Polydata
Somber-Creativity

@Somber-Creativity

#1,14840

0x69ea0d77ef34f1acb03aaed901df7620fc4215cd

389d· 881 markets · 9227 tradesVol: $5,991,3422026-07-17T11:29
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

40
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 0.18x0/15
HHI 11010/10
Profit Days 70%10/10

Summary

Somber-Creativity is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 9,227 trades across 487 days and a total volume nearing $6 million. Ranked #1148 on the global PnL leaderboard, the trader has generated a net profit of approximately $169,000. Despite a solid win rate of 78.4%, Somber-Creativity’s overall profitability appears limited, reflected in a profit factor of 0.18 and a declining equity trend. The portfolio value currently stands at about $71,855, and the trader’s Sharpe ratio is negative at -0.31, indicating suboptimal risk-adjusted returns.

The trader’s style suggests a preference for a high-frequency, human-driven approach, supported by a low bot score and a relatively low sell percentage of 17%. Somber-Creativity trades broadly across 426 markets, indicating a diversified market exposure. Their badges, including Sniper and DCA Master, imply a focus on precise entries and dollar-cost averaging strategies. However, the zero engagement in weather markets may point to selective market interests. The trader’s risk profile appears conservative in some respects but is undermined by the negative Sharpe ratio and a profit factor well below 1, suggesting challenges in sustaining profits relative to losses.

Somber-Creativity’s key strengths include a high win rate and consistent trading activity, which indicate experience and discipline. However, the low profit factor and downward equity trend raise concerns about the efficiency of their strategy in generating meaningful gains over time. The zero max drawdown duration is notable but may reflect short-term risk management rather than long-term stability. Overall, while Somber-Creativity demonstrates solid trading fundamentals on Polymarket, the data suggests room for improvement in balancing risk and reward to enhance profitability.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Profitable
PnL $+168,972
DCA Master
avg 18.1 entries/market
Win Streak
119 wins in a row
Whale
$3,223,442
Consistent
64/91 days
High Roller
$6,619/day

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#553$91,872Vol: $4,623,080
🎭 CULTURE#372$20,708Vol: $550,914
💻 TECH#38$33,427Vol: $429,237
📢 MENTIONS#343$5,074Vol: $88,905
📈 ECONOMICS#3,019$927Vol: $68,234
SPORTS#129,946$86Vol: $8,993
💰 FINANCE#43,512$16Vol: $1,838

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$168,972
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,991,342
Total Redeem
$1,468,464
Portfolio
$71,855
Predictions
881
total markets
Trades
7673B / 1554S
Daily Volume
$6,619
Account Age
389d
since Jun 22, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$71
Vol: $0
Week
$178
Vol: $1,694
Month
$-745
Vol: $60,495
All Time
$168,972
Vol: $5,991,342

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
132W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$194,401
Win Rate
78%
323W / 89L
Profit Factor
0.18x
Avg Win
$436
Avg Loss
$-8,718

Top Winners

Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?$19,669
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?$9,921
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$8,687
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People o$8,421
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$5,776
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$4,217
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People o$4,192
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$3,814
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?$3,459
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$3,385

Top Losers

New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? $-94,998
Will Donald Trump attend Super Bowl LX?$-54,620
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$-50,436
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?$-36,366
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?$-32,435
Will J.D. Vance attend Super Bowl LX?$-31,903
Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)?$-24,108
Will Trump say "Globalist" or "Globalism" during address to UN Ge$-21,522
Will Trump resign today?$-21,346
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?$-19,142

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.306
Sortino
-0.199
HHI
110
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.203
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
2.9%
Top-5 markets
13.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
24.4
Active
Markets / Day
1.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
36.2m
between trades
Night Trading
24%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.30
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 190s — typical for humanSize CV 3.30 — diverse, typical for human24% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.93 — human randomness24 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
18.1
Heavy DCA
<=1
68 entries
<=2
117 entries
<=5
192 entries
<=10
259 entries
<=20
319 entries
<=50
392 entries
>50
33 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.3%
Mid (20-55c)4.7%
High (>55c)95%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 33.9%

New York City$189
Other$-635,087

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.5
Events covered
169

Moderate coverage

<=1
102 brackets
<=2
124 brackets
<=3
139 brackets
<=4
149 brackets
<=5
156 brackets
<=8
162 brackets
>8
7 brackets

Sessions

#12
6/29/2025, 2:06:32 PM1 trades$2,8310 min
7/1/2025, 5:21:25 AM1 trades$1100 min
7/8/2025, 3:43:33 AM1 trades$1,0770 min
7/8/2025, 4:18:33 AM1 trades$510 min
7/8/2025, 6:58:41 AM1 trades$1,2750 min
7/8/2025, 7:40:49 AM1 trades$2,3220 min
7/8/2025, 9:55:15 PM1 trades$5060 min
7/8/2025, 10:38:05 PM1 trades$400 min
7/8/2025, 11:50:43 PM1 trades$280 min
7/9/2025, 12:01:01 AM1 trades$280 min
7/9/2025, 12:13:47 AM1 trades$1000 min
7/9/2025, 12:20:23 AM1 trades$2000 min
7/9/2025, 1:45:25 AM1 trades$10 min
7/9/2025, 6:03:20 AM1 trades$140 min
7/9/2025, 6:40:59 AM3 trades$3184 min
7/9/2025, 6:56:07 AM1 trades$260 min
7/9/2025, 7:39:45 AM1 trades$300 min
7/9/2025, 7:55:53 AM1 trades$260 min
7/9/2025, 8:52:11 AM1 trades$20 min
7/9/2025, 9:15:14 AM1 trades$30 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
01-15
02-21
03-09
04-15
06-04
07-17
01-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
16.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 18.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.5 br/event