Polydata
Serpentine-Maggot

@Serpentine-Maggot

#2,45130

0x69645cea639e7a19cbde6c126a197bc1abafef53

525d· 3051 markets · 20925 tradesVol: $33,398,726 @PredictionYogi2026-06-27T13:55
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 94%20/20
Profit Factor 0.04x0/15
HHI 8510/10
Profit Days 22%0/10

Summary

Serpentine-Maggot is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #2451 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $68,392.04 accumulated over 523 days and 20,925 trades. Despite a high total trading volume of over $33 million and participation in 464 markets, their Smart Score is below average at 30/100, indicating room for improvement in trading efficiency. The trader maintains a small portfolio value of $2,441.73 with a negative Sharpe ratio of -1.04, suggesting that returns have been achieved with considerable volatility.

This trader favors weather-related markets, which constitute about 21% of their trades, and employs a relatively active trading style with a 54.1% win rate and a 29% sell percentage. Serpentine-Maggot’s trading approach appears to balance risk and reward but leans towards higher risk, as reflected in the low profit factor of 0.04 and a maximum drawdown duration of zero days. Their badges, including Sniper and DCA Master, suggest a focus on precise entry points and dollar-cost averaging techniques, while the upward equity trend indicates consistent gains over time.

Serpentine-Maggot’s key strengths lie in their ability to generate profits across a large number of trades and markets with an upward equity trend, signaling resilience and adaptation. However, the below-average Smart Score and negative Sharpe ratio highlight concerns about risk management and trade quality. The low profit factor and high volume with relatively modest portfolio growth could indicate inefficiencies or exposure to volatile market conditions, which may pose risks for sustaining long-term profitability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 94%
Profitable
PnL $+68,392
DCA Master
avg 32.2 entries/market
Win Streak
30 wins in a row
Whale
$4,295,594
High Roller
$8,213/day

Categories

9
🎭 CULTURE#88$68,158Vol: $23,335,031
🏛️ POLITICS#1,600,534$-3,323Vol: $3,888,156
CRYPTO#23,478$1,517Vol: $2,786,699
🌤️ WEATHER#559$3,182Vol: $1,143,887
SPORTS#1,721,404$-1,247Vol: $971,316
💻 TECH#240,662$-572Vol: $529,158
💰 FINANCE#20,677$74Vol: $323,442
📢 MENTIONS#3,456$250Vol: $232,097
📈 ECONOMICS#10,279$119Vol: $75,057

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$68,392
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$33,398,726
Total Redeem
$544,841
Portfolio
$2,442
Predictions
3051
total markets
Trades
14945B / 5980S
Daily Volume
$8,213
Account Age
525d
since Jan 19, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$31
Vol: $26,778
Week
$419
Vol: $237,860
Month
$5,203
Vol: $1,131,536
All Time
$68,392
Vol: $33,398,726

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
95%
228W / 11L events
Realized PnL
$755,388
Win Rate
54%
242W / 205L
Profit Factor
0.04x
Avg Win
$401
Avg Loss
$-10,618

Top Winners

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5$19,949
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 202$11,597
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 15 to January 17,$8,443
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 25–May 2?$4,040
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?$3,811
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?$3,567
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?$3,184
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24,$2,964
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?$2,933
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?$2,747

Top Losers

Will the government shutdown end November 12?$-42,191
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?$-34,840
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?$-29,364
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangal$-29,081
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9,$-28,917
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?$-28,566
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 23 to January 30,$-28,056
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?$-27,928
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 2$-27,530
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12$-27,420

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-1.035
Sortino
-1.223
HHI
85
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.487
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
4.5%
Top-5 markets
13.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
43.1
Active
Markets / Day
1.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
19.6m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.54
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.9

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 80s — typical for humanSize CV 3.54 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.04 — human randomness43 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
32.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
84 entries
<=2
135 entries
<=5
196 entries
<=10
228 entries
<=20
267 entries
<=50
344 entries
>50
120 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)11.3%
Mid (20-55c)24.4%
High (>55c)64.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 66.1%

Up or Down$161
Miami$110
Sao Paulo$0
Shanghai$0
Lucknow$-19,985
New York City$-24,490
Other$-2,035,464

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
318

Single bracket

<=1
233 brackets
<=2
283 brackets
<=3
307 brackets
<=4
313 brackets
<=5
317 brackets
<=8
317 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/27/2025, 4:09:30 AM1 trades$3150 min
2/27/2025, 5:22:47 AM1 trades$1880 min
2/28/2025, 3:02:48 AM1 trades$40 min
2/28/2025, 3:08:46 AM1 trades$1,4690 min
2/28/2025, 3:14:22 AM3 trades$1981 min
2/28/2025, 4:11:42 AM1 trades$1100 min
2/28/2025, 7:32:12 AM2 trades$7024 min
2/28/2025, 9:24:56 AM2 trades$3052 min
2/28/2025, 12:02:25 PM1 trades$4750 min
2/28/2025, 12:34:25 PM2 trades$6971 min
2/28/2025, 2:05:22 PM1 trades$470 min
2/28/2025, 2:55:43 PM1 trades$3200 min
2/28/2025, 3:06:05 PM1 trades$4950 min
2/28/2025, 3:34:53 PM1 trades$3090 min
2/28/2025, 3:44:39 PM1 trades$1270 min
2/28/2025, 3:54:57 PM8 trades$2,4449 min
3/6/2025, 3:49:02 AM1 trades$2600 min
3/6/2025, 4:02:42 AM1 trades$590 min
3/6/2025, 4:13:46 AM1 trades$1330 min
3/6/2025, 5:18:10 AM1 trades$1200 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-28
08-08
12-30
02-18
04-04
05-24

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
20.7% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
28.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 32.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event