Polydata

@Soft-Independence

#2,479,40633

0x80c12889a79de5717208285edbf046ec8ea05f8d

193d· 99 markets · 458 tradesVol: $17,2312026-06-13T19:32
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

33
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 76%20/20
Profit Factor 0.65x0/15
HHI 17210/10
Profit Days 43%3/10

Summary

Soft-Independence is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having executed 458 trades across 99 markets over 193 days. Despite a high win rate of nearly 80%, the trader’s net profit and loss stands at -$155.28, placing them at rank #2,479,406 on the global leaderboard. Their overall Smart Score is 33 out of 100, indicating below-average trading performance compared to peers.

This trader tends to engage in a wide variety of markets but shows no particular focus on weather-related events. With a sell percentage of 36%, Soft-Independence appears to hold positions for some time rather than frequently flipping them. The profit factor of 0.65 and negative Sharpe ratio suggest a high-risk approach with less efficient risk-adjusted returns. The upward equity trend and zero-day max drawdown duration imply consistent, albeit small, gains over time without significant prolonged losses.

Soft-Independence’s strengths include a strong win rate and an equity curve trending upward, signaling skill in selecting winning trades. However, the overall negative net PnL and suboptimal risk metrics highlight potential issues in trade sizing or exit timing. As a manual trader with no bot involvement, their performance is subject to human decision-making biases, which may impact long-term profitability on Polymarket.

Badges

2
Sniper
Win Rate 76%
Win Streak
18 wins in a row

Categories

3
CRYPTO#1,428,589$-155Vol: $16,581
🏛️ POLITICS#453,172$0Vol: $593
SPORTS#640,270$-0Vol: $57

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-155
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$17,231
Total Redeem
$1,519
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
99
total markets
Trades
294B / 164S
Daily Volume
$45
Account Age
193d
since Dec 2, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $672
Week
$1
Vol: $672
Month
$1
Vol: $672
All Time
$-155
Vol: $17,231

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
80%
79W / 20L events
Realized PnL
$-95
Win Rate
80%
79W / 20L
Profit Factor
0.65x
Avg Win
$3
Avg Loss
$-21

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$16
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on Janua$14
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$13
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$11
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$9
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$9
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on Janua$9
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3AM ET$9
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET$7

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$-156
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$-56
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$-56
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 7AM ET$-36
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$-33
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$-33
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 1AM ET$-18
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$-11
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$-9
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$-4

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.233
Sortino
-0.236
HHI
172
Diversified
EV per $1
$-2.606
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
4.1%
Top-5 markets
16.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
15/24
Extended
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
31.4m
between trades
Night Trading
10%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.27
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.2

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 70s — typical for humanSize CV 1.27 — diverse, typical for human10% at night — normal sleep pattern15/24 hours — normal hoursSession CV 1.09 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 8:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3
Moderate DCA
<=1
38 entries
<=2
54 entries
<=5
87 entries
<=10
98 entries
<=20
98 entries
<=50
99 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.3%
Mid (20-55c)11.9%
High (>55c)87.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 37.3%

Other$-149

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
99

Single bracket

<=1
99 brackets
<=2
99 brackets
<=3
99 brackets
<=4
99 brackets
<=5
99 brackets
<=8
99 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/2/2025, 12:08:20 PM1 trades$110 min
12/2/2025, 6:15:08 PM1 trades$110 min
12/3/2025, 7:03:17 AM1 trades$110 min
12/3/2025, 7:20:43 AM1 trades$110 min
1/14/2026, 7:29:34 AM5 trades$5681 min
1/14/2026, 8:13:52 AM2 trades$1941 min
1/14/2026, 8:29:56 AM6 trades$990 min
1/14/2026, 9:27:30 AM5 trades$2321 min
1/18/2026, 4:12:04 PM3 trades$535 min
1/18/2026, 4:45:14 PM2 trades$190 min
1/19/2026, 12:42:16 PM1 trades$1090 min
1/19/2026, 12:53:00 PM1 trades$730 min
1/27/2026, 4:20:55 AM3 trades$285 min
1/27/2026, 5:29:31 AM3 trades$730 min
1/27/2026, 5:44:57 AM2 trades$1501 min
1/27/2026, 5:55:25 AM2 trades$541 min
1/27/2026, 8:24:51 AM5 trades$1406 min
1/27/2026, 9:43:01 AM2 trades$832 min
1/27/2026, 10:53:35 AM2 trades$543 min
1/27/2026, 11:12:57 AM2 trades$781 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-31
01-18
01-27
01-29
02-03
02-05
06-13
06-15

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
35.8% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event