/day — mass coverage2678 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
14.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
689 entries
<=2
1037 entries
<=5
1528 entries
<=10
1875 entries
<=20
2161 entries
<=50
2414 entries
>50
160 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.8%
Mid (20-55c)87%
High (>55c)12.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 39.5%

Milan$35,386
Miami$23,982
Madrid$1,941
Paris$41
Toronto$0
Chicago$0
New York City$0
Houston$0
Los Angeles$0
Seattle$0
Other$-23,877

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.7
Events covered
1497

Single bracket

<=1
892 brackets
<=2
1225 brackets
<=3
1381 brackets
<=4
1442 brackets
<=5
1483 brackets
<=8
1496 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/21/2025, 11:32:13 AM6 trades$5110 min
10/21/2025, 12:39:01 PM7 trades$6,0180 min
10/21/2025, 12:57:35 PM1 trades$1570 min
10/21/2025, 1:12:47 PM3 trades$2,3270 min
10/21/2025, 2:06:51 PM5 trades$13,1353 min
10/21/2025, 2:39:03 PM1 trades$100 min
10/21/2025, 3:14:19 PM1 trades$4,4430 min
10/21/2025, 3:20:43 PM188 trades$70,93987 min
10/21/2025, 4:54:17 PM2 trades$6442 min
10/21/2025, 5:04:53 PM1 trades$1,0440 min
10/21/2025, 5:10:41 PM1 trades$660 min
10/21/2025, 5:23:29 PM3 trades$1316 min
10/21/2025, 5:34:41 PM1 trades$4,9850 min
10/21/2025, 5:49:37 PM1 trades$200 min
10/21/2025, 5:57:59 PM71 trades$12,49630 min
10/21/2025, 6:51:43 PM32 trades$25,8148 min
10/21/2025, 8:32:55 PM1 trades$260 min
10/21/2025, 10:07:37 PM1 trades$9,6090 min
10/21/2025, 10:36:39 PM12 trades$7,03011 min
10/21/2025, 10:52:50 PM20 trades$10,86613 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-21
11-04
11-18
12-02
12-16
12-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 14.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.7 br/event