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Somber-Creativity

@Somber-Creativity

#92238

0x69ea0d77ef34f1acb03aaed901df7620fc4215cd

332d· 827 markets · 9130 tradesVol: $5,762,9742026-05-15T12:07
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

38
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 0.17x0/15
HHI 11410/10
Profit Days 64%8/10
DD/Peak 50037%0/10

Summary

Somber-Creativity is an active Polymarket trader ranked #922 globally on the PnL leaderboard, with a net profit of $166,665.36 accumulated over 486 days and 9,130 trades. Despite a substantial total volume of nearly $5.8 million across 399 markets, their Smart Score is below average at 38/100, reflecting mixed performance. Their portfolio value currently stands at $80,529.17, and the equity trend has been declining recently.

The trader shows a preference for a high number of trades with a moderate win rate of 76.5%, indicating consistent, but not necessarily large, gains per trade. Somber-Creativity appears to favor a human-driven, fast-paced trading style, with a low sell percentage of 17% and no engagement in weather markets. Their Profit Factor of 0.17 and negative Sharpe Ratio (-0.34) suggest a high-risk approach with volatility in returns and a tendency for drawdowns, despite no recorded max drawdown duration.

Somber-Creativity’s strengths include a strong win streak and experience as indicated by badges like Sniper and DCA Master, which demonstrate skill in timing and averaging down positions. However, the declining equity trend and low Profit Factor highlight potential risks, including susceptibility to losses and inefficiency in capital allocation. Traders observing Somber-Creativity on Polymarket should note these conflicting signals between volume and profitability.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Profitable
PnL $+166,665
DCA Master
avg 19.0 entries/market
Win Streak
110 wins in a row
Whale
$3,062,701
Consistent
46/72 days
High Roller
$6,302/day

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#508$89,607Vol: $4,397,303
🎭 CULTURE#342$20,678Vol: $549,460
💻 TECH#35$33,427Vol: $429,237
📢 MENTIONS#320$5,074Vol: $88,905
📈 ECONOMICS#2,694$927Vol: $68,234
SPORTS#121,927$75Vol: $7,855
💰 FINANCE#39,147$16Vol: $1,838

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$166,665
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,762,974
Total Redeem
$1,360,189
Portfolio
$80,529
Predictions
827
total markets
Trades
7546B / 1584S
Daily Volume
$6,302
Account Age
332d
since Jun 22, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$197
Vol: $5,502
Week
$1,043
Vol: $28,255
Month
$4,468
Vol: $67,276
All Time
$166,665
Vol: $5,762,974

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
134W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$184,449
Win Rate
76%
289W / 89L
Profit Factor
0.17x
Avg Win
$444
Avg Loss
$-8,372

Top Winners

Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?$19,669
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?$9,921
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$8,687
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People o$8,421
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$5,776
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People o$4,192
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$3,814
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?$2,894
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$2,747
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of $2,667

Top Losers

New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? $-94,998
Will Donald Trump attend Super Bowl LX?$-54,620
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$-50,436
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?$-36,366
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?$-32,435
Will J.D. Vance attend Super Bowl LX?$-31,903
Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)?$-24,108
Will Trump say "Globalist" or "Globalism" during address to UN Ge$-21,522
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?$-19,142
Will Trump visit Gaza by Oct 31?$-18,466

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.342
Sortino
-0.241
HHI
114
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.207
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.1%
Top-5 markets
14.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
28.6
Active
Markets / Day
1.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
12:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
33.5m
between trades
Night Trading
24%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.35
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 190s — typical for humanSize CV 3.35 — diverse, typical for human24% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.93 — human randomness29 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 12:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
19
Heavy DCA
<=1
59 entries
<=2
102 entries
<=5
167 entries
<=10
232 entries
<=20
293 entries
<=50
366 entries
>50
32 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.3%
Mid (20-55c)4.8%
High (>55c)94.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 35.8%

New York City$189
Other$-617,016

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.5
Events covered
158

Moderate coverage

<=1
95 brackets
<=2
120 brackets
<=3
132 brackets
<=4
140 brackets
<=5
148 brackets
<=8
151 brackets
>8
7 brackets

Sessions

#12
6/29/2025, 2:06:32 PM1 trades$2,8310 min
7/1/2025, 5:21:25 AM1 trades$1100 min
7/8/2025, 3:43:33 AM1 trades$1,0770 min
7/8/2025, 4:18:33 AM1 trades$510 min
7/8/2025, 6:58:41 AM1 trades$1,2750 min
7/8/2025, 7:40:49 AM1 trades$2,3220 min
7/8/2025, 9:55:15 PM1 trades$5060 min
7/8/2025, 10:38:05 PM1 trades$400 min
7/8/2025, 11:50:43 PM1 trades$280 min
7/9/2025, 12:01:01 AM1 trades$280 min
7/9/2025, 12:13:47 AM1 trades$1000 min
7/9/2025, 12:20:23 AM1 trades$2000 min
7/9/2025, 1:45:25 AM1 trades$10 min
7/9/2025, 6:03:20 AM1 trades$140 min
7/9/2025, 6:40:59 AM3 trades$3184 min
7/9/2025, 6:56:07 AM1 trades$260 min
7/9/2025, 7:39:45 AM1 trades$300 min
7/9/2025, 7:55:53 AM1 trades$260 min
7/9/2025, 8:52:11 AM1 trades$20 min
7/9/2025, 9:15:14 AM1 trades$30 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
01-09
02-04
02-24
03-08
03-27

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
17.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 19/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.5 br/event