Polydata
Data is 5 days old — refreshing in background...

@Serpentine-Maggot

#2,31075

0x69645cea639e7a19cbde6c126a197bc1abafef53

487d· 2635 markets · 20836 tradesVol: $31,486,761 @PredictionYogi2026-05-16T08:42
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

75
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 98%20/20
Profit Factor 0.05x0/15
Sharpe 0.93915/15
Sortino 4113264.19310/10
HHI 8610/10
Profit Days 99%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Serpentine-Maggot is an experienced and active Polymarket trader, ranked #2310 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $63,785.03. Over 710 days, they have completed 20,836 trades across 423 markets, generating a total volume exceeding $31 million. Their Smart Score of 75 indicates very good trading skill, supported by a steady portfolio value around $6,060 and a Sharpe ratio close to 1, reflecting moderate risk-adjusted returns.

The trader’s strategy favors diversification, participating in a wide range of markets with a notable 16% focus on weather-related contracts. Serpentine-Maggot exhibits a balanced risk profile, maintaining a 55.2% win rate and a profit factor of 0.05, which suggests many small wins but limited overall profitability per trade. They tend to hold positions without prolonged drawdowns, as indicated by a zero-day maximum drawdown duration, and apply varied timing techniques including dollar-cost averaging, reflected in their "DCA Master" badge and a 31% sell percentage.

Serpentine-Maggot’s key strengths lie in high trade frequency, consistency, and adaptability across market types, leveraging a sniper-like precision for entries. However, their profit factor and flat equity trend imply challenges in scaling profits significantly. The relatively low Bot Score suggests mostly human-driven decisions, which may limit speed but enhance adaptability. Overall, their approach balances steady gains with manageable risk, though scalability and large profit capture remain areas for improvement.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 98%
Profitable
PnL $+63,785
DCA Master
avg 34.1 entries/market
Win Streak
40 wins in a row
Whale
$4,239,386
Consistent
177/178 days
High Roller
$5,971/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
🎭 CULTURE#94$64,403Vol: $21,699,341
🏛️ POLITICS#1,533,456$-3,353Vol: $3,855,576
CRYPTO#22,130$1,518Vol: $2,770,911
🌤️ WEATHER#561$2,556Vol: $1,002,752
SPORTS#1,610,080$-1,306Vol: $930,388
💻 TECH#229,440$-589Vol: $521,946
💰 FINANCE#556,189$-27Vol: $295,909
📢 MENTIONS#3,552$229Vol: $221,044
📈 ECONOMICS#9,710$119Vol: $75,057

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$63,785
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$31,486,761
Total Redeem
$460,133
Portfolio
$6,061
Predictions
2635
total markets
Trades
14423B / 6413S
Daily Volume
$5,971
Account Age
487d
since Jan 19, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-95
Vol: $15,172
Week
$696
Vol: $318,623
Month
$3,795
Vol: $919,867
All Time
$63,785
Vol: $31,486,761

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
219W / 2L events
Realized PnL
$732,311
Win Rate
55%
227W / 184L
Profit Factor
0.05x
Avg Win
$470
Avg Loss
$-11,142

Top Winners

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5$19,949
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 202$11,597
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 15 to January 17,$8,443
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$7,743
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?$7,049
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 8 to M$4,532
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 25–May 2?$4,040
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?$3,567
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?$3,184
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?$2,971

Top Losers

Will the government shutdown end November 12?$-42,191
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?$-34,840
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?$-29,364
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangal$-29,081
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9,$-28,917
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?$-28,566
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 23 to January 30,$-28,056
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?$-27,928
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 2$-27,530
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12$-27,420

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.939
Sortino
inf
HHI
86
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.460
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
4.5%
Top-5 markets
14.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
44.4
Active
Markets / Day
0.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
18.8m
between trades
Night Trading
24%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.42
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.1

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 82s — typical for humanSize CV 3.42 — diverse, typical for human24% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.04 — human randomness44 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
34.1
Heavy DCA
<=1
74 entries
<=2
106 entries
<=5
156 entries
<=10
203 entries
<=20
239 entries
<=50
306 entries
>50
117 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)12.1%
Mid (20-55c)24.1%
High (>55c)63.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 63%

London$1,151
Lucknow$204
Up or Down$161
Disclosure Bill$135
Miami$20
Sao Paulo$3
Atlanta$3
Houston$2
Toronto$0
Seattle$0
Mexico City$0
New York City$-7,772
Other$-1,937,292

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
299

Single bracket

<=1
226 brackets
<=2
269 brackets
<=3
288 brackets
<=4
296 brackets
<=5
296 brackets
<=8
298 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/31/2025, 3:14:42 PM2 trades$2,4411 min
1/31/2025, 3:25:40 PM2 trades$1,7511 min
1/31/2025, 3:56:08 PM4 trades$1,0484 min
1/31/2025, 4:22:16 PM1 trades$9190 min
2/4/2025, 11:05:10 AM1 trades$1580 min
2/4/2025, 3:12:44 PM1 trades$2210 min
2/5/2025, 3:37:30 AM2 trades$7510 min
2/5/2025, 3:43:58 AM2 trades$3,7680 min
2/5/2025, 5:43:41 AM1 trades$8910 min
2/5/2025, 6:53:39 AM1 trades$1580 min
2/5/2025, 7:44:32 AM1 trades$4800 min
2/5/2025, 8:27:01 AM1 trades$1,9580 min
2/5/2025, 11:55:37 AM9 trades$3,38513 min
2/5/2025, 12:19:45 PM1 trades$2490 min
2/5/2025, 12:26:03 PM4 trades$6473 min
2/5/2025, 12:55:57 PM2 trades$3,8950 min
2/5/2025, 1:28:09 PM1 trades$1,0050 min
2/5/2025, 2:47:25 PM1 trades$1,1460 min
2/5/2025, 3:30:55 PM1 trades$3,0830 min
2/6/2025, 5:39:21 AM1 trades$1,4670 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
06-22
10-31
01-16
02-24
04-04
05-14

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
16.3% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
30.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 34.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event