Polydata

@Sorrowful-Caper

#2,233,9959

0x9fcb193e7c8498f3665a54acfb395d2df75b6de8

394d· 88 markets · 731 tradesVol: $26,2912026-07-14T21:00
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

9
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 41%6/20
Profit Factor 0.53x0/15
HHI 62410/10
Profit Days 42%3/10
DD/Peak 4577%0/10

Summary

Sorrowful-Caper is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with 731 trades across 88 markets over 411 days. Their net PnL stands at -$36.77, placing them at rank #2,233,995 on the global leaderboard. Despite a relatively high volume of $26,291 traded, their portfolio value remains low at $11.54, reflecting limited profitability. The trader holds a beginner-level Smart Score of 9/100 and a negative Sharpe ratio of -0.32, indicating challenges in risk-adjusted returns.

Sorrowful-Caper tends to engage in a variety of markets but does not specialize in weather markets, which account for 0% of their activity. Their trading style appears contrarian and somewhat experimental, as suggested by badges like Lottery Player and DCA Master. They maintain a win rate of 56.1%, but the profit factor of 0.65 and a nearly balanced sell percentage of 44% imply cautious risk management with frequent manual interventions rather than algorithmic trading.

The key strengths for Sorrowful-Caper include consistent engagement and an upward equity trend, suggesting gradual portfolio growth. However, the negative PnL and Sharpe ratio highlight potential risks from inconsistent profitability and poor risk-adjusted performance. Their beginner status on Polymarket implies room for strategy refinement to improve outcomes over time.

Badges

4
Lottery Player
84% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
87% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 5.7 entries/market
Win Streak
16 wins in a row

Categories

2
₿ CRYPTO#1,323,684$-36Vol: $16,964
🎭 CULTURE#434,300$-0Vol: $9,302

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-37
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$26,291
Total Redeem
$15
Portfolio
$12
Predictions
88
total markets
Trades
408B / 323S
Daily Volume
$8
Account Age
394d
since Jun 15, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $4
Week
$0
Vol: $10
Month
$1
Vol: $29
All Time
$-37
Vol: $26,291

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
41%
13W / 19L events
Realized PnL
$-38
Win Rate
56%
46W / 35L
Profit Factor
0.65x
Avg Win
$2
Avg Loss
$-3

Top Winners

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March$18
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March$11
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March$7
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March$6
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March$4
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March$3
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 16?$2
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March$2
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March$2
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March$2

Top Losers

Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 16?$-20
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March$-17
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March$-16
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March$-16
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 17?$-10
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March$-10
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 14?$-5
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March$-4
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March$-2
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025?$-2

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.319
Sortino
-0.253
HHI
6241
Concentrated
EV per $1
$-3.367
Kelly %
48.9%
Half-Kelly
24.5%
Top-1 market
78.5%
Top-5 markets
93%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
12:00 UTC
Median Gap
50s
between trades
Avg Gap
17.3m
between trades
Night Trading
4%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
15.85
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
5 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.5

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 50s — typical for humanSize CV 15.85 — diverse, typical for human4% at night — normal sleep pattern22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.94 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 12:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
5.7
Active DCA
<=1
40 entries
<=2
56 entries
<=5
63 entries
<=10
63 entries
<=20
66 entries
<=50
70 entries
>50
2 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)83.6%
Mid (20-55c)3.7%
High (>55c)12.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 9.1%

Up or Down$3
Other$-40

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.8
Events covered
32

Moderate coverage

<=1
13 brackets
<=2
22 brackets
<=3
26 brackets
<=4
29 brackets
<=5
29 brackets
<=8
29 brackets
>8
3 brackets

Sessions

#12
6/15/2025, 9:40:37 AM5 trades$57 min
6/15/2025, 1:24:45 PM1 trades$10 min
6/15/2025, 1:47:49 PM2 trades$21 min
6/15/2025, 1:59:29 PM1 trades$10 min
6/15/2025, 2:41:47 PM6 trades$56 min
6/15/2025, 2:54:07 PM3 trades$31 min
6/15/2025, 6:23:03 PM1 trades$00 min
6/15/2025, 8:09:11 PM1 trades$10 min
6/15/2025, 8:16:31 PM4 trades$31 min
6/15/2025, 8:23:47 PM1 trades$10 min
6/15/2025, 8:32:33 PM3 trades$74 min
6/16/2025, 12:53:53 PM3 trades$61 min
10/25/2025, 8:16:43 PM4 trades$94 min
10/25/2025, 8:27:37 PM1 trades$10 min
10/26/2025, 3:45:07 AM6 trades$161 min
11/7/2025, 7:22:43 PM3 trades$201 min
11/7/2025, 7:35:13 PM1 trades$2,5010 min
11/7/2025, 7:58:59 PM1 trades$100 min
11/7/2025, 8:21:51 PM3 trades$1,4493 min
11/7/2025, 8:31:19 PM5 trades$3308 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
10-27
03-14
06-11
07-12
07-15
07-16

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
44.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 5.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.8 br/event