Polydata
Short-Statistic

@Short-Statistic

#125,72466

0x3d02d37e9fd377788e6370c95208dd3177b1d900

471d· 428 markets · 4209 tradesVol: $598,4652026-07-01T07:44
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

66
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.18x0/15
Sharpe 0.3056/15
Sortino 424892.82510/10
HHI 9710/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Short-Statistic is an active trader on Polymarket, with a solid track record spanning 401 days and over 4,200 trades across 351 markets. Ranked #125,724 globally by net profit and maintaining a net PnL of $382.19, this trader has managed a portfolio valued at approximately $2,300. Despite moderate profit levels, Short-Statistic holds a good Smart Score of 66/100, indicating consistent performance and disciplined trading behavior.

The trader specializes heavily in weather markets, which make up half of their trading volume, signaling a preference for niche and event-driven markets. With a low sell percentage of 5%, Short-Statistic demonstrates a patient, long-term holding style, supported by badges like Diamond Hands and DCA Master. The 67.1% win rate and a profit factor of 0.18 suggest frequent small wins, but relatively low profit margins per trade. The Sharpe ratio of 0.30 reflects modest risk-adjusted returns, while zero days of max drawdown duration indicate strong capital preservation and risk management.

Short-Statistic’s strengths lie in consistency, a stable equity trend, and specialization in weather markets, leveraging deep domain knowledge and disciplined entry points. However, the low profit factor and modest Sharpe ratio suggest limited upside potential and room for improvement in risk-reward efficiency. The Bot Score of 35/100 confirms human-driven, timely decisions, but the relatively low rank implies that scaling profitability remains a challenge.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+382
Diamond Hands
5% sell
DCA Master
avg 11.4 entries/market
Win Streak
90 wins in a row
Whale
$395,251
Consistent
46/46 days

Categories

8
CRYPTO#7,133$6,618Vol: $371,156
📈 ECONOMICS#666,937$-6,083Vol: $143,708
🌤️ WEATHER#274,911$-106Vol: $83,268
SPORTS#1,439,462$-26Vol: $170
📢 MENTIONS#138,634$-23Vol: $82
🎭 CULTURE#240,156$0Vol: $56
🏛️ POLITICS#392,316$0Vol: $22
💻 TECH#70,701$0Vol: $1

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$382
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$598,465
Total Redeem
$191,969
Portfolio
$2,301
Predictions
428
total markets
Trades
3987B / 222S
Daily Volume
$986
Account Age
471d
since Mar 17, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$31
Vol: $1,967
Week
$66
Vol: $27,966
Month
$31
Vol: $1,967
All Time
$382
Vol: $598,465

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
209W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$19,532
Win Rate
67%
226W / 111L
Profit Factor
0.18x
Avg Win
$151
Avg Loss
$-1,709

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$6,259
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$3,090
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET$2,663
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$1,957
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$1,750
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET$1,748
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET$1,392
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET$1,272
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET$796
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET$745

Top Losers

Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in August?$-12,681
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$-7,468
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET$-6,468
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$-6,259
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$-6,138
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.50-3.75 in August?$-5,862
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$-5,721
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$-4,484
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$-4,415
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$-4,259

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.305
Sortino
inf
HHI
97
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.409
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.2%
Top-5 markets
12.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
12.2
Active
Markets / Day
1.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
1:00 UTC
Median Gap
24s
between trades
Avg Gap
26.1m
between trades
Night Trading
38%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.25
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 24s — typical for humanSize CV 2.25 — diverse, typical for human38% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.14 — human randomness12 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 1:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
11.4
Heavy DCA
<=1
48 entries
<=2
83 entries
<=5
153 entries
<=10
227 entries
<=20
299 entries
<=50
345 entries
>50
6 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.2%
Mid (20-55c)1.8%
High (>55c)97%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 41.6%

Wellington$2,348
London$471
Taipei$347
Buenos Aires$76
Mexico City$70
Paris$34
Lucknow$30
Cape Town$28
Kuala Lumpur$23
Panama City$21
Madrid$21
Sao Paulo$20
Amsterdam$4
Karachi$3
Guangzhou$1
Manila$0
Tel Aviv$0
Miami$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
249

Single bracket

<=1
206 brackets
<=2
220 brackets
<=3
230 brackets
<=4
241 brackets
<=5
246 brackets
<=8
249 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
7/21/2025, 9:13:41 AM2 trades$101 min
7/30/2025, 10:00:01 AM1 trades$100 min
8/24/2025, 5:58:05 AM1 trades$150 min
8/24/2025, 6:05:51 AM1 trades$1440 min
8/24/2025, 6:32:53 AM1 trades$1,7220 min
8/24/2025, 11:12:07 AM1 trades$180 min
8/24/2025, 6:15:25 PM1 trades$430 min
8/24/2025, 10:11:05 PM1 trades$170 min
8/25/2025, 9:47:39 PM1 trades$170 min
8/25/2025, 10:12:33 PM1 trades$170 min
8/26/2025, 9:31:13 AM1 trades$180 min
8/26/2025, 12:02:35 PM1 trades$1760 min
8/27/2025, 10:56:09 AM1 trades$470 min
8/27/2025, 1:25:39 PM1 trades$2390 min
8/27/2025, 1:35:49 PM1 trades$3380 min
8/27/2025, 1:45:09 PM4 trades$1,0847 min
8/27/2025, 2:14:05 PM3 trades$8706 min
8/28/2025, 10:46:49 AM2 trades$211 min
8/28/2025, 12:55:59 PM3 trades$8802 min
8/28/2025, 1:03:57 PM1 trades$4400 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-26
08-14
10-31
06-03
06-11
06-18
06-28
07-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
49.9% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
5.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 11.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event