Polydata
Squanchy_

@Squanchy_

#12,54287

0x4d891f7bbf1de5a2c74cb9d718dc64cb743a5382

168d· 249 markets · 1711 tradesVol: $113,2772026-05-23T17:09
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

87
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 72%20/20
Profit Factor 92.51x15/15
Sharpe 0.1282/15
Sortino 38.67410/10
EV $+10.64510/10
HHI 26710/10
Profit Days 76%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Squanchy_ is an experienced Polymarket trader with a strong presence, ranking #12542 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 376 days, they have executed 1,711 trades across 248 markets, generating a net PnL of $10,050.11 from a total volume of $113,277. Their portfolio value remains stable at $1,030.99, supported by an elite Smart Score of 87/100, indicating consistent and profitable performance.

The trading style of Squanchy_ is characterized by a moderate risk profile and a preference for weather markets, which make up 17% of their activity. With a win rate of 69.2% and a profit factor of 8.05, they demonstrate a strong ability to identify value and capitalize on opportunities. They tend to execute trades quickly but maintain a balanced approach, as shown by their 54% sell rate and a Sharpe ratio of 0.13, which reflects modest risk-adjusted returns. Their badge collection, including Sniper and Contrarian, suggests a strategic and opportunistic approach to market timing.

Squanchy_’s strengths lie in their consistency, high win rate, and adaptability across diverse markets on Polymarket. Their zero-day max drawdown duration highlights effective risk management, minimizing prolonged periods of loss. However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio may indicate limited upside volatility capture, and their human-like trading speed could expose them to execution risks during fast-moving events. Overall, Squanchy_ presents a reliable profile with room to enhance risk-adjusted performance.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 72%
Profitable
PnL $+10,050
Contrarian
51% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
29 wins in a row
Consistent
55/72 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

8
🎭 CULTURE#13,743$189Vol: $57,823
🌤️ WEATHER#153$9,393Vol: $28,408
SPORTS#90,049$146Vol: $13,690
🏛️ POLITICS#55,256$121Vol: $6,541
📈 ECONOMICS#7,430$186Vol: $4,287
💰 FINANCE#57,003$7Vol: $2,184
CRYPTO#246,521$6Vol: $295
💻 TECH#39,331$1Vol: $15

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$10,050
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$113,277
Total Redeem
$19,631
Portfolio
$1,031
Predictions
249
total markets
Trades
783B / 928S
Daily Volume
$117
Account Age
168d
since Dec 6, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$24
Vol: $594
Week
$9,399
Vol: $44,337
Month
$9,462
Vol: $54,044
All Time
$10,050
Vol: $113,277

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
78%
126W / 36L events
Realized PnL
$10,117
Win Rate
69%
166W / 69L
Profit Factor
8.05x
Avg Win
$62
Avg Loss
$-18

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $9,594 (107.2% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 22?$9,354
Will gas hit (High) $3.75 by March 31?$136
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?$104
Will G2 Esports win Masters Santiago 2026?$66
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by January 31?$55
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March?$32
Will gas hit (High) $3.50 by March 31?$29
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 20?$24
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs Black Dragons e-Sports (BO3) - So$23
Will gas hit (High) $3.35 by March 31?$18

Top Losers

Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?$-1,104
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 12$-47
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on Mar$-14
Will AMC Entertainment (AMC) beat quarterly earnings?$-8
Will "Sinners" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?$-7
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - South America L$-7
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT Masters S$-6
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-03-11?$-5
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-03-11?$-5
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026$-5

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.128
Sortino
38.674
HHI
267
Diversified
EV per $1
$10.645
Kelly %
51.8%
Half-Kelly
25.9%
Top-1 market
10.6%
Top-5 markets
23.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
11.1
Active
Markets / Day
1.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
47.8m
between trades
Night Trading
20%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.09
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.6

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 161s — typical for humanSize CV 3.09 — diverse, typical for human20% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.86 — human randomness11 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.2
Moderate DCA
<=1
149 entries
<=2
196 entries
<=5
231 entries
<=10
241 entries
<=20
245 entries
<=50
246 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)10.2%
Mid (20-55c)42.7%
High (>55c)47.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 48.6%

Tokyo$9,354
Shenzhen$24
Seattle$13
Buenos Aires$12
Helsinki$8
New York City$3
Austin$1
Taipei$1
Seoul$1
Houston$1
Russia$0
London$0
Mexico City$0
Sao Paulo$0
Karachi$-0
Denver$-0
Kuala Lumpur$-0
Jeddah$-2

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
165

Single bracket

<=1
125 brackets
<=2
147 brackets
<=3
156 brackets
<=4
160 brackets
<=5
160 brackets
<=8
164 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/20/2025, 7:39:25 PM1 trades$10 min
12/20/2025, 9:33:29 PM2 trades$33 min
12/20/2025, 9:44:21 PM1 trades$10 min
12/20/2025, 10:16:45 PM1 trades$10 min
12/20/2025, 10:26:21 PM1 trades$10 min
12/20/2025, 10:53:07 PM1 trades$10 min
12/20/2025, 10:59:45 PM1 trades$10 min
12/20/2025, 11:41:37 PM4 trades$43 min
12/21/2025, 8:55:12 PM1 trades$20 min
12/21/2025, 10:02:02 PM5 trades$52 min
12/21/2025, 10:15:24 PM2 trades$23 min
12/22/2025, 8:11:59 PM2 trades$21 min
12/22/2025, 8:34:25 PM3 trades$71 min
1/1/2026, 10:40:33 PM1 trades$10 min
1/1/2026, 10:58:19 PM1 trades$10 min
1/1/2026, 11:03:27 PM1 trades$50 min
1/2/2026, 2:33:41 PM1 trades$10 min
1/2/2026, 2:51:31 PM1 trades$50 min
1/2/2026, 4:50:05 PM1 trades$50 min
1/2/2026, 5:01:35 PM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
01-14
03-01
03-14
04-06
05-11

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
16.9% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
54.2% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event