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@Sour-Conspiracy

#2,725,47178

0x084a6cf34c558258339d243f7ad15f5c665b2a51

237d· 2896 markets · 2175 tradesVol: $122,9912026-06-22T15:26
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

78
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 84%20/20
Profit Factor 3.25x15/15
Sharpe 0.3256/15
Sortino 0.4454/10
EV $+0.0452/10
HHI 38710/10
Profit Days 87%10/10
DD/Peak 9%10/10

Summary

Sour-Conspiracy is a highly active Polymarket trader with 2,175 trades across 704 markets over nearly a full year of activity. Despite a negative net PnL of $-661.99, their smart score of 78/100 indicates strong analytical skills and trading discipline. Ranked #2,725,471 globally, Sour-Conspiracy maintains a consistent presence with a total trading volume of $122,991 and a portfolio value currently at $126.19.

This trader exhibits a contrarian and sniper-style approach, favoring precision timing and selective entries rather than broad market exposure. Sour-Conspiracy avoids weather markets and holds positions mainly through buying, with a low sell percentage of 14%, reflecting a preference for longer-term investments. Their high win rate of 95.5% and profit factor of 3.25 suggest a conservative risk profile, focusing on steady gains rather than high-risk, high-reward trades. The upward equity trend and zero-day max drawdown duration further reinforce disciplined risk management and timely exits.

Sour-Conspiracy’s key strengths lie in consistency, a strong win streak, and a cool-headed approach under pressure, as reflected in their badges and Sharpe ratio of 0.33. However, the negative net PnL and relatively low portfolio value highlight potential issues with position sizing or market selection. The semi-bot trading style suggests reliance on both automated and manual strategies, which may introduce complexity and occasional inefficiencies in execution.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 84%
Contrarian
96% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
87 wins in a row
Consistent
60/69 days
Cool Head
DD 9%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#1,453,184$-62Vol: $53,408
CRYPTO#1,504,021$-371Vol: $44,792
💰 FINANCE#619,235$-214Vol: $19,776
📈 ECONOMICS#73,583$3Vol: $2,256
📢 MENTIONS#94,537$-2Vol: $1,010
SPORTS#1,278,858$-10Vol: $897
🎭 CULTURE#149,081$1Vol: $669
🌤️ WEATHER#186,255$-1Vol: $101
💻 TECH#169,392$-1Vol: $47

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-662
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$122,991
Total Redeem
$2,605
Portfolio
$126
Predictions
2896
total markets
Trades
1879B / 296S
Daily Volume
$41
Account Age
237d
since Nov 7, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$3
Vol: $92
Week
$3
Vol: $95
Month
$21
Vol: $8,481
All Time
$-662
Vol: $122,991

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
85%
251W / 44L events
Realized PnL
$1,265
Win Rate
95%
504W / 24L
Profit Factor
3.25x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-10

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $239 (46.2% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$177
Solana Up or Down on April 10?$31
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?$31
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 20?$28
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8AM ET$22
Solana Up or Down on April 12?$19
Solana Up or Down on April 7?$18
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?$14
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 16?$7
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 23?$7

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28?$-48
Solana Up or Down on April 15?$-43
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 17?$-32
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on April 30?$-27
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6?$-13
Iran coup attempt by June 30?$-10
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9PM ET$-6
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7AM ET$-6
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1PM ET$-6
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6PM ET$-6

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.326
Sortino
0.445
HHI
387
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.045
Kelly %
77.8%
Half-Kelly
38.9%
Top-1 market
15.1%
Top-5 markets
36.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
21.5
Active
Markets / Day
7.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
11.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
51.9m
between trades
Night Trading
11%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.62
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.6

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 672s — typical for humanSize CV 1.62 — diverse, typical for human11% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.03 — human randomness22 trades/day — suspiciously high306 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.7
Moderate DCA
<=1
151 entries
<=2
507 entries
<=5
668 entries
<=10
690 entries
<=20
698 entries
<=50
700 entries
>50
2 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)8.6%
Mid (20-55c)87.8%
High (>55c)3.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 54.6%

Other$473
Up or Down$40
Munich$4

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
694

Single bracket

<=1
689 brackets
<=2
692 brackets
<=3
692 brackets
<=4
693 brackets
<=5
694 brackets
<=8
694 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/13/2026, 9:15:53 AM3 trades$221 min
3/13/2026, 9:22:59 AM2 trades$314 min
3/13/2026, 10:00:41 AM1 trades$150 min
3/13/2026, 10:13:07 AM1 trades$160 min
3/13/2026, 12:49:55 PM4 trades$235 min
3/13/2026, 1:23:35 PM1 trades$210 min
3/13/2026, 1:46:13 PM1 trades$220 min
3/13/2026, 2:03:17 PM3 trades$213 min
3/13/2026, 3:20:53 PM3 trades$190 min
3/13/2026, 5:51:15 PM1 trades$140 min
3/13/2026, 6:29:51 PM1 trades$150 min
3/13/2026, 8:32:37 PM1 trades$100 min
3/13/2026, 9:02:17 PM2 trades$112 min
3/16/2026, 9:30:29 AM1 trades$30 min
3/16/2026, 1:35:39 PM1 trades$210 min
3/16/2026, 4:38:47 PM4 trades$221 min
3/16/2026, 9:47:13 PM3 trades$162 min
3/17/2026, 8:09:15 AM2 trades$243 min
3/17/2026, 8:17:57 AM1 trades$210 min
3/17/2026, 8:24:05 AM1 trades$210 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-31
04-11
04-22
05-03
05-16
06-02
06-21

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0.3% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
13.6% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event