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Short-Term-Valance

@Short-Term-Valance

#2,716,72210

0xd6966eb1ae7b52320ba7ab1016680198c9e08a49

357d· 3662 markets · 6781 tradesVol: $26,400,996 @yElff_2026-05-14T05:08
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

10
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 14%0/20
Profit Factor 0.69x0/15
HHI 5110/10
Profit Days 32%0/10
DD/Peak 18009%0/10

Summary

Short-Term-Valance is a highly active trader on Polymarket, with 6,781 trades executed across 1,716 markets over 192 days. Despite a substantial total trading volume of $26.4 million, their net PnL stands at a negative $218,995.69, placing them at rank #2,716,722 globally. Their portfolio value is relatively low at $1,224.70, and their Smart Score of 10/100 suggests they are still at a beginner level in terms of trading sophistication.

This trader seems to favor a high-frequency, short-term trading approach, as indicated by a high win rate of 93.8% and a profit factor of 4.49, which points to effective trade selection. Their risk profile appears aggressive given the negative Sharpe ratio (-0.26) and a lack of sell-offs, with zero sell percentage indicating they may hold positions without timely exits. The bot score of 55/100 suggests a combination of automated and manual trading, contributing to a steady upward equity trend despite losses.

Short-Term-Valance’s strengths include consistent winning trades and a strong volume presence, supported by badges like Diamond Hands and High Roller, indicating resilience and confidence. However, the significant negative net PnL and low Smart Score highlight potential issues in risk management or market timing. The absence of weather market exposure and a max drawdown duration of zero days show controlled drawdowns, but the overall negative profitability raises concerns about sustainability in Polymarket trading.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
42 wins in a row
Whale
$5,459,340
High Roller
$28,434/day

Categories

2
SPORTS#1,643,174$-215,631Vol: $26,394,574
🎭 CULTURE#630,123$-7Vol: $362

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-218,996
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$26,400,996
Total Redeem
$1,211,205
Portfolio
$1,225
Predictions
3662
total markets
Trades
6776B / 5S
Daily Volume
$28,434
Account Age
357d
since May 25, 2025

Periods

#2
Week
$10,844
Vol: $108,438
Month
$-313,243
Vol: $1,164,309
All Time
$-218,996
Vol: $26,400,996

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
16%
236W / 1253L events
Realized PnL
$3,222,284
Win Rate
94%
120W / 8L
Profit Factor
4.49x
Avg Win
$3,209
Avg Loss
$-10,724

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $116,075 (38.8% of PnL)

Top Winners

Warriors vs. Suns$51,260
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5$33,534
Lakers vs. Thunder$31,281
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers$22,702
Golden Knights vs. Ducks$11,421
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5$11,167
Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5$10,866
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5$10,495
Hawks vs. Knicks$8,378
Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5$7,633

Top Losers

UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main $-34,756
76ers vs. Celtics$-23,693
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox$-12,542
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)$-11,087
Fight to Go the Distance?$-1,751
Ange Bonny: Anytime Goalscorer$-1,468
UFC 327: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)$-296
UFC Fight Night: Charles Radtke vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, $-202

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.263
Sortino
-0.283
HHI
51
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.306
Kelly %
86.4%
Half-Kelly
43.2%
Top-1 market
3.9%
Top-5 markets
11%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
36.3
Active
Markets / Day
9.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
33.4m
between trades
Night Trading
26%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.22
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 114s — typical for humanSize CV 3.22 — diverse, typical for human26% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.08 — human randomness36 trades/day — suspiciously high1848 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.9
Moderate DCA
<=1
1100 entries
<=2
1373 entries
<=5
1574 entries
<=10
1634 entries
<=20
1674 entries
<=50
1694 entries
>50
22 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)5.9%
Mid (20-55c)59.4%
High (>55c)34.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 50.4%

Other$244,346
Chicago$19,242
Madrid$12,810
Los Angeles$12,156
Toronto$4,548
San Francisco$4,463
Miami$1,070
Paris$675
Houston$0
Hong Kong$0
Denver$0
Seattle$0
Dallas$0
Austin$0
Atlanta$0
Taipei$0
Milan$0
Tel Aviv$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
1408

Single bracket

<=1
1164 brackets
<=2
1360 brackets
<=3
1398 brackets
<=4
1404 brackets
<=5
1406 brackets
<=8
1408 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/4/2025, 11:45:37 PM1 trades$970 min
11/6/2025, 11:25:53 PM4 trades$1,4575 min
11/6/2025, 11:54:59 PM1 trades$6100 min
11/7/2025, 12:18:39 AM1 trades$1,5700 min
11/7/2025, 8:28:25 PM1 trades$6930 min
11/7/2025, 9:27:35 PM1 trades$2,2780 min
11/7/2025, 10:51:13 PM1 trades$2480 min
11/8/2025, 4:45:33 PM2 trades$6290 min
11/8/2025, 5:54:25 PM1 trades$2,5830 min
11/8/2025, 6:43:47 PM1 trades$8170 min
11/8/2025, 10:58:23 PM1 trades$2050 min
11/9/2025, 4:50:15 PM1 trades$3,8420 min
11/9/2025, 5:21:33 PM1 trades$1590 min
11/9/2025, 5:36:11 PM1 trades$24,7750 min
11/10/2025, 6:41:17 AM1 trades$870 min
11/11/2025, 3:33:34 AM1 trades$1,2480 min
11/11/2025, 5:22:59 PM1 trades$3490 min
11/11/2025, 5:46:09 PM3 trades$2,2285 min
11/11/2025, 6:14:49 PM1 trades$8280 min
11/11/2025, 6:33:27 PM2 trades$2230 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-06
12-10
01-07
02-12
03-12
04-09
05-11

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.1% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event