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Short-Term-Valance

@Short-Term-Valance

#2,942,95710

0xd6966eb1ae7b52320ba7ab1016680198c9e08a49

408d· 4165 markets · 8622 tradesVol: $31,627,775 @yElff_2026-06-29T18:40
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

10
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 13%0/20
Profit Factor 0.66x0/15
HHI 4410/10
Profit Days 29%0/10
DD/Peak 101690%0/10

Summary

Short-Term-Valance is an active trader on Polymarket, with 8,622 trades across 1,817 markets over 362 days. Despite a high total trading volume of over $31 million, this trader is ranked #2,942,957 on the global PnL leaderboard, reflecting a significant net loss of approximately $302,417. Their portfolio value currently stands at around $159,000. The Smart Score of 10/100 indicates that Short-Term-Valance is a beginner in terms of trading sophistication, but the bot score of 55/100 suggests a mixed approach combining automated and manual trading.

This trader exhibits a preference for short-term, high-frequency trading with a strong focus on winning trades, as indicated by a 95% win rate and a profit factor of 4.94. Their style appears to be low risk on individual trades, reflected in a very low sell percentage (1%) and an equity trend that is upward. However, the negative Sharpe ratio (-0.26) signals that returns are not well-compensated for volatility, and the zero-day max drawdown duration implies quick recovery from losses.

Short-Term-Valance’s key strengths include a consistent win streak and a high trading volume that suggests strong market engagement. Their badges such as Diamond Hands and Whale indicate a capacity for holding positions and significant capital deployment. Nevertheless, the substantial net loss and low Smart Score highlight risks related to trading strategy effectiveness and risk management, which may undermine long-term sustainability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Diamond Hands
1% sell
Win Streak
59 wins in a row
Whale
$5,785,442
High Roller
$15,982/day

Categories

1
⚽ SPORTS#1,772,728$-334,861Vol: $31,284,457

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-302,417
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$31,627,775
Total Redeem
$789,641
Portfolio
$159,009
Predictions
4165
total markets
Trades
8522B / 100S
Daily Volume
$15,982
Account Age
408d
since May 25, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-45,446
Vol: $305,151
Week
$-45,446
Vol: $567,469
Month
$13,851
Vol: $3,982,916
All Time
$-302,417
Vol: $31,627,775

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
15%
247W / 1413L events
Realized PnL
$3,611,549
Win Rate
95%
94W / 5L
Profit Factor
4.94x
Avg Win
$2,104
Avg Loss
$-8,012

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $61,992 (39.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?$25,229
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?$19,875
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?$16,889
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5$13,695
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5$10,320
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals$10,273
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5$9,918
Will France win on 2026-06-26?$8,098
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5$7,926
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays$6,870

Top Losers

Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?$-22,025
Will England win on 2026-06-27?$-10,855
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5$-6,699
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5$-318
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?$-162

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.257
Sortino
-0.304
HHI
44
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.326
Kelly %
92.5%
Half-Kelly
46.3%
Top-1 market
2.3%
Top-5 markets
9.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
36.4
Active
Markets / Day
7.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
0:00 UTC
Median Gap
54s
between trades
Avg Gap
34.7m
between trades
Night Trading
33%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.36
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 54s — typical for humanSize CV 3.36 — diverse, typical for human33% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.07 — human randomness36 trades/day — suspiciously high2083 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 0:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.7
Moderate DCA
<=1
1164 entries
<=2
1458 entries
<=5
1662 entries
<=10
1738 entries
<=20
1774 entries
<=50
1794 entries
>50
23 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)12.5%
Mid (20-55c)48.1%
High (>55c)39.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 42%

Other$144,486
Houston$6,870
Toronto$6,216
Atlanta$161
Miami$0
Hong Kong$0
Chicago$0
Denver$0
Seattle$0
San Francisco$0
Dallas$0
Paris$0
Austin$0
Taipei$0
Milan$0
Madrid$0
Tel Aviv$0
Los Angeles$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
1461

Single bracket

<=1
1203 brackets
<=2
1393 brackets
<=3
1443 brackets
<=4
1453 brackets
<=5
1458 brackets
<=8
1461 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/4/2025, 11:45:37 PM1 trades$970 min
11/6/2025, 11:29:07 PM3 trades$2202 min
11/6/2025, 11:54:59 PM1 trades$6100 min
11/7/2025, 12:18:39 AM1 trades$1,5700 min
11/7/2025, 8:28:25 PM1 trades$6930 min
11/7/2025, 9:27:35 PM1 trades$2,2780 min
11/7/2025, 10:51:13 PM1 trades$2480 min
11/8/2025, 4:45:33 PM2 trades$6290 min
11/8/2025, 5:54:25 PM1 trades$2,5830 min
11/8/2025, 6:43:47 PM1 trades$8170 min
11/8/2025, 10:58:23 PM1 trades$2050 min
11/9/2025, 4:50:15 PM1 trades$3,8420 min
11/9/2025, 5:21:33 PM1 trades$1590 min
11/9/2025, 5:36:11 PM1 trades$24,7750 min
11/10/2025, 6:41:17 AM1 trades$870 min
11/11/2025, 3:33:34 AM1 trades$1,2480 min
11/11/2025, 5:22:59 PM1 trades$3490 min
11/11/2025, 5:46:09 PM3 trades$2,2285 min
11/11/2025, 6:14:49 PM1 trades$8280 min
11/11/2025, 6:33:27 PM2 trades$2230 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-06
12-18
01-28
03-09
04-15
05-27
07-04

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0.1% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
1.2% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event